1qGLG9p

Recommendations

Info

26 Deleveraging, What Deleveraging Figure 3.6 Leverage and potential GDP growth 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 World Potential nom. GDP growth (HP filter) Debt ex-financials: % of GDP (rhs) 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 Emerging markets Potential nom. GDP growth (HP filter) Debt ex-financials: % of GDP (rhs) 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Developed markets Potential nom. GDP growth (HP filter) Debt ex-financials: % of GDP (rhs) 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 Source: Authors’ calculation based on OECD, IMF and national accounts data. See Data Appendix at the end of the report.
Leverage cycles 27 Appendix 3A: The leverage cycle Figure 3A.1 The leverage cycle Absorption of innovation Innovation Optimism on growth Credit expansion Reduction in growth prospects Scaling back of expected credit Crisis Structural Reforms Default (Inflation) Slow deleveraging Figure 3A.1 lays out the sequence of events associated with the leverage cycle. Each box marks a distinct episode in the cycle. An episode typically begins with an innovation that resets the landscape, whether a technological breakthrough that advances the production function, a financial innovation that creates a new instrument or opens markets, or a distinct change in the legal regime. Prior technological innovations include the invention of the diving bell, the canal building boom, the great expansion of railroads, the routinised refrigeration of beef that opened the Pampas of Argentina, the advent of radio, the widespread adoption of television, and that improvements in fibre optics that made the internet scalable. Financial innovation over the ages included the recognition that the tulip bulb could be a store of value, that notes on the government could be tradable (as in the South Sea Bubble), that equity in homes could be unlocked, or that individual claims could be pooled and their income flows tiered in such a way to meet the needs of different investors. 16 Legal changes altered the landscape of finance with the opening of capital accounts across many economies from the 16 Kindleberger and Aliber (2011) is the classic reference on this topic. On tulips, see also Dash (2009).
Page 1: Geneva Reports on the World Economy
Page 4 and 5: International Center for Monetary a
Page 6 and 7: International Center for Monetary a
Page 8 and 9: Acknowledgements We thank Susan Lun
Page 11 and 12: List of Conference Participants Edm
Page 13 and 14: List of Conference Participants xi
Page 15 and 16: List of Conference Participants xii
Page 17: Foreword Since 1999 the Geneva Repo
Page 20 and 21: 2 Deleveraging, What Deleveraging 1
Page 22 and 23: 4 Deleveraging, What Deleveraging S
Page 24 and 25: 6 Deleveraging, What Deleveraging l
Page 26 and 27: 8 Deleveraging, What Deleveraging i
Page 29 and 30: 2 Global debt analysis: Deleveragin
Page 31 and 32: Global debt analysis: Deleveraging
Page 33 and 34: Global debt analysis: Deleveraging
Page 35: Global debt analysis: Deleveraging
Page 38 and 39: 20 Deleveraging, What Deleveraging
Page 94 and 95:
76 Deleveraging, What Deleveraging
Page 96 and 97:
Page 98 and 99:
Page 100 and 101:
Page 102 and 103:
Page 105 and 106:
6 Discussions Morning discussion Ma
Page 107 and 108:
Discussions 89 He also agreed with
Page 109 and 110:
Discussions 91 urged the authors to
Page 111 and 112:
Discussions 93 moving demographic c
Page 113 and 114:
Discussions 95 about potential GDP
Page 115 and 116:
Discussions 97 when there is no com
Page 117 and 118:
Discussions 99 In response to Laure
Page 119 and 120:
Data Appendix Debt typically expres
Page 121 and 122:
References Adrian, T., E. Moench an
Page 123 and 124:
References 105 Jorda, O., M. Schula
Page 125:
It is widely accepted that high lev
show all

1qGLG9p

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?