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university graduates, 61% has followed a study which provides good or very good labor marketprospects. The worst shortages are expected to occur in the sectors construction, banking andinsurance, catering and professional services, health, and government and education (ROA, 2007:12). The effects of the recent ‘credit crisis’, however, have not been incorporated in the ROAreport and it is therefore expected that demand for labor in the sectors construction, banking andinsurance, and catering and professional services will turn out much lower than predicted.The demand for labor in the sectors health, government and education is of a more structuralnature. A surprising observation is that the labor market prospects for graduates with secondaryeducation (VMBO, HAVO and VWO) are relatively good. One reason is that the demand forworkers with only secondary education responds more volatile to economic growth (and in 2007the model assumed relatively strong economic growth). Another reason is that the labor marketprospects for students which follow social-cultural and economic programmes are relatively bad.Another indicator of labor market prospects for students with various educational degrees areunemployment rates per educational level. Unemployment rates are highest for those with onlyprimary education (9.2%). Those with a secondary educational degree are somewhat better off astheir unemployment rate is around 6.5%. People with a tertiary educational degree havesignificantly better chances of finding a job. For those with a bachelors degree (from either aUAS or research university), the unemployment rate is 2.6%. For those with a masters or PhDdegree this is 3.3%. The general picture is that the unemployment rate declines with theeducational level. One interesting observation, however, is that people with a more practiceorientedtertiary education (MBO and HBO/WO bachelor) have better labor market prospectsthan those with a masters or PhD degree from a research university. Among all educationallevels, those with a more technical-oriented study tend to have better labor market prospects thanthose who follow a more social/economic-oriented study.Table 2-7: Labor market prospects per educational levelGraduates with goodUnemployment (%)or very good labormarket prospects for2007-11 (%)Primary education 0 Primary education 9.2VMBO 50 VMBO 6.5HAVO/VWO 100 HAVO/VWO 6.4MBO 27 MBO(2&3), 4.6, 3.1MBO(4)HBO 45 HBO/WO 2.6bachelorWO 61 WO master, PhD 3.3Total 44Source: ROA (2007), Statistics Netherlands Statline (2007a)The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis performs regular analysis to establish thedemand and supply of workers by social and demographic types. One such analysis is “Laborsupply by social-demographic characteristics” (published in 2006, only available in Dutch). Thecombined job centers run by the government, represented in the Centers for Work and Income(Centrum voor Werk en Inkomen or CWI), collect data on vacancies. Partly based on these dataand based on the ROA and other government agencies’ economic analyses, the Council for Workand Income (Raad voor Werk en Inkomen) publishes labor market analyses and forecasts. These44