Fraser River Sockeye Fisheries and Fisheries Management - Cohen ...

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Ratio of annual return to the average returnfrom 1980 2009 to 20093.02.52.01.51.00.5Fraser (CV=68%)Fraser (CV=68%)0.0198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009Calendar yearFigure L-2 Variability in annual returns for sockeye (all stocks combined) from the Fraser River, B.C. and Bristol Bay,Alaska. The coefficient of variation (CV) in annual returns observed for this time period is reported for eachsystem.L-6
Table L-5 Current sockeye stock assessment activities and uses in Bristol Bay, Alaska. Table was reproduced from Clark(2005).Project/Activity Pre-Season Forecasts In-Season Management Post-Season AssessmentTotal Escapement Assessment(Ugashik, Egegik, Naknek, Branch, Kvichak, Igushik, Wood,Nuyakuk, and Togiak Towers and Nushagak Sonar projects)Historic annual data used Daily counts and cumulative counts usedto estimate run timing and strengthAnnual total data usedEscapement Age Composition(Ugashik, Egegik, Naknek, Branch, Kvichak, Igushik, Wood,Nuyakuk, and Togiak Tower and Nushagak Sonar projects)Historic annual data usedData used for assessment of pre-seasonforecast accuracy and for in-seasonassignment of catch to stock of originData used for brood tablesand for catch allocationsInside Test Fishing and Aerial Surveys(Ugashik, Egegik, Naknek-Kvichak, and Igushik test fishprojects)Not usedUsed to estimate number of fish abovedistrict but below towerNot usedOutside Test Fishing(Port Moller)Not usedUsed to estimate number of fish that havenot yet reached Bristol BayNot usedCatch Data (daily reports and yearend fish tickets)(Ugashik, Egegik, Naknek-Kvichak, Nushagak, and Togiakfishing districts)Historic annual data usedUsed to estimate run timing and strengthby districtAnnual total data usedCatch Age Composition(Ugashik, Egegik, Naknek-Kvichak, Nushagak, and Togiakfishing districts)Historic annual data usedData used for assessment of pre-seasonforecast accuracy and for in-seasonassignment of catch to stock of originData used for brood tablesand for catch allocationsSmolt Enumeration(Kvichak, Naknek, Egegik, Ugashik, Wood, and Nuyakuk)Historic annual data used attimesNot usedNot used, but have potentialfor escapement goalsL-7
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Fraser River Sockeye Fisheriesand F
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. Catch Monitorin
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implement harvest rate ceilings to
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Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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List of TablesTable 1 Annual estima
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List of FiguresFigure 1 Fraser sock
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Figure 21 Estimates of total catch,
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List of AppendicesAppendix A Statem
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used to (1) estimate catch for each
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FISHERIES HARVESTINGOverview of Fis
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Figure 1 Fraser sockeye marine migr
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Table 2 Summary of available inform
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Table 3 provides the annual estimat
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Table 4 Summary of available inform
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season update teleconference meetin
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Catch Estimation MethodsThe procedu
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catch estimates was detected using
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of precision. The overall rating fo
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1998-00 - No agreements with Sto:lo
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initiation of the AFS Agreements in
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Table 12 Comparison of annual socke
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Table 13 Annual estimates of the ha
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Canadian Commercial FisheriesThe pr
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logbook systems. In addition to the
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Table 15 Fraser River sockeye salmo
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Available catch estimates for the r
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Table 17 Summary of available infor
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anged from less than 100 to over 30
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Washington State Recreational Fishe
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equirements have been applied to se
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salmon were biopsied or tagged with
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Stellako-Late Stuart and 531 Adams)
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FISHERIES MANAGEMENTOverview of Pre
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parents of the recruits). Effective
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within the confidence limits. For e
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Table 20 Pre-season forecast models
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different from the straight line),
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Prediction ability of ForecastsProp
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Stock MAPEReturn Explainedby Foreca
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test fisheries are analyzed in-seas
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Inputs to the cumulative-normal mod
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eginning of the runs, but by mid-ru
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Median Absolute Percent Error (1997
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variety of hydroacoustic techniques
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enefited from improved technologies
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Post-season estimates of Escapement
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precision achieved was considerably
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m 3 /sec during the sockeye run. Fi
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Escapement TargetsOur evaluations r
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20% of the average of the 4-year se
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Table 24 Low escapement benchmarks
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Table 25 Comparison of post-season
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fisheries have been permitted to ta
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sub-dominant cycle years (e.g., 200
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SummaryLow Escapement Benchmarks (L
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Extent of OverharvestingThe estimat
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2,000,0001,800,000Early StuartCatch
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Cultus Lake Sockeye Recovery Effort
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Figure 23 Number of adult sockeye e
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Recovery ObjectivesIn anticipation
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2008 the escapement estimate was 34
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BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA SOCKEYE FISHERY
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accurate, precise, and timely, (2)
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The Bay is subjected to large tidal
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activity (Bocking and Peterman 1988
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% of total run45%40%35%30%25%20%15%
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Harvest estimation methodsTotal har
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Millions of sockeyeYearFigure 27 Hi
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management structure complements th
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1.5Togiak4.03.5NushagakMillions of
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Millions of sockeye7.06.05.04.03.02
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logical given the dynamics of the r
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1.61.4Number of fish (millions)1.21
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Pre-season forecastsAs noted above,
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8.0y = 0.79x + 1.59R² = 0.417.8Log
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12010080MAPE60402001971-1980 1981-1
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Median percent error (MPE)3020100-1
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Table 28 Average age composition of
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dampeners to reduce surface turbule
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current year’s run is accounted f
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and 1999 Revised Annexes. This inte
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Bristol Bay was in 1997 when there
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upon by managers to determine when
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STATE OF THE SCIENCECatch Monitorin
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2006) due to concerns regarding the
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RECOMMENDATIONS1. DFO needs to ensu
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LITERATURE CITEDAdkison, M.D. and R
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Beacham, T.D., M. Lapointe, J.R. Ca
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CSAS. 2007 Pre-season run size fore
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Evans, D.G., J.B. Browning and B.G.
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Hardie, D.C., D.A. Nagtegaal, K. He
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Pacific Salmon Commission. 1998. Re
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Robichaud, D., J.J. Smith, K. K. En
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Valderrama, D. and J.L. Anderson. 2
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Appendix A Statement of Work.Cohen
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All sectors3.7 The Contractor will
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“State of the Science”. Comment
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3.3 The Contractor will review and
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Appendix BList of requests to DFO b
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DFO Request 15: Recent CSAS documen
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Item Description DateRequestedReque
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Appendix CFirst Nation catch monito
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Table C-1 Summary of information re
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Table C-2 Weekly catch monitoring e
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Table D-1 Summary of information re
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community of Port Renfrew. The area
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IPrecision ( + % of the estimate)10
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Table E-2 Annual Strait of Georgia
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Table E-4 Annual Johnstone Strait e
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Table E-6 Lower Fraser River recrea
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0 would mean that the forecast does
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the general ups and downs of the ob
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Appendix G Graphical representation
Page 232 and 233: Early Stuart Timing GroupEarly Stua
Page 234 and 235: Summer-run Timing GroupSummer run7.
Page 236 and 237: Fraser River Indicator Stocks (list
Page 254 and 255: Appendix H Pre-season forecast: sum
Page 256 and 257: ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
Page 258 and 259: ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
Page 260 and 261: Appendix I Methods of In-season Sto
Page 262 and 263: Marine Gillnet Test FisheriesThe gi
Page 264 and 265: Expansion line (x1000)9080706050403
Page 266 and 267: Table I-2 Mean values for purse sei
Page 268 and 269: Figure I-5 Map of test fishing loca
Page 270 and 271: Appendix J The Hydroacoustics progr
Page 272 and 273: An SEF project was secured in 2007
Page 274 and 275: Conservation action Comments Partne
Page 276 and 277: Table K-2 Summary of actions to rec
Page 278 and 279: Table L-1 Catch and escapement of s
Page 280 and 281: Table L-3 Performance criteria of p
Page 284 and 285: Appendix M Reviewer comments on the
Page 286 and 287: Request #5: Sockeye allocations by
Page 288 and 289: utility of pre-season forecasts. Pr
Page 290 and 291: 3. Are there additional quantitativ
Page 292 and 293: made via tagging and experimentatio
Page 294 and 295: Page 60: The authors make extensive
Page 296 and 297: ensure the reader does not assume t
Page 298 and 299: The reported excerpts from Bradford
Page 300 and 301: (budgets, legal issues, pseudo-cons
Page 302 and 303: REVIEW 3/3Reviewer Name: Dr Sean Co
Page 304 and 305: season forecasts that eventually co
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Page 308 and 309: size.Figures showing errors for pre
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Page 312 and 313: Total rows from all these tables be
Page 314 and 315: Exploitation Rate100%90%80%70%60%50
Page 316 and 317: Exploitation RateEarly Stuart90%80%
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