Fraser River Sockeye Fisheries and Fisheries Management - Cohen ...

The Role of Pre-season ForecastsPre-season forecasts of the stock-specific returns to Bristol Bay are issued in Novemberof each year for the following year’s season. These are largely done as a service toindustry (J. Regnart, Regional Supervisor, Division of Commercial Fisheries, ADF&G).The remoteness of Bristol Bay and the compressed run timing of the fishery necessitatethat processors and fishermen show up with sufficient gear and supplies to handle theseason’s catch. Bringing excess capacity to the Bay is very costly, and there is littleopportunity to react to larger-than-expected catches. Pre-season forecasts can alsoinfluence the sales and marketing decisions of processors. Without a doubt, improvingthe accuracy of pre-season forecasts provides much greater economic benefit to theindustry than any improvements in the in-season forecasts.ADF&G uses pre-season forecasts in two ways. First, they use it to help plan for orderlyfisheries and ensure that adequate processing capacity will be available. During thewinter, AMBs survey licensed processors to assess the daily and seasonal capacity toprocess fish during the upcoming season (e.g., ADF&G 2009). Second, AMBs will usethe pre-season forecast to identify conservation concerns associated with managing theirdistricts and characterize, in a qualitative way, the degree of caution they will approachthe early-season fishing in each district. In April of each year, AMBs release an“outlook” document (Note: the 2010 Outlook is available at:http://www.cf.adfg.state.ak.us/region2//finfish/salmon/bbay/brbout10.pdf) that providesthe pre-season forecast, a summary of any regulatory changes from previous seasons,stock- and species-specific conservation concerns, and how they may approach earlyfishing in each of the five districts.The Role of In-season ForecastsIn-season forecasts of returns to either the Bay as a whole or to specific fishing districtsare not reported by ADF&G and done on an ad hoc basis by research staff and AMBs.Specific methods used for forecasting are outlined later. In-season forecasts ofabundance are used secondarily for managing for escapement on a day-to-day and tideto-tidebasis. By “secondarily”, we mean that AMBs focus their efforts on meetingescapement goals and spreading escapement throughout the course of the season byregulating day-to-day fishing time and area openings. AMBs do not attempt to predicthow many fish in total may return and then use those forecasts to guide harvestobjectives. This focus on managing escapement and not catch is understandable and144