Fraser River Sockeye Fisheries and Fisheries Management - Cohen ...

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List of TablesTable 1 Annual estimates of the harvest of Fraser sockeye by Canadian and US fisheries,1986-2009 (extracted from PSC annual reports). .............................................. 18Table 2 Summary of available information on accuracy, precision and reliability of thecatch monitoring programs used to produce estimates of the harvest of Frasersockeye (2001-2009).......................................................................................... 21Table 3 Annual estimates of the harvest of Fraser sockeye in First Nations fisheries inCanadian marine waters and the upper and lower Fraser River, 1986-2009(extracted from PSC annual reports and DFO records). .................................... 24Table 4 Summary of available information on accuracy, precision and reliability of thecatch monitoring programs used to produce estimates of the harvest of Frasersockeye for First Nations fisheries (2001-09).................................................... 25Table 5 AFS agreements, communal licence holders, and sockeye allocations for theB.C. South Coast and Fraser First Nations in 2009. .......................................... 28Table 6 Summary of available information on accuracy, precision and reliability of thecatch monitoring programs used to estimate the FSC harvest of Fraser sockeye,1992-2000. ......................................................................................................... 29Table 7 Summary of available information on accuracy, precision and reliability of thecatch monitoring programs used to produce estimates of the FSC harvest ofFraser sockeye, 2001-09. ................................................................................... 29Table 8 Interview coverage of the Mission-Sawmill set net fishery expressed as apercentage of the total set nets counted during aerial surveys in each fishing areain each week, 2007-2010 (Matthew Parslow, DFO Annacis, pers. comm.)...... 31Table 9 Annual catch monitoring effort for First Nation FSC fisheries above SawmillCreek, 1996-2010 (Jamie Scroggie, DFO Kamloops, pers. comm.). ................ 33Table 10 Summary of available information on accuracy, precision and reliability of thecatch monitoring programs used to estimate the harvest of Fraser sockeye inFirst Nation Pilot Sales and Economic Opportunity fisheries during threeperiods................................................................................................................ 36Table 11 Comparison of annual sockeye allocations and catch estimates for Musqueamand Tsawwassen First Nations, 1992-2008. ...................................................... 38Table 12 Comparison of annual sockeye allocations and catch estimates for First Nationsincluded in agreements with the Sto:lo Group, 1992-2008. .............................. 39Table 13 Annual estimates of the harvest of Fraser sockeye by Canadian fisheries insideand outside of the Fraser Panel Area waters, 1986-2009 (extracted from PSCannual reports). .................................................................................................. 41Table 14 Summary of available information on accuracy, precision and reliability of thecatch monitoring programs used to produce estimates of the commercial harvestof Fraser sockeye in Canadian waters (2001-2009)........................................... 42Table 15 Fraser River sockeye salmon commercial allocations and harvest by gear type(troll, seine, gillnet) in the South Coast fishery. Percentage values in regularfont show allocations per gear type relative to the total commercial allocation;percentage values in brackets and italics show proportion of actual harvest. ... 477
Table 16 Estimates of Fraser sockeye harvested in Canadian recreational fisheries byyear and by region, 1986-2009. ......................................................................... 50Table 17 Summary of available information on accuracy, precision and reliability of thecatch monitoring programs used to produce estimates of the harvest of Frasersockeye for recreational fisheries, 2001-2009. .................................................. 51Table 18 Survival 1 of sockeye salmon captured by beach seine or angling and releasedeither immediately or following 24 hours of recovery in a net pen (fromDonaldson et al., 2011). ..................................................................................... 60Table 19 List of candidate models and data requirements for Fraser sockeye pre-seasonforecasts (2006-2010) (adapted from Cass et al. 2006). .................................... 72Table 20 Pre-season forecast models used from 2007 to 2010 for the 19 sockeyeindicator stocks (from CSAS 2006; 2007; 2009; 2010)..................................... 73Table 21 Summary of MAPE and Regression Analyses, testing the relationship betweenpre-season forecasts and actual returns for the four run-timing groups and theentire Fraser River forecast. How to interpret statistical outcomes is describedin the text above. Proportional size of CU relative to total Fraser return is theaverage annual value for the period 1980-2009. Similar analyses for the 19indicator stocks are reported in Appendix H. .................................................... 78Table 22 Summary of the accuracy, precision and reliability of mark-recapture, fencecount and visual survey methods used to obtain post-season estimates ofspawning escapement for Fraser sockeye. ......................................................... 89Table 23 Spawning ground escapement estimates for Fraser sockeye derived using markrecapturetechniques, 2006-2009. ...................................................................... 98Table 24 Low escapement benchmarks for each indicator stock and fixed escapementtargets by run-timing group as defined through the Fraser River SockeyeSpawning Initiative (DFO 2009b). .................................................................. 103Table 25 Comparison of post-season escapement targets and observed spawningescapement for Fraser sockeye by run-timing group for 2003-2006. Counts arein 1000s of fish................................................................................................. 105Table 26 Number and average value of commercial fishing permits issued during 2009for the Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery. Values were obtained from theAlaska Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission website (CFEC 2009). ...... 131Table 27 Allocation of commercial sockeye catch between gear groups in Bristol Bay,Alaska. Top values indicate negotiated catch allotments (%) within each fishingdistrict while bottom values in parentheses reflect the 20 year (1990-2009)average of realized allotments. ........................................................................ 133Table 28 Average age composition of sockeye stocks in Bristol Bay, Alaska from 1991-2010. Values represent the average percent of individuals that belong to eachfreshwater age (FA) and ocean age (OA) combination. .................................. 1578
Page 2 and 3: Fraser River Sockeye Fisheriesand F
Page 4 and 5: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. Catch Monitorin
Page 6 and 7: implement harvest rate ceilings to
Page 8 and 9: Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Page 12 and 13: List of FiguresFigure 1 Fraser sock
Page 14 and 15: Figure 21 Estimates of total catch,
Page 16 and 17: List of AppendicesAppendix A Statem
Page 18 and 19: used to (1) estimate catch for each
Page 20 and 21: FISHERIES HARVESTINGOverview of Fis
Page 22 and 23: Figure 1 Fraser sockeye marine migr
Page 24 and 25: Table 2 Summary of available inform
Page 26 and 27: Table 3 provides the annual estimat
Page 28 and 29: Table 4 Summary of available inform
Page 30 and 31: season update teleconference meetin
Page 32 and 33: Catch Estimation MethodsThe procedu
Page 34 and 35: catch estimates was detected using
Page 36 and 37: of precision. The overall rating fo
Page 38 and 39: 1998-00 - No agreements with Sto:lo
Page 40 and 41: initiation of the AFS Agreements in
Page 42 and 43: Table 12 Comparison of annual socke
Page 44 and 45: Table 13 Annual estimates of the ha
Page 46 and 47: Canadian Commercial FisheriesThe pr
Page 48 and 49: logbook systems. In addition to the
Page 50 and 51: Table 15 Fraser River sockeye salmo
Page 52 and 53: Available catch estimates for the r
Page 54 and 55: Table 17 Summary of available infor
Page 56 and 57: anged from less than 100 to over 30
Page 58 and 59: Washington State Recreational Fishe
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equirements have been applied to se
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salmon were biopsied or tagged with
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Stellako-Late Stuart and 531 Adams)
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FISHERIES MANAGEMENTOverview of Pre
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parents of the recruits). Effective
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within the confidence limits. For e
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Table 20 Pre-season forecast models
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different from the straight line),
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Prediction ability of ForecastsProp
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Stock MAPEReturn Explainedby Foreca
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test fisheries are analyzed in-seas
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Inputs to the cumulative-normal mod
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eginning of the runs, but by mid-ru
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Median Absolute Percent Error (1997
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variety of hydroacoustic techniques
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enefited from improved technologies
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Post-season estimates of Escapement
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precision achieved was considerably
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m 3 /sec during the sockeye run. Fi
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Escapement TargetsOur evaluations r
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20% of the average of the 4-year se
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Table 24 Low escapement benchmarks
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Table 25 Comparison of post-season
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fisheries have been permitted to ta
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sub-dominant cycle years (e.g., 200
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SummaryLow Escapement Benchmarks (L
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Extent of OverharvestingThe estimat
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2,000,0001,800,000Early StuartCatch
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Cultus Lake Sockeye Recovery Effort
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Figure 23 Number of adult sockeye e
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Recovery ObjectivesIn anticipation
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2008 the escapement estimate was 34
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BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA SOCKEYE FISHERY
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accurate, precise, and timely, (2)
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The Bay is subjected to large tidal
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activity (Bocking and Peterman 1988
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% of total run45%40%35%30%25%20%15%
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Harvest estimation methodsTotal har
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Millions of sockeyeYearFigure 27 Hi
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management structure complements th
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1.5Togiak4.03.5NushagakMillions of
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Millions of sockeye7.06.05.04.03.02
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logical given the dynamics of the r
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1.61.4Number of fish (millions)1.21
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Pre-season forecastsAs noted above,
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8.0y = 0.79x + 1.59R² = 0.417.8Log
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12010080MAPE60402001971-1980 1981-1
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Median percent error (MPE)3020100-1
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Table 28 Average age composition of
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dampeners to reduce surface turbule
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current year’s run is accounted f
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and 1999 Revised Annexes. This inte
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Bristol Bay was in 1997 when there
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upon by managers to determine when
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STATE OF THE SCIENCECatch Monitorin
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2006) due to concerns regarding the
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RECOMMENDATIONS1. DFO needs to ensu
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LITERATURE CITEDAdkison, M.D. and R
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Beacham, T.D., M. Lapointe, J.R. Ca
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CSAS. 2007 Pre-season run size fore
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Evans, D.G., J.B. Browning and B.G.
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Hardie, D.C., D.A. Nagtegaal, K. He
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Pacific Salmon Commission. 1998. Re
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Robichaud, D., J.J. Smith, K. K. En
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Valderrama, D. and J.L. Anderson. 2
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Appendix A Statement of Work.Cohen
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All sectors3.7 The Contractor will
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“State of the Science”. Comment
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3.3 The Contractor will review and
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Appendix BList of requests to DFO b
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DFO Request 15: Recent CSAS documen
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Item Description DateRequestedReque
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Appendix CFirst Nation catch monito
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Table C-1 Summary of information re
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Table C-2 Weekly catch monitoring e
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Table D-1 Summary of information re
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community of Port Renfrew. The area
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IPrecision ( + % of the estimate)10
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Table E-2 Annual Strait of Georgia
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Table E-4 Annual Johnstone Strait e
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Table E-6 Lower Fraser River recrea
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0 would mean that the forecast does
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the general ups and downs of the ob
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Appendix G Graphical representation
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Early Stuart Timing GroupEarly Stua
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Summer-run Timing GroupSummer run7.
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Fraser River Indicator Stocks (list
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Appendix H Pre-season forecast: sum
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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Appendix I Methods of In-season Sto
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Marine Gillnet Test FisheriesThe gi
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Expansion line (x1000)9080706050403
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Table I-2 Mean values for purse sei
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Figure I-5 Map of test fishing loca
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Appendix J The Hydroacoustics progr
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An SEF project was secured in 2007
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Conservation action Comments Partne
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Table K-2 Summary of actions to rec
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Table L-1 Catch and escapement of s
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Table L-3 Performance criteria of p
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Ratio of annual return to the avera
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Appendix M Reviewer comments on the
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Request #5: Sockeye allocations by
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utility of pre-season forecasts. Pr
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3. Are there additional quantitativ
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made via tagging and experimentatio
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Page 60: The authors make extensive
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ensure the reader does not assume t
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The reported excerpts from Bradford
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(budgets, legal issues, pseudo-cons
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REVIEW 3/3Reviewer Name: Dr Sean Co
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season forecasts that eventually co
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allocation shows "No agreement", an
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size.Figures showing errors for pre
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Goals can easily generate confusion
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Total rows from all these tables be
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Exploitation Rate100%90%80%70%60%50
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Exploitation RateEarly Stuart90%80%
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