Fraser River Sockeye Fisheries and Fisheries Management - Cohen ...

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Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ 1Table of Contents................................................................................................................ 5List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 7List of Figures..................................................................................................................... 9List of Appendices ............................................................................................................ 13INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 14Background .................................................................................................................... 14Objectives ...................................................................................................................... 14How we define accuracy, precision and reliability........................................................ 15FISHERIES HARVESTING ............................................................................................ 17Overview of Fisheries.................................................................................................... 17Overview of First Nation Fisheries................................................................................ 21First Nation FSC Fisheries....................................................................................... 25First Nations Economic Opportunity Fisheries........................................................ 33First Nation Harvests and Allocations for Fraser Sockeye...................................... 36Overview of Commercial Fisheries ............................................................................... 39Canadian Commercial Fisheries .............................................................................. 43Canadian Allocations by Sector............................................................................... 46U.S. Commercial Fisheries ...................................................................................... 47Overview of Recreational Fisheries............................................................................... 48Tidal Recreational Fisheries .................................................................................... 51Non-Tidal Recreational Fisheries ............................................................................ 55Non-Retention Fisheries ................................................................................................ 56FISHERIES MANAGEMENT......................................................................................... 63Overview of Pre-season Forecasting ............................................................................. 63Review of Pre-season Forecasting Methods............................................................ 64Results of Pre-season Forecasts versus Estimated Returns Assessment ................. 74Overview of In-season Run-size Abundance Estimation .............................................. 80In-season Monitoring Methods................................................................................ 81In-season vs Post-season Abundance Estimates, and Estimate Timeliness............. 84Overview of Escapement Enumeration ......................................................................... 88In-season Escapement Monitoring........................................................................... 90Accuracy, Precision and Reliability......................................................................... 92Post-season estimates of Escapement ...................................................................... 93Alternative escapement estimation Methods ........................................................... 96Escapement Targets ....................................................................................................... 99Current Escapement Goals..................................................................................... 100Escapements versus Minimum Escapement Goals................................................ 106Summary................................................................................................................ 111Total Abundance Estimates and Extent of Overharvesting ......................................... 111Total Abundance Estimates ................................................................................... 112Extent of Overharvesting ....................................................................................... 113Cultus Lake Sockeye Recovery Efforts ....................................................................... 1175
Cultus Lake Sockeye Conservation Status ............................................................ 118Recovery Objectives .............................................................................................. 121BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA SOCKEYE FISHERY ....................................................... 125Overview of Bristol Bay Sockeye Fisheries ................................................................ 125Introduction.................................................................................................................. 127The Bristol Bay Fishery............................................................................................... 127Harvesting.................................................................................................................... 130Permitting............................................................................................................... 130Subsistence and Recreational Fisheries ................................................................. 131Commercial Fisheries ............................................................................................ 132Management................................................................................................................. 138Management Authority and Escapement Goal Management ................................ 138The Role of Pre-season Forecasts.......................................................................... 144The Role of In-season Forecasts............................................................................ 144Information Sources Used to Manage the Bristol Bay Fishery ............................. 146Post-season Evaluations......................................................................................... 161COMPARISON OF FRASER & BRISTOL BAY SOCKEYE FISHERIES................. 162Management Structure................................................................................................. 162Fisheries and Stocks..................................................................................................... 163Variability in Returns and Escapement Goals ............................................................. 165Pre-season Forecasts .................................................................................................... 166In-season Forecasts ...................................................................................................... 166In-season and Post-season Escapement Enumeration.................................................. 167Abundance Estimates................................................................................................... 168STATE OF THE SCIENCE............................................................................................ 169Catch Monitoring......................................................................................................... 169Non-Retention Fisheries .............................................................................................. 169Pre-season and In-season Forecasts............................................................................. 170Escapement monitoring ............................................................................................... 170Escapement Goals........................................................................................................ 171Abundance estimates ................................................................................................... 172RECOMMENDATIONS................................................................................................ 173LITERATURE CITED ................................................................................................... 1756
Page 2 and 3: Fraser River Sockeye Fisheriesand F
Page 4 and 5: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. Catch Monitorin
Page 6 and 7: implement harvest rate ceilings to
Page 10 and 11: List of TablesTable 1 Annual estima
Page 12 and 13: List of FiguresFigure 1 Fraser sock
Page 14 and 15: Figure 21 Estimates of total catch,
Page 16 and 17: List of AppendicesAppendix A Statem
Page 18 and 19: used to (1) estimate catch for each
Page 20 and 21: FISHERIES HARVESTINGOverview of Fis
Page 22 and 23: Figure 1 Fraser sockeye marine migr
Page 24 and 25: Table 2 Summary of available inform
Page 26 and 27: Table 3 provides the annual estimat
Page 28 and 29: Table 4 Summary of available inform
Page 30 and 31: season update teleconference meetin
Page 32 and 33: Catch Estimation MethodsThe procedu
Page 34 and 35: catch estimates was detected using
Page 36 and 37: of precision. The overall rating fo
Page 38 and 39: 1998-00 - No agreements with Sto:lo
Page 40 and 41: initiation of the AFS Agreements in
Page 42 and 43: Table 12 Comparison of annual socke
Page 44 and 45: Table 13 Annual estimates of the ha
Page 46 and 47: Canadian Commercial FisheriesThe pr
Page 48 and 49: logbook systems. In addition to the
Page 50 and 51: Table 15 Fraser River sockeye salmo
Page 52 and 53: Available catch estimates for the r
Page 54 and 55: Table 17 Summary of available infor
Page 56 and 57: anged from less than 100 to over 30
Page 58 and 59:
Washington State Recreational Fishe
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equirements have been applied to se
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salmon were biopsied or tagged with
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Stellako-Late Stuart and 531 Adams)
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FISHERIES MANAGEMENTOverview of Pre
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parents of the recruits). Effective
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within the confidence limits. For e
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Table 20 Pre-season forecast models
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different from the straight line),
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Prediction ability of ForecastsProp
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Stock MAPEReturn Explainedby Foreca
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test fisheries are analyzed in-seas
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Inputs to the cumulative-normal mod
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eginning of the runs, but by mid-ru
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Median Absolute Percent Error (1997
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variety of hydroacoustic techniques
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enefited from improved technologies
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Post-season estimates of Escapement
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precision achieved was considerably
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m 3 /sec during the sockeye run. Fi
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Escapement TargetsOur evaluations r
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20% of the average of the 4-year se
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Table 24 Low escapement benchmarks
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Table 25 Comparison of post-season
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fisheries have been permitted to ta
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sub-dominant cycle years (e.g., 200
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SummaryLow Escapement Benchmarks (L
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Extent of OverharvestingThe estimat
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2,000,0001,800,000Early StuartCatch
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Cultus Lake Sockeye Recovery Effort
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Figure 23 Number of adult sockeye e
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Recovery ObjectivesIn anticipation
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2008 the escapement estimate was 34
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BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA SOCKEYE FISHERY
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accurate, precise, and timely, (2)
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The Bay is subjected to large tidal
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activity (Bocking and Peterman 1988
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% of total run45%40%35%30%25%20%15%
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Harvest estimation methodsTotal har
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Millions of sockeyeYearFigure 27 Hi
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management structure complements th
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1.5Togiak4.03.5NushagakMillions of
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Millions of sockeye7.06.05.04.03.02
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logical given the dynamics of the r
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1.61.4Number of fish (millions)1.21
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Pre-season forecastsAs noted above,
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8.0y = 0.79x + 1.59R² = 0.417.8Log
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12010080MAPE60402001971-1980 1981-1
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Median percent error (MPE)3020100-1
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Table 28 Average age composition of
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dampeners to reduce surface turbule
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current year’s run is accounted f
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and 1999 Revised Annexes. This inte
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Bristol Bay was in 1997 when there
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upon by managers to determine when
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STATE OF THE SCIENCECatch Monitorin
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2006) due to concerns regarding the
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RECOMMENDATIONS1. DFO needs to ensu
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LITERATURE CITEDAdkison, M.D. and R
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Beacham, T.D., M. Lapointe, J.R. Ca
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CSAS. 2007 Pre-season run size fore
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Evans, D.G., J.B. Browning and B.G.
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Hardie, D.C., D.A. Nagtegaal, K. He
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Pacific Salmon Commission. 1998. Re
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Robichaud, D., J.J. Smith, K. K. En
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Valderrama, D. and J.L. Anderson. 2
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Appendix A Statement of Work.Cohen
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All sectors3.7 The Contractor will
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“State of the Science”. Comment
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3.3 The Contractor will review and
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Appendix BList of requests to DFO b
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DFO Request 15: Recent CSAS documen
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Item Description DateRequestedReque
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Appendix CFirst Nation catch monito
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Table C-1 Summary of information re
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Table C-2 Weekly catch monitoring e
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Table D-1 Summary of information re
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community of Port Renfrew. The area
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IPrecision ( + % of the estimate)10
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Table E-2 Annual Strait of Georgia
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Table E-4 Annual Johnstone Strait e
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Table E-6 Lower Fraser River recrea
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0 would mean that the forecast does
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the general ups and downs of the ob
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Appendix G Graphical representation
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Early Stuart Timing GroupEarly Stua
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Summer-run Timing GroupSummer run7.
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Fraser River Indicator Stocks (list
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Page 242 and 243:
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Appendix H Pre-season forecast: sum
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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Appendix I Methods of In-season Sto
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Marine Gillnet Test FisheriesThe gi
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Expansion line (x1000)9080706050403
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Table I-2 Mean values for purse sei
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Figure I-5 Map of test fishing loca
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Appendix J The Hydroacoustics progr
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An SEF project was secured in 2007
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Conservation action Comments Partne
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Table K-2 Summary of actions to rec
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Table L-1 Catch and escapement of s
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Table L-3 Performance criteria of p
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Ratio of annual return to the avera
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Appendix M Reviewer comments on the
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Request #5: Sockeye allocations by
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utility of pre-season forecasts. Pr
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3. Are there additional quantitativ
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made via tagging and experimentatio
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Page 60: The authors make extensive
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ensure the reader does not assume t
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The reported excerpts from Bradford
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(budgets, legal issues, pseudo-cons
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REVIEW 3/3Reviewer Name: Dr Sean Co
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season forecasts that eventually co
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allocation shows "No agreement", an
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size.Figures showing errors for pre
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Goals can easily generate confusion
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Total rows from all these tables be
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Exploitation Rate100%90%80%70%60%50
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Exploitation RateEarly Stuart90%80%
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