Fraser River Sockeye Fisheries and Fisheries Management - Cohen ...

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Table L-3 Performance criteria of pre-season forecasts by river system and year for sockeye stocks in Bristol Bay, Alaskafrom 1990 to 2010. Table values represent forecasted run minus observed run (return) expressed as a percent ofobserved run; thus, positive values reflect years and stocks when the run came in under forecast. MPE and MAPErepresent the median percent error and median absolute error across years. The R 2 , intercept, and slope valueswere based on the best-fit linear regression line of observed run versus forecasted run (data were log 10transformed). P-values for regression parameters are given in parentheses.Year Alagnak Egegik Igushik Kvichak Naknek Nushagak Togiak Ugashik Wood All Systems1990 109 -13 -7 86 119 31 -27 27 96 731991 8 45 94 -3 54 17 -42 49 291 271992 52 17 25 -20 3 -17 6 -11 8 111993 35 5 2 -27 27 68 41 40 46 141994 -39 -11 -16 17 -29 21 -27 16 -18 -121995 10 0 36 3 -37 25 -48 28 58 31996 -35 -24 -18 -63 39 2 31 51 10 -221997 -38 -50 -55 -77 -62 -61 -36 -1 -74 -481998 -51 -53 -43 -65 -31 3 -5 21 -49 -431999 140 160 74 6 30 166 9 71 107 522000 -6 -53 45 -71 -14 65 90 54 7 -212001 -51 -41 134 -51 136 -20 31 -25 3 -112002 22 5 24 -63 26 53 -8 -4 -66 12003 -54 -21 112 -36 30 360 51 28 21 62004 2 -2 -41 -42 -18 46 17 29 -54 -82005 -8 -17 43 19 107 7 119 -13 191 182006 -6 1 50 196 -26 -4 60 136 69 292007 -15 81 83 9 54 110 45 11 47 292008 7 -55 15 58 -21 78 -13 -26 140 02009 31 62 12 5 -6 23 8 42 -59 172010 -46 6 -17 140 -23 43 -8 23 -36 0MPE -6 -2 24 -3 3 25 8 27 10 3MAPE 35 21 41 42 30 31 31 27 54 17R2 0.32 0.19 0.14 0.69 0.13 0.82 0.53 0.34 0.00 0.44Intercept 3476837 (0.155) 1765152 (0.101) 379916 (0.051) -144981 (0.925) 2750987 (0.084) 201090 (0.467) -205492 (0.586) 1473992 (0.214) 1259667 (0.01) 10047491 (0.18)Slope 0.62 (0.008) 0.51 (0.046) 0.53 (0.101) 1 (0) 0.52 (0.104) 1 (0) 1 (0) 0.86 (0.005) 0.09 (0.807) 0.75 (0.001)L-4
Table L-4 Summary of current escapement goals and recommended escapement goals for sockeye stocks in Bristol Bay, 2009.Reproduced from Baker et al. (2009).Current Escapement GoalRecommended Escapement GoalEscapementSystem GoalType Year AdoptedData Action Goal TypeSockeye SalmonUgashik500,000-1,200,000 SEG 1995; Changed to SEG in 2006 Tower No ChangeEgegikNaknekKvichak (off-cycle)Kvichak (pre, peak)AlagnakWoodNushagakIgushikTogiakKulukuk Bay800,000-1,400,000800,000-1,400,0002,000,000-10,000,0006,000,000-10,000,000320,000 minumim700,000-1,500,000340,000-760,000150,000-300,000120,000-270,0008,000 minimumSEG 1995; Changed to SEG in 2006 Tower No ChangeSEG 1984; Changed to SEG in 2006 Tower No ChangeSEG 1997; Changed to SEG in 2006 TowerChange to singlegoal 2,000,000-10,000,000 SEGSEG 1997; Changed to SEG in 2006 TowerChange to singlegoal 2,000,000-10,000,000 SEGSEG 2006Tower No ChangeSEG 2000; Changed to SEG in 2006 Tower No ChangeSEG 1997; Changed to SEG in 2006 Sonar No ChangeSEG 2000; Changed to SEG in 2006 Tower No ChangeBEG 1997Tower Change to SEG 120,000-270,000 SEGSEG 2006Aerial No ChangeL-5
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Fraser River Sockeye Fisheriesand F
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. Catch Monitorin
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implement harvest rate ceilings to
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Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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List of TablesTable 1 Annual estima
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List of FiguresFigure 1 Fraser sock
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Figure 21 Estimates of total catch,
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List of AppendicesAppendix A Statem
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used to (1) estimate catch for each
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FISHERIES HARVESTINGOverview of Fis
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Figure 1 Fraser sockeye marine migr
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Table 2 Summary of available inform
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Table 3 provides the annual estimat
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Table 4 Summary of available inform
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season update teleconference meetin
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Catch Estimation MethodsThe procedu
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catch estimates was detected using
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of precision. The overall rating fo
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1998-00 - No agreements with Sto:lo
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initiation of the AFS Agreements in
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Table 12 Comparison of annual socke
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Table 13 Annual estimates of the ha
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Canadian Commercial FisheriesThe pr
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logbook systems. In addition to the
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Table 15 Fraser River sockeye salmo
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Available catch estimates for the r
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Table 17 Summary of available infor
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anged from less than 100 to over 30
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Washington State Recreational Fishe
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equirements have been applied to se
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salmon were biopsied or tagged with
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Stellako-Late Stuart and 531 Adams)
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FISHERIES MANAGEMENTOverview of Pre
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parents of the recruits). Effective
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within the confidence limits. For e
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Table 20 Pre-season forecast models
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different from the straight line),
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Prediction ability of ForecastsProp
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Stock MAPEReturn Explainedby Foreca
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test fisheries are analyzed in-seas
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Inputs to the cumulative-normal mod
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eginning of the runs, but by mid-ru
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Median Absolute Percent Error (1997
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variety of hydroacoustic techniques
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enefited from improved technologies
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Post-season estimates of Escapement
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precision achieved was considerably
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m 3 /sec during the sockeye run. Fi
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Escapement TargetsOur evaluations r
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20% of the average of the 4-year se
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Table 24 Low escapement benchmarks
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Table 25 Comparison of post-season
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fisheries have been permitted to ta
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sub-dominant cycle years (e.g., 200
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SummaryLow Escapement Benchmarks (L
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Extent of OverharvestingThe estimat
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2,000,0001,800,000Early StuartCatch
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Cultus Lake Sockeye Recovery Effort
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Figure 23 Number of adult sockeye e
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Recovery ObjectivesIn anticipation
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2008 the escapement estimate was 34
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BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA SOCKEYE FISHERY
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accurate, precise, and timely, (2)
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The Bay is subjected to large tidal
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activity (Bocking and Peterman 1988
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% of total run45%40%35%30%25%20%15%
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Harvest estimation methodsTotal har
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Millions of sockeyeYearFigure 27 Hi
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management structure complements th
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1.5Togiak4.03.5NushagakMillions of
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Millions of sockeye7.06.05.04.03.02
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logical given the dynamics of the r
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1.61.4Number of fish (millions)1.21
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Pre-season forecastsAs noted above,
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8.0y = 0.79x + 1.59R² = 0.417.8Log
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12010080MAPE60402001971-1980 1981-1
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Median percent error (MPE)3020100-1
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Table 28 Average age composition of
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dampeners to reduce surface turbule
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current year’s run is accounted f
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and 1999 Revised Annexes. This inte
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Bristol Bay was in 1997 when there
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upon by managers to determine when
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STATE OF THE SCIENCECatch Monitorin
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2006) due to concerns regarding the
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RECOMMENDATIONS1. DFO needs to ensu
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LITERATURE CITEDAdkison, M.D. and R
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Beacham, T.D., M. Lapointe, J.R. Ca
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CSAS. 2007 Pre-season run size fore
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Evans, D.G., J.B. Browning and B.G.
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Hardie, D.C., D.A. Nagtegaal, K. He
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Pacific Salmon Commission. 1998. Re
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Robichaud, D., J.J. Smith, K. K. En
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Valderrama, D. and J.L. Anderson. 2
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Appendix A Statement of Work.Cohen
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All sectors3.7 The Contractor will
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“State of the Science”. Comment
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3.3 The Contractor will review and
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Appendix BList of requests to DFO b
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DFO Request 15: Recent CSAS documen
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Item Description DateRequestedReque
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Appendix CFirst Nation catch monito
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Table C-1 Summary of information re
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Table C-2 Weekly catch monitoring e
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Table D-1 Summary of information re
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community of Port Renfrew. The area
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IPrecision ( + % of the estimate)10
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Table E-2 Annual Strait of Georgia
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Table E-4 Annual Johnstone Strait e
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Table E-6 Lower Fraser River recrea
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0 would mean that the forecast does
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the general ups and downs of the ob
Page 230 and 231: Appendix G Graphical representation
Page 232 and 233: Early Stuart Timing GroupEarly Stua
Page 234 and 235: Summer-run Timing GroupSummer run7.
Page 236 and 237: Fraser River Indicator Stocks (list
Page 254 and 255: Appendix H Pre-season forecast: sum
Page 256 and 257: ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
Page 258 and 259: ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
Page 260 and 261: Appendix I Methods of In-season Sto
Page 262 and 263: Marine Gillnet Test FisheriesThe gi
Page 264 and 265: Expansion line (x1000)9080706050403
Page 266 and 267: Table I-2 Mean values for purse sei
Page 268 and 269: Figure I-5 Map of test fishing loca
Page 270 and 271: Appendix J The Hydroacoustics progr
Page 272 and 273: An SEF project was secured in 2007
Page 274 and 275: Conservation action Comments Partne
Page 276 and 277: Table K-2 Summary of actions to rec
Page 278 and 279: Table L-1 Catch and escapement of s
Page 282 and 283: Ratio of annual return to the avera
Page 284 and 285: Appendix M Reviewer comments on the
Page 286 and 287: Request #5: Sockeye allocations by
Page 288 and 289: utility of pre-season forecasts. Pr
Page 290 and 291: 3. Are there additional quantitativ
Page 292 and 293: made via tagging and experimentatio
Page 294 and 295: Page 60: The authors make extensive
Page 296 and 297: ensure the reader does not assume t
Page 298 and 299: The reported excerpts from Bradford
Page 300 and 301: (budgets, legal issues, pseudo-cons
Page 302 and 303: REVIEW 3/3Reviewer Name: Dr Sean Co
Page 304 and 305: season forecasts that eventually co
Page 306 and 307: allocation shows "No agreement", an
Page 308 and 309: size.Figures showing errors for pre
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Page 312 and 313: Total rows from all these tables be
Page 314 and 315: Exploitation Rate100%90%80%70%60%50
Page 316 and 317: Exploitation RateEarly Stuart90%80%
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