Fraser River Sockeye Fisheries and Fisheries Management - Cohen ...

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sub-dominant cycle years (e.g., 2003), and less than the LEB for the two off-cycle years(e.g., 2000 and 2001).Escapement6,000,0005,000,0004,000,0003,000,0002,000,000LatesEscapement4yr avgInterim TRPInterim LRP1,000,00001960196419681972197619801984198819921996200020042008Figure 19 Escapement and operational reference points for Late-run sockeye. TheLate-run timing group includes six stocks: Late Shuswap (includes Adams,Lower Shuswap), Birkenhead, Weaver, Cultus, Harrison, and Portage, aswell as variable contributions from miscellaneous populations. LateShuswap follow a pronounced 4-year cyclic pattern.As for the other run-timing groups, commercial fisheries are closed or very limited inyears when run sizes approach the LEB and most of the catch is taken in First NationFSC fisheries. In recent years, fishing opportunities in dominant cycle years (e.g., 1998,2002, 2006) have been greatly reduced from historical levels due to conservationconcerns related to Cultus sockeye. The 4-year running average of the annualescapement estimates have been consistently below the LEB for Cultus sockeye since1990 (Figure 20). Prior to 1996, fisheries harvested a substantial portion of the annualreturn for Cultus sockeye but fisheries restrictions implemented in 1998 have resulted invery limited harvests of Cultus sockeye over the past 10 years. In addition to Cultus, theLate-run timing group includes 5 indicator stocks. The LEBs for these other indicatorstocks were compared with the historical escapement estimates and we confirmed that the4-year moving averages of the annual escapement estimates have consistently exceededthe LEBs for each of these stocks since the early 1970s.109
120,000100,000HarvestEscapeLEB4yr Avg EscAdult Abundance.80,00060,00040,00020,00001970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006Figure 20 Annual escapement and harvest estimates for Cultus Lake sockeye alongwith the 4-year running average of escapement and Low EscapementBenchmark (LEB), 1970-2008.110
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Fraser River Sockeye Fisheriesand F
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. Catch Monitorin
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implement harvest rate ceilings to
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Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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List of TablesTable 1 Annual estima
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List of FiguresFigure 1 Fraser sock
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Figure 21 Estimates of total catch,
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List of AppendicesAppendix A Statem
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used to (1) estimate catch for each
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FISHERIES HARVESTINGOverview of Fis
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Figure 1 Fraser sockeye marine migr
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Table 2 Summary of available inform
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Table 3 provides the annual estimat
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Table 4 Summary of available inform
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season update teleconference meetin
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Catch Estimation MethodsThe procedu
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catch estimates was detected using
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of precision. The overall rating fo
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1998-00 - No agreements with Sto:lo
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initiation of the AFS Agreements in
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Table 12 Comparison of annual socke
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Table 13 Annual estimates of the ha
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Canadian Commercial FisheriesThe pr
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logbook systems. In addition to the
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Table 15 Fraser River sockeye salmo
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Available catch estimates for the r
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Table 17 Summary of available infor
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anged from less than 100 to over 30
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Washington State Recreational Fishe
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equirements have been applied to se
Page 62 and 63: salmon were biopsied or tagged with
Page 64 and 65: Stellako-Late Stuart and 531 Adams)
Page 66 and 67: FISHERIES MANAGEMENTOverview of Pre
Page 68 and 69: parents of the recruits). Effective
Page 70 and 71: within the confidence limits. For e
Page 72 and 73: Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
Page 74 and 75: Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
Page 76 and 77: Table 20 Pre-season forecast models
Page 78 and 79: different from the straight line),
Page 80 and 81: Prediction ability of ForecastsProp
Page 82 and 83: Stock MAPEReturn Explainedby Foreca
Page 84 and 85: test fisheries are analyzed in-seas
Page 86 and 87: Inputs to the cumulative-normal mod
Page 88 and 89: eginning of the runs, but by mid-ru
Page 90 and 91: Median Absolute Percent Error (1997
Page 92 and 93: variety of hydroacoustic techniques
Page 94 and 95: enefited from improved technologies
Page 96 and 97: Post-season estimates of Escapement
Page 98 and 99: precision achieved was considerably
Page 100 and 101: m 3 /sec during the sockeye run. Fi
Page 102 and 103: Escapement TargetsOur evaluations r
Page 104 and 105: 20% of the average of the 4-year se
Page 106 and 107: Table 24 Low escapement benchmarks
Page 108 and 109: Table 25 Comparison of post-season
Page 110 and 111: fisheries have been permitted to ta
Page 114 and 115: SummaryLow Escapement Benchmarks (L
Page 116 and 117: Extent of OverharvestingThe estimat
Page 118 and 119: 2,000,0001,800,000Early StuartCatch
Page 120 and 121: Cultus Lake Sockeye Recovery Effort
Page 122 and 123: Figure 23 Number of adult sockeye e
Page 124 and 125: Recovery ObjectivesIn anticipation
Page 126 and 127: 2008 the escapement estimate was 34
Page 128 and 129: BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA SOCKEYE FISHERY
Page 130 and 131: accurate, precise, and timely, (2)
Page 132 and 133: The Bay is subjected to large tidal
Page 134 and 135: activity (Bocking and Peterman 1988
Page 136 and 137: % of total run45%40%35%30%25%20%15%
Page 138 and 139: Harvest estimation methodsTotal har
Page 140 and 141: Millions of sockeyeYearFigure 27 Hi
Page 142 and 143: management structure complements th
Page 144 and 145: 1.5Togiak4.03.5NushagakMillions of
Page 146 and 147: Millions of sockeye7.06.05.04.03.02
Page 148 and 149: logical given the dynamics of the r
Page 150 and 151: 1.61.4Number of fish (millions)1.21
Page 152 and 153: Pre-season forecastsAs noted above,
Page 154 and 155: 8.0y = 0.79x + 1.59R² = 0.417.8Log
Page 156 and 157: 12010080MAPE60402001971-1980 1981-1
Page 158 and 159: Median percent error (MPE)3020100-1
Page 160 and 161: Table 28 Average age composition of
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dampeners to reduce surface turbule
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current year’s run is accounted f
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and 1999 Revised Annexes. This inte
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Bristol Bay was in 1997 when there
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upon by managers to determine when
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STATE OF THE SCIENCECatch Monitorin
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2006) due to concerns regarding the
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RECOMMENDATIONS1. DFO needs to ensu
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LITERATURE CITEDAdkison, M.D. and R
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Beacham, T.D., M. Lapointe, J.R. Ca
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CSAS. 2007 Pre-season run size fore
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Evans, D.G., J.B. Browning and B.G.
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Hardie, D.C., D.A. Nagtegaal, K. He
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Pacific Salmon Commission. 1998. Re
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Robichaud, D., J.J. Smith, K. K. En
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Valderrama, D. and J.L. Anderson. 2
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Appendix A Statement of Work.Cohen
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All sectors3.7 The Contractor will
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“State of the Science”. Comment
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3.3 The Contractor will review and
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Appendix BList of requests to DFO b
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DFO Request 15: Recent CSAS documen
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Item Description DateRequestedReque
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Appendix CFirst Nation catch monito
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Table C-1 Summary of information re
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Table C-2 Weekly catch monitoring e
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Table D-1 Summary of information re
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community of Port Renfrew. The area
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IPrecision ( + % of the estimate)10
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Table E-2 Annual Strait of Georgia
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Table E-4 Annual Johnstone Strait e
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Table E-6 Lower Fraser River recrea
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0 would mean that the forecast does
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the general ups and downs of the ob
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Appendix G Graphical representation
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Early Stuart Timing GroupEarly Stua
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Summer-run Timing GroupSummer run7.
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Fraser River Indicator Stocks (list
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Appendix H Pre-season forecast: sum
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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Appendix I Methods of In-season Sto
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Marine Gillnet Test FisheriesThe gi
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Expansion line (x1000)9080706050403
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Table I-2 Mean values for purse sei
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Figure I-5 Map of test fishing loca
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Appendix J The Hydroacoustics progr
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An SEF project was secured in 2007
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Conservation action Comments Partne
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Table K-2 Summary of actions to rec
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Table L-1 Catch and escapement of s
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Table L-3 Performance criteria of p
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Ratio of annual return to the avera
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Appendix M Reviewer comments on the
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Request #5: Sockeye allocations by
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utility of pre-season forecasts. Pr
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3. Are there additional quantitativ
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made via tagging and experimentatio
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Page 60: The authors make extensive
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ensure the reader does not assume t
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The reported excerpts from Bradford
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(budgets, legal issues, pseudo-cons
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REVIEW 3/3Reviewer Name: Dr Sean Co
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season forecasts that eventually co
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allocation shows "No agreement", an
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size.Figures showing errors for pre
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Goals can easily generate confusion
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Total rows from all these tables be
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Exploitation Rate100%90%80%70%60%50
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Exploitation RateEarly Stuart90%80%
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