Table L-1 Catch <strong>and</strong> escapement of sockeye for streams in Bristol Bay Alaska(1970-2010).Year Type Alagnak Egegik Igushik Kvichak Naknek Nushagak Togiak Ugashik Wood Total1970 Catch 229,570 1,403,509 245,607 16,581,224 993,011 152,748 171,541 644,082 20,421,2921970 Escapement 177,060 919,734 370,920 13,935,306 732,502 202,896 735,024 1,161,964 18,235,4061970 Inshore Run 406,630 2,323,243 616,527 30,516,530 1,725,513 355,644 906,565 1,806,046 38,656,6981971 Catch 321,781 1,306,682 227,835 3,764,861 1,770,736 200,507 954,068 755,300 9,301,7701971 Escapement 187,302 634,014 210,960 2,387,392 935,754 200,242 529,752 851,202 5,936,6181971 Inshore Run 509,083 1,940,696 438,795 6,152,253 2,706,490 400,749 1,483,820 1,606,502 15,238,3881972 Catch 31,913 839,820 57,445 342,150 728,302 51,354 17,440 287,257 2,355,6811972 Escapement 151,188 546,402 60,018 1,009,962 586,518 78,570 79,428 430,602 2,942,6881972 Inshore Run 183,101 1,386,222 117,463 1,352,112 1,314,820 129,924 96,868 717,859 5,298,3691973 Catch 2,096 221,337 28,030 21,791 144,362 75,694 3,920 148,161 645,3911973 Escapement 35,280 328,842 59,508 226,554 356,676 106,930 38,988 330,474 1,483,2521973 Inshore Run 37,376 550,179 87,538 248,345 501,038 182,624 42,908 478,635 2,128,6431974 Catch 10,072 172,253 83,528 148,595 379,496 110,932 2,151 390,371 1,297,3981974 Escapement 214,848 1,275,630 358,752 4,433,844 1,241,058 103,592 61,854 1,708,836 9,398,4141974 Inshore Run 224,920 1,447,883 442,280 4,582,439 1,620,554 214,524 64,005 2,099,207 10,695,8121975 Catch 13,279 964,024 78,060 1,605,407 1,466,730 184,856 14,558 369,456 4,696,3701975 Escapement 100,480 1,173,840 241,086 13,140,450 2,026,686 180,562 429,336 1,270,116 18,562,5561975 Inshore Run 113,759 2,137,864 319,146 14,745,857 3,493,416 365,418 443,894 1,639,572 23,258,9261976 Catch 55,396 1,329,788 159,100 1,458,180 1,033,700 293,016 174,923 621,255 5,125,3581976 Escapement 81,822 509,160 186,120 1,965,282 1,320,750 189,390 356,308 817,008 5,425,8401976 Inshore Run 137,218 1,838,948 345,220 3,423,462 2,354,450 482,406 531,231 1,438,263 10,551,1981977 Catch 50,134 1,780,567 50,529 739,464 1,377,616 201,004 92,623 272,383 4,564,3201977 Escapement 100,000 692,514 95,970 1,341,144 1,085,856 162,534 201,520 561,828 4,241,3661977 Inshore Run 150,134 2,473,081 146,499 2,080,608 2,463,472 363,538 294,143 834,211 8,805,6861978 Catch 225,653 1,207,294 547,916 3,815,636 1,082,379 422,100 7,995 1,849,389 9,158,3621978 Escapement 229,400 895,698 536,154 4,149,288 813,378 306,176 82,435 2,267,238 9,279,7671978 Inshore Run 455,053 2,102,992 1,084,070 7,964,924 1,895,757 728,276 90,430 4,116,627 18,438,1291979 Catch 278,934 2,257,332 982,573 13,418,829 1,294,063 393,337 391,118 1,931,200 20,947,3861979 Escapement 294,200 1,032,042 859,560 11,218,434 925,362 198,238 1,706,904 1,706,352 17,941,0921979 Inshore Run 573,134 3,289,374 1,842,133 24,637,263 2,219,425 591,575 2,098,022 3,637,552 38,888,4781980 Catch 262,997 2,623,066 1,138,391 12,743,074 2,114,386 591,470 885,875 1,559,849 21,919,1081980 Escapement 297,900 1,060,860 1,987,530 22,505,268 2,644,698 526,750 3,335,284 2,969,040 35,327,3301980 Inshore Run 560,897 3,683,926 3,125,921 35,248,342 4,759,084 1,118,220 4,221,159 4,528,889 57,246,4381981 Catch 228,411 4,361,406 1,637,749 5,234,733 5,529,665 620,288 2,116,066 3,334,348 23,062,6661981 Escapement 82,210 694,680 591,144 1,754,358 1,796,220 307,130 1,327,699 1,233,318 7,786,7591981 Inshore Run 310,621 5,056,086 2,228,893 6,989,091 7,325,885 927,418 3,443,765 4,567,666 30,849,4251982 Catch 532,854 2,447,514 1,394,087 1,858,475 2,614,473 486,762 581,718 1,139,192 2,494,366 13,549,4411982 Escapement 239,300 1,034,628 423,768 1,134,840 1,155,552 63,000 288,674 1,185,551 976,470 6,501,7831982 Inshore Run 772,154 3,482,142 1,817,855 2,993,315 3,770,025 549,762 870,392 2,324,743 3,470,836 20,051,2241983 Catch 461,075 6,755,256 632,333 16,534,901 4,563,396 515,546 529,776 3,349,451 2,911,291 36,253,0251983 Escapement 96,220 792,282 180,438 3,569,982 888,294 85,400 212,640 1,001,364 1,360,968 8,187,5881983 Inshore Run 557,295 7,547,538 812,771 20,104,883 5,451,690 600,946 742,416 4,350,815 4,272,259 44,440,6131984 Catch 339,313 5,190,413 250,066 12,523,803 1,683,594 330,267 213,213 2,658,376 978,736 24,167,7811984 Escapement 215,370 1,165,345 184,872 10,490,670 1,242,474 120,276 150,978 1,270,318 1,002,792 15,843,0951984 Inshore Run 554,683 6,355,758 434,938 23,014,473 2,926,068 450,543 364,191 3,928,694 1,981,528 40,010,8761985 Catch 146,469 7,537,273 247,531 6,183,103 1,849,521 138,591 133,263 6,468,862 654,232 23,358,8451985 Escapement 118,030 1,095,192 212,454 7,211,046 1,849,938 69,300 153,482 1,006,407 939,000 12,654,8491985 Inshore Run 264,499 8,632,465 459,985 13,394,149 3,699,459 207,891 286,745 7,475,269 1,593,232 36,013,6941986 Catch 168,482 4,852,935 569,007 787,303 1,936,386 256,910 191,158 5,002,949 953,672 14,718,8021986 Escapement 230,180 1,152,180 307,728 1,179,322 1,977,645 168,340 203,384 1,015,582 818,652 7,053,0131986 Inshore Run 398,662 6,005,115 876,735 1,966,625 3,914,031 425,250 394,542 6,018,531 1,772,324 21,771,8151987 Catch 142,591 5,356,669 447,382 3,526,824 1,316,587 891,184 274,613 2,128,652 1,490,457 15,574,9591987 Escapement 154,210 1,273,553 169,236 6,065,880 1,061,806 225,034 278,276 686,894 1,337,172 11,252,0611987 Inshore Run 296,801 6,630,222 616,618 9,592,704 2,378,393 1,116,218 552,889 2,815,546 2,827,629 26,827,0201988 Catch 124,968 6,456,598 235,470 2,654,364 701,504 260,412 673,408 1,523,520 882,321 13,512,5651988 Escapement 194,630 1,612,745 170,454 4,065,216 1,037,862 163,208 309,012 654,412 866,778 9,074,3171988 Inshore Run 319,598 8,069,343 405,924 6,719,580 1,739,366 423,620 982,420 2,177,932 1,749,099 22,586,8821989 Catch 336,918 8,901,994 752,320 11,456,509 2,016,529 703,109 68,375 3,146,239 1,332,756 28,714,7491989 Escapement 196,760 1,611,566 461,610 8,317,500 1,161,984 513,421 104,240 1,713,287 1,186,410 15,266,7781989 Inshore Run 533,678 10,513,560 1,213,930 19,774,009 3,178,513 1,216,530 172,615 4,859,526 2,519,166 43,981,5271990 Catch 386,173 10,371,762 914,544 10,551,217 6,334,834 1,076,994 168,012 2,149,009 1,541,005 33,493,5501990 Escapement 168,760 2,191,582 365,802 6,970,020 2,092,578 680,368 166,297 749,478 1,069,440 14,454,3251990 Inshore Run 554,933 12,563,344 1,280,346 17,521,237 8,427,412 1,757,362 334,309 2,898,487 2,610,445 47,947,875L-2
Table L-2 Current sockeye stock assessment activities <strong>and</strong> uses in Bristol Bay Alaska. Table was reproduced from Clark(2005).Project/Activity Pre-Season Forecasts In-Season <strong>Management</strong> Post-Season AssessmentTotal Escapement Assessment(Ugashik, Egegik, Naknek, Branch, Kvichak, Igushik, Wood,Nuyakuk, <strong>and</strong> Togiak Towers <strong>and</strong> Nushagak Sonar projects)Historic annual data used Daily counts <strong>and</strong> cumulative counts usedto estimate run timing <strong>and</strong> strengthAnnual total data usedEscapement Age Composition(Ugashik, Egegik, Naknek, Branch, Kvichak, Igushik, Wood,Nuyakuk, <strong>and</strong> Togiak Tower <strong>and</strong> Nushagak Sonar projects)Historic annual data usedData used for assessment of pre-seasonforecast accuracy <strong>and</strong> for in-seasonassignment of catch to stock of originData used for brood tables<strong>and</strong> for catch allocationsInside Test Fishing <strong>and</strong> Aerial Surveys(Ugashik, Egegik, Naknek-Kvichak, <strong>and</strong> Igushik test fishprojects)Not usedUsed to estimate number of fish abovedistrict but below towerNot usedOutside Test Fishing(Port Moller)Not usedUsed to estimate number of fish that havenot yet reached Bristol BayNot usedCatch Data (daily reports <strong>and</strong> yearend fish tickets)(Ugashik, Egegik, Naknek-Kvichak, Nushagak, <strong>and</strong> Togiakfishing districts)Historic annual data usedUsed to estimate run timing <strong>and</strong> strengthby districtAnnual total data usedCatch Age Composition(Ugashik, Egegik, Naknek-Kvichak, Nushagak, <strong>and</strong> Togiakfishing districts)Historic annual data usedData used for assessment of pre-seasonforecast accuracy <strong>and</strong> for in-seasonassignment of catch to stock of originData used for brood tables<strong>and</strong> for catch allocationsSmolt Enumeration(Kvichak, Naknek, Egegik, Ugashik, Wood, <strong>and</strong> Nuyakuk)Historic annual data used attimesNot usedNot used, but have potentialfor escapement goalsL-3
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Fraser River Sockeye Fisheriesand F
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. Catch Monitorin
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implement harvest rate ceilings to
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Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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List of TablesTable 1 Annual estima
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List of FiguresFigure 1 Fraser sock
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Figure 21 Estimates of total catch,
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List of AppendicesAppendix A Statem
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used to (1) estimate catch for each
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FISHERIES HARVESTINGOverview of Fis
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Figure 1 Fraser sockeye marine migr
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Table 2 Summary of available inform
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Table 3 provides the annual estimat
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Table 4 Summary of available inform
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season update teleconference meetin
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Catch Estimation MethodsThe procedu
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catch estimates was detected using
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of precision. The overall rating fo
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1998-00 - No agreements with Sto:lo
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initiation of the AFS Agreements in
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Table 12 Comparison of annual socke
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Table 13 Annual estimates of the ha
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Canadian Commercial FisheriesThe pr
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logbook systems. In addition to the
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Table 15 Fraser River sockeye salmo
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Available catch estimates for the r
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Table 17 Summary of available infor
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anged from less than 100 to over 30
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Washington State Recreational Fishe
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equirements have been applied to se
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salmon were biopsied or tagged with
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Stellako-Late Stuart and 531 Adams)
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FISHERIES MANAGEMENTOverview of Pre
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parents of the recruits). Effective
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within the confidence limits. For e
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Table 20 Pre-season forecast models
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different from the straight line),
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Prediction ability of ForecastsProp
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Stock MAPEReturn Explainedby Foreca
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test fisheries are analyzed in-seas
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Inputs to the cumulative-normal mod
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eginning of the runs, but by mid-ru
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Median Absolute Percent Error (1997
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variety of hydroacoustic techniques
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enefited from improved technologies
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Post-season estimates of Escapement
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precision achieved was considerably
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m 3 /sec during the sockeye run. Fi
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Escapement TargetsOur evaluations r
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20% of the average of the 4-year se
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Table 24 Low escapement benchmarks
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Table 25 Comparison of post-season
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fisheries have been permitted to ta
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sub-dominant cycle years (e.g., 200
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SummaryLow Escapement Benchmarks (L
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Extent of OverharvestingThe estimat
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2,000,0001,800,000Early StuartCatch
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Cultus Lake Sockeye Recovery Effort
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Figure 23 Number of adult sockeye e
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Recovery ObjectivesIn anticipation
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2008 the escapement estimate was 34
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BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA SOCKEYE FISHERY
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accurate, precise, and timely, (2)
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The Bay is subjected to large tidal
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activity (Bocking and Peterman 1988
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% of total run45%40%35%30%25%20%15%
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Harvest estimation methodsTotal har
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Millions of sockeyeYearFigure 27 Hi
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management structure complements th
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1.5Togiak4.03.5NushagakMillions of
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Millions of sockeye7.06.05.04.03.02
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logical given the dynamics of the r
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1.61.4Number of fish (millions)1.21
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Pre-season forecastsAs noted above,
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8.0y = 0.79x + 1.59R² = 0.417.8Log
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12010080MAPE60402001971-1980 1981-1
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Median percent error (MPE)3020100-1
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Table 28 Average age composition of
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dampeners to reduce surface turbule
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current year’s run is accounted f
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and 1999 Revised Annexes. This inte
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Bristol Bay was in 1997 when there
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upon by managers to determine when
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STATE OF THE SCIENCECatch Monitorin
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2006) due to concerns regarding the
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RECOMMENDATIONS1. DFO needs to ensu
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LITERATURE CITEDAdkison, M.D. and R
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Beacham, T.D., M. Lapointe, J.R. Ca
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CSAS. 2007 Pre-season run size fore
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Evans, D.G., J.B. Browning and B.G.
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Hardie, D.C., D.A. Nagtegaal, K. He
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Pacific Salmon Commission. 1998. Re
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Robichaud, D., J.J. Smith, K. K. En
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Valderrama, D. and J.L. Anderson. 2
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Appendix A Statement of Work.Cohen
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All sectors3.7 The Contractor will
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“State of the Science”. Comment
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3.3 The Contractor will review and
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Appendix BList of requests to DFO b
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DFO Request 15: Recent CSAS documen
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Item Description DateRequestedReque
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Appendix CFirst Nation catch monito
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Table C-1 Summary of information re
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Table C-2 Weekly catch monitoring e
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Table D-1 Summary of information re
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community of Port Renfrew. The area
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IPrecision ( + % of the estimate)10
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Table E-2 Annual Strait of Georgia
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Table E-4 Annual Johnstone Strait e
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Table E-6 Lower Fraser River recrea
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0 would mean that the forecast does
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- Page 236 and 237: Fraser River Indicator Stocks (list
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- Page 254 and 255: Appendix H Pre-season forecast: sum
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- Page 288 and 289: utility of pre-season forecasts. Pr
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- Page 302 and 303: REVIEW 3/3Reviewer Name: Dr Sean Co
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