Fraser River Sockeye Fisheries and Fisheries Management - Cohen ...

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Figure 21 Estimates of total catch, escapement and en-route loss for Fraser sockeye byrun-timing group, 1980-2009. En-route losses were not estimated prior to 1992........................................................................................................................... 115Figure 22 Estimates of total annual abundance and exploitation rates for Fraser sockeyeby run-timing group for the period 1980-2009. ............................................... 116Figure 23 Number of adult sockeye entering Cultus Lake for the period 1921 to 2009.Figure from DFO 2010. ................................................................................... 119Figure 24 Map of Bristol Bay Alaska indicating the commercial fishing districts forsockeye salmon. ............................................................................................... 129Figure 25 Cumulative percent of the Bristol Bay runs that occur by each day of theseason. Curves represent the average run timings from 1991 - 2010. ............ 130Figure 26 Interception harvest of sockeye salmon bound for Bristol Bay, Alaska from thehigh seas fishery (no longer in existence) south of the Alaska Peninsula andfrom the gillnet fisheries in and around the Peninsula..................................... 133Figure 27 Historical depiction of catch and escapement for sockeye salmon summedacross all stocks in Bristol Bay Alaska............................................................ 137Figure 28 Catch and escapement of westside sockeye stocks in Bristol Bay Alaska.Light bars are catch, dark bars escapement, and black horizontal lines representthe upper and lower bounds of the current escapement goal range from Baker etal. (2009).......................................................................................................... 141Figure 29 Catch and escapement of Egegik and Ugashik sockeye stocks in Bristol Bay,Alaska. Light bars are catch, dark bars escapement, and black horizontal linesrepresent the upper and lower bounds of the current escapement goal range fromBaker et al. (2009)............................................................................................ 142Figure 30 Catch and escapement of sockeye stocks in the Kvichak fishing district ofBristol Bay, Alaska. Light bars are catch, dark bars escapement, and blackhorizontal lines represent the upper and lower bounds of the current escapementgoal range from Baker et al. (2009). There is no upper bound for the Alagnakstock. ................................................................................................................ 143Figure 31 Cumulative escapement of sockeye throughout the 2010 fishing season inEgegik River, Alaska. The thin black dashed lines represent the upper andlower ends of the Escapement Goal multiplied by the historical run timing (thegray dashed line is the midpoint of the goal). The solid black line is theobserved cumulative escapement. The dashed lines are sometimes slid back andforth along the x-axis if the manager feels the run is early or late................... 147Figure 32 Observed escapement of sockeye past the counting towers on the Wood andEgegik Rivers, Alaska during 2003. Valleys in the graph indicate times whenthe commercial fishery was open 1-3 days earlier........................................... 148Figure 33 Pre-season forecast performance for all sockeye stocks in Bristol Bay, Alaskaincluding years 1990-2010. For each year, stocks were pooled beforecomparing forecasted total return to observed total return. The black 45° line inthe top graph represents the equilibrium line when log 10 (observed return)=log 10 (forecasted return); the dotted line is the best-fit linear regression linecorresponding to the equation and R 2 value. The bottom graph depicts theforecasted return and observed return, as well as, their difference since 1990.MPE=median percent error across years since 1990; MAPE=median absolute11
percent error (see Appendix F for a detailed explanation of statistical metrics)........................................................................................................................... 151Figure 34 Pre-season forecast performance for all sockeye salmon stocks in Bristol Bayfor the period 1990-2010. Top: Absolute percent error; median absolute percenterror (MAPE) shown as horizontal bar; boxes represent upper and lowerconfidence limits for the 75 th and 25 th percentiles, respectively; whiskers extendto upper 95 th and lower 5 th percentiles. Bottom: R 2 =the coefficient ofdetermination; asterisks indicate log 10 (observed run) versus log 10 (forecasted)run relationships with slopes significantly differed from zero (α= 0.05). SeeAppendix F for detailed explanation of metrics. ............................................. 152Figure 35 Pre-season forecast performance for all sockeye stocks in Bristol Bay Alaskacompared across the four most recent decades. MAPE=median absolute percenterror (see Appendix F for detailed explanation) and is represented by the blackhorizontal lines; gray vertical lines indicate the range in MAPE observed forthat decade. ...................................................................................................... 153Figure 36 Average in-season forecasting performance of the sockeye total run in BristolBay, Alaska (2001-2010). The black line represents the cumulativecatch+escapement model (all districts pooled) and the gray line the Port Mollermodel. MPE and MAPE represents the median percent error and medianabsolute error across years. The R 2 value was based on the best-fit linearregression line of log 10 (observed run) versus log 10 (forecasted run). ............... 155Figure 37 Projected percent of the sockeye escapement that would not have been countedif the 3-day-under-1% rule for ending enumeration projects had been used forthe Nushagak River, Alaska............................................................................. 16012
Page 2 and 3: Fraser River Sockeye Fisheriesand F
Page 4 and 5: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. Catch Monitorin
Page 6 and 7: implement harvest rate ceilings to
Page 8 and 9: Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Page 10 and 11: List of TablesTable 1 Annual estima
Page 12 and 13: List of FiguresFigure 1 Fraser sock
Page 16 and 17: List of AppendicesAppendix A Statem
Page 18 and 19: used to (1) estimate catch for each
Page 20 and 21: FISHERIES HARVESTINGOverview of Fis
Page 22 and 23: Figure 1 Fraser sockeye marine migr
Page 24 and 25: Table 2 Summary of available inform
Page 26 and 27: Table 3 provides the annual estimat
Page 28 and 29: Table 4 Summary of available inform
Page 30 and 31: season update teleconference meetin
Page 32 and 33: Catch Estimation MethodsThe procedu
Page 34 and 35: catch estimates was detected using
Page 36 and 37: of precision. The overall rating fo
Page 38 and 39: 1998-00 - No agreements with Sto:lo
Page 40 and 41: initiation of the AFS Agreements in
Page 42 and 43: Table 12 Comparison of annual socke
Page 44 and 45: Table 13 Annual estimates of the ha
Page 46 and 47: Canadian Commercial FisheriesThe pr
Page 48 and 49: logbook systems. In addition to the
Page 50 and 51: Table 15 Fraser River sockeye salmo
Page 52 and 53: Available catch estimates for the r
Page 54 and 55: Table 17 Summary of available infor
Page 56 and 57: anged from less than 100 to over 30
Page 58 and 59: Washington State Recreational Fishe
Page 60 and 61: equirements have been applied to se
Page 62 and 63: salmon were biopsied or tagged with
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Stellako-Late Stuart and 531 Adams)
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FISHERIES MANAGEMENTOverview of Pre
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parents of the recruits). Effective
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within the confidence limits. For e
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Table 20 Pre-season forecast models
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different from the straight line),
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Prediction ability of ForecastsProp
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Stock MAPEReturn Explainedby Foreca
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test fisheries are analyzed in-seas
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Inputs to the cumulative-normal mod
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eginning of the runs, but by mid-ru
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Median Absolute Percent Error (1997
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variety of hydroacoustic techniques
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enefited from improved technologies
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Post-season estimates of Escapement
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precision achieved was considerably
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m 3 /sec during the sockeye run. Fi
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Escapement TargetsOur evaluations r
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20% of the average of the 4-year se
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Table 24 Low escapement benchmarks
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Table 25 Comparison of post-season
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fisheries have been permitted to ta
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sub-dominant cycle years (e.g., 200
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SummaryLow Escapement Benchmarks (L
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Extent of OverharvestingThe estimat
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2,000,0001,800,000Early StuartCatch
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Cultus Lake Sockeye Recovery Effort
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Figure 23 Number of adult sockeye e
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Recovery ObjectivesIn anticipation
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2008 the escapement estimate was 34
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BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA SOCKEYE FISHERY
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accurate, precise, and timely, (2)
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The Bay is subjected to large tidal
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activity (Bocking and Peterman 1988
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% of total run45%40%35%30%25%20%15%
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Harvest estimation methodsTotal har
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Millions of sockeyeYearFigure 27 Hi
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management structure complements th
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1.5Togiak4.03.5NushagakMillions of
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Millions of sockeye7.06.05.04.03.02
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logical given the dynamics of the r
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1.61.4Number of fish (millions)1.21
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Pre-season forecastsAs noted above,
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8.0y = 0.79x + 1.59R² = 0.417.8Log
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12010080MAPE60402001971-1980 1981-1
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Median percent error (MPE)3020100-1
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Table 28 Average age composition of
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dampeners to reduce surface turbule
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current year’s run is accounted f
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and 1999 Revised Annexes. This inte
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Bristol Bay was in 1997 when there
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upon by managers to determine when
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STATE OF THE SCIENCECatch Monitorin
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2006) due to concerns regarding the
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RECOMMENDATIONS1. DFO needs to ensu
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LITERATURE CITEDAdkison, M.D. and R
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Beacham, T.D., M. Lapointe, J.R. Ca
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CSAS. 2007 Pre-season run size fore
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Evans, D.G., J.B. Browning and B.G.
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Hardie, D.C., D.A. Nagtegaal, K. He
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Pacific Salmon Commission. 1998. Re
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Robichaud, D., J.J. Smith, K. K. En
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Valderrama, D. and J.L. Anderson. 2
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Appendix A Statement of Work.Cohen
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All sectors3.7 The Contractor will
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“State of the Science”. Comment
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3.3 The Contractor will review and
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Appendix BList of requests to DFO b
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DFO Request 15: Recent CSAS documen
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Item Description DateRequestedReque
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Appendix CFirst Nation catch monito
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Table C-1 Summary of information re
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Table C-2 Weekly catch monitoring e
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Table D-1 Summary of information re
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community of Port Renfrew. The area
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IPrecision ( + % of the estimate)10
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Table E-2 Annual Strait of Georgia
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Table E-4 Annual Johnstone Strait e
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Table E-6 Lower Fraser River recrea
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0 would mean that the forecast does
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the general ups and downs of the ob
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Appendix G Graphical representation
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Early Stuart Timing GroupEarly Stua
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Summer-run Timing GroupSummer run7.
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Fraser River Indicator Stocks (list
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Appendix H Pre-season forecast: sum
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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Appendix I Methods of In-season Sto
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Marine Gillnet Test FisheriesThe gi
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Expansion line (x1000)9080706050403
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Table I-2 Mean values for purse sei
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Figure I-5 Map of test fishing loca
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Appendix J The Hydroacoustics progr
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An SEF project was secured in 2007
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Conservation action Comments Partne
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Table K-2 Summary of actions to rec
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Table L-1 Catch and escapement of s
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Table L-3 Performance criteria of p
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Ratio of annual return to the avera
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Appendix M Reviewer comments on the
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Request #5: Sockeye allocations by
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utility of pre-season forecasts. Pr
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3. Are there additional quantitativ
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made via tagging and experimentatio
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Page 60: The authors make extensive
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ensure the reader does not assume t
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The reported excerpts from Bradford
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(budgets, legal issues, pseudo-cons
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REVIEW 3/3Reviewer Name: Dr Sean Co
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season forecasts that eventually co
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allocation shows "No agreement", an
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size.Figures showing errors for pre
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Goals can easily generate confusion
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Total rows from all these tables be
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Exploitation Rate100%90%80%70%60%50
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Exploitation RateEarly Stuart90%80%
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