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Box 7-2: Four futures for EuropeDe Mooij en Tang (2004) have developed four scenarios for the future development of the internationaleconomy. These scenario’s provide a structure for discussing the way forward in the Amsterdammetropolitan area in a comprehensive framework. The key variables for the scenario’s are shown in thefigure below. Depending on the degree of cooperation in the international arena and the degree ofcompetitiveness in the international economy, four quadrants can be isolated.This report focuses on Global Economy and Regional Communities as the two scenario’s which bestrepresent two distinct futures: one in which public responsibilities are leading and one which strongly leanson private responsibilities.Global Economy: Economic integration in this scenario is broad and global. As countries find it in theirmutual interest, the new WTO round succeeds and economic integration in an enlarging European Unionintensifies. The problem of climate change intensifies. National institutions become increasingly based onprivate initiatives and market-based solutions. European governments concentrate on their core tasks, suchas the provision of pure public goods and the protection of property rights. They engage less in incomeredistribution (not only between rich and poor but also between young and old) and public insurance.Incomes become more unequal, but grow relatively fast on average. Besides, social-economic mobility ishigh.Regional communities: In this scenario, the world is fragmented into a number of trade blocks, andmultilateral cooperation is modest. European countries rely on collective arrangements to maintain anequitable distribution of welfare and to control local environmental problems. At the same time,governments in this scenario are unsuccessful in modernizing welfare-state arrangements. A strong lobbyof vested interests blocks reforms in various areas. Together with an expanding public sector, thisdevelopment puts a severe strain on European economies.Source: De Mooij and Tang (2004)7.4.3 The action plan linked to the regional communities scenarioThe strategies to be based on the two scenarios are organized as follows. Regional communitiesfocuses on public leadership as the main driver for action. It requires the stakeholders in theAmsterdam metropolitan area to cooperate much more closely than is currently the case. Publicleadership is needed to achieve this. The increased cooperation will result in a joint innovationstrategy for the whole metropolitan area. Also the governance system is ‘rationalized’ in order toincrease the ‘focus and mass’ of innovation programs. This means that the region is making clearchoices concerning the key economic clusters to be supported by the joint regional innovationprogram (backing or picking winners). The funds needed for the execution of this program areraised from both public and private sources. The extra public funds are needed to stimulate anincreased effort from private investors. After all, the supposition of this scenario is that capital134
mobility in the world is slackening due to trade blocks and an unfavorable international climatefor unrestricted global capitalism. The clear focus of the joint regional innovation strategy helpsthe HEIs to meet the regional demand for their services.For the labor market regional communities implies a moderated skill biased growth. This meansthat the risk of a divided labor market is lower. Social problems such as the high unemploymentrate at the lower end of the labor market call for an activist approach by the regional authorities.This will probably mean increased public investment in active labor market policies. Extrainvestment in education and schooling is part of this approach. The HEIs will be asked to playtheir part in building a regional learning system allowing students and workers to better employand develop their talents.Regional communities also means strong public support for the cultural sector and sustainabledevelopment. The Amsterdam metropolitan area will invest in a dynamic cultural climate whichenhances its attractiveness for foreign companies and workers. Sustainable development will beone of the key sectors in this scenario, receiving support from national regulation demandinghigher energy efficiency and lower CO2 emissions. Also the regional authorities will act aslaunching customers, which may boost the sustainability cluster in the region. The HEIs probablycontinue to act as exemplary organizations, developing good practices for sustainabledevelopment and investing in new research and knowledge transfers.Bottlenecks in the transport and road infrastructure are solved through extra public investment.The housing market will remain troublesome, given that the role for social housing associations isstrengthened rather than reduced. The rental market is not liberalized.The reverse side of the strategy outlined here is a high fiscal burden. This puts a strain onentrepreneurship which will in this scenario remain one of the weak points in the economicstructure of the Amsterdam metropolitan area.7.4.4 The action plan building on the global competition scenarioIn the global competition scenario the main driver for action is private initiative. In this scenariothe stakeholders in the Amsterdam metropolitan area are forced to work together in order tomaintain the competitive position of the region. But in this case the incentives for increasedcooperation are mainly market driven. This means that new joint initiatives are developedbottom-up, a bit in the manner it is currently done. The regional authorities are mainly acting asintermediary channels aiming to bridge the gap between the different stakeholders. In thissituation it is unlikely that a joint regional innovation strategy will emerge. The focus on marketdriven project emerging bottom-up implies that the innovation system branches like a tree. Therisks of trying to shape this tree in a particular direction are probably also greater. Picking orbacking winners is risky due to the possibility of wrongly directed investments. In the world ofglobal competition the market decides which innovations emerge as the winners. That is, theymust develop bottom-up. The preferred approach to innovation stimulation is through generalmeasures supporting favorable regional preconditions for innovation. City marketing willtherefore become a more important instrument for the regional authorities, building on the worldclass reputation of the knowledge institutes in the region and the attractiveness of its livingenvironment.The intense competition in the world economy forms a pull factor for the development of aknowledge-based services economy in the Amsterdam metropolitan area. This will prove thecompetitive edge of the region as one of the major global business gateways of the world. Thisposition greatly increases the pressure on the HEIs to meet the demand from the regionalcommunity for higher educated workers and innovative scientific knowledge. Increased demanddriven research and education will therefore be of paramount importance to the success of theglobal business gateway. The HEIs in this scenario are regionally anchored and have importanteconomic impact on the region. The global competition scenario also means that the working135
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Please cite this paper as:SEO Econo
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2.3 Higher education and the labor
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6.3 Mechanisms to promote regional
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Table 4-4: Completion rates of diff
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LSCA Life Sciences Center Amsterdam
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such as regional authorities and th
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1. OVERVIEW OF THE REGION1.1 Introd
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the southEastern part of Amsterdam
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elatively bad accessibility of the
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metropolitan area exceeded that of
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egion suffer from one of the follow
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Figure 1-7: Dropouts secondary educ
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Figure 1-9: Employment in Amsterdam
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high-tech sectors is relatively hig
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1.4.4 Labor market indicatorsTable
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The central government is responsib
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implemented. There is also an admin
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2 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HIGHER EDU
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Source: MinOCW (2007a: 68), EU (199
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(ibid: 83). In part, this new syste
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Table 2-1: Student enrolment at UAS
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Figure 2-5: Students at universitie
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Figure 2-6: Participation in tertia
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also show a continued high demand f
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not receive funding from the govern
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of diplomas awarded and the number
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decision is up to the HEI itself. I
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Figure 3-1: Components of an innova
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3.2.3 National funding frameworkThe
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challenge for the years to come wil
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Figure 3-3: R&D expenditures in Noo
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Amsterdam Topstad programme.Creativ
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3.5.3 Life SciencesGiven the high l
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Figure 3-4: Employment in Amsterdam
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years. Employment in the trade and
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employment has no upward or downwar
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and more efficient exploitation of
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mostly happens in the context of R&
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income related to IP rights. The fa
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Figure 3-6: Regional innovation sys
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HEIs to play this role, as it draws
Page 91 and 92: 4 CONTRIBUTION OF TEACHING & LEARNI
Page 93 and 94: housing market, on the ‘buying ma
Page 95 and 96: transport, finance, financial manag
Page 97 and 98: HvA participates in several initiat
Page 99 and 100: 4.4 Student recruitment and regiona
Page 101 and 102: 4.4.1.2 Recruitment of foreign stud
Page 103 and 104: • HvA has made its educational pr
Page 105 and 106: The HEIs have several external and
Page 107 and 108: Table 4-4: Completion rates of diff
Page 109 and 110: 4.7 Enhancing the regional learning
Page 111 and 112: 4.8 ConclusionTable 4-6: SWOTStreng
Page 113: Amsterdam is matched by a relative
Page 116 and 117: The challenge for future social pol
Page 118 and 119: The VU likewise develops research p
Page 120 and 121: directing, documentary directing, s
Page 122 and 123: the university to improve its energ
Page 125 and 126: 6.1 Introduction6 CAPACITY BUILDING
Page 127 and 128: Figure 6-1: Organization chart Vrij
Page 129 and 130: There are also examples of more spe
Page 131 and 132: Box 6-2: Obstacles for collaboratio
Page 133 and 134: eyond labor market studies, there a
Page 135 and 136: 7 CONCLUSIONS: MOVING BEYOND THE SE
Page 137 and 138: …requires different forms of coop
Page 139 and 140: at higher levels in order to mainta
Page 141: to increase the interaction between
Page 145 and 146: ecause they are better informed abo
Page 147 and 148: REFERENCESAalders, R., A. Bakkeren,
Page 149 and 150: EZ Amsterdam (2006), “Research Bu
Page 151 and 152: MinOCW (2007a), “The Education Sy
Page 153 and 154: SER (2008), “Duurzame Globaliseri
Page 155: Versleijen, A., van der Meulen, B.,
Page 158 and 159: Institution City Type ofHEIANNEX B:
Page 160 and 161: Groningenculture)Hogeschool Amsterd
Page 163 and 164: ANNEX C: KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORSTab
Page 165 and 166: ANNEX E: REGIONAL PARTNERSHIPS OF A
Page 167 and 168: AmsterdamUniversity CollegeOther re
Page 169 and 170: ANNEX F: BUSINESSES REPRESENTED IN
Page 171 and 172: GLOSSARYBologna DeclarationForeign
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