Fraser River Sockeye Fisheries and Fisheries Management - Cohen ...

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All sectors3.7 The Contractor will describe and summarize the consequences of non-retentionfisheries (First Nations, commercial, recreational) on sockeye physiology,survival and abundance.Fisheries Management3.8 The Contractor will describe and evaluate the accuracy, precision and reliabilityof pre-season forecasting methods. This work will include a description of theapplication of pre-season forecasting in harvest management.3.9 The Contractor will also describe and evaluate the accuracy, precision andreliability of other methods, if any, that are available for pre-season forecastingnot historically or currently used by DFO and the Pacific Salmon Commission.3.10 The Contractor will describe and evaluate the accuracy, precision and reliabilityof in-season run-size abundance estimation methods. This work will include adescription of the application of in-season and post-season run-size abundanceestimation in harvest management.3.11 The Contractor will also describe and evaluate the accuracy, precision andreliability of other methods, if any, that are available for in-season and postseasonrun-size abundance estimation not historically or currently used by DFOand the PSC.3.12 The Contractor will describe and evaluate the accuracy, precision and reliabilityof in-season and post-season escapement enumeration methods used historicallyand currently by DFO and the PSC.3.13 The Contractor will also describe and evaluate the accuracy, precision andreliability of other methods, if any, that are available for enumerating sockeye nothistorically or currently used by DFO and the PSC.3.14 The Contractor will analyze historical performance of the in-season assessmentprocess, to include changes in estimates of in-season run sizes, with particularemphasis on how long it has taken within each season to correctly assess the finalin-season run size. The key issue to be described is how quickly the in-seasonassessment process can respond, to meet escapement goals.A-3
3.15 The Contractor will evaluate the scientific basis for determining escapementtargets. The current and historical effectiveness of fisheries management,including reliance on the Fraser River Sockeye Spawning Initiative (FRSSI), toachieve sockeye escapement goals for individual CUs will be evaluated.3.16 The extent and impact of any overharvesting from 1985 to present will also beevaluated.3.17 The Contractor will summarize the current conservation status of the Cultus Lakesockeye population, previously assessed by COSEWIC (Committee on the Statusof Endangered Wildlife in Canada) to be endangered, and will evaluate whetherDFO’s recovery efforts have been effective in meeting stated recovery objectives.The Contractor will identify what recovery actions were available but not pursuedby the Recovery Program.3.18 The Contractor will develop rebuilding strategies for Fraser River sockeye.SW4Deliverables4.1 The Contractor will organize a Project Inception meeting to be held within 2weeks of the contract date in the Commission office. The meeting agenda will beset by the Contractor and will include a work plan for project implementation.4.2 The main deliverables of the contract are 2 reports evaluating Fraser Riversockeye fisheries management investigations: (1) a progress report, and (2) a finalreport. The style for the Reports will be a hybrid between a scientific style and apolicy document. An example of a document which follows this format is theB.C. Pacific Salmon Forum Final Report (www.pacificsalmonforum.ca).4.3 A Progress Report (maximum 20 pages) will be provided to the CohenCommission in pdf and Word formats by Nov. 1, 2010. Comments on theProgress Report will be returned to the contractor by Nov. 15, 2010.4.4 A draft Final Report will be provided to the Cohen Commission in pdf and Wordformats by Dec. 15, 2010. The draft Final Report should contain an expandedExecutive Summary of 1-2 pages in length as well as a 1-page summary of theA-4
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Fraser River Sockeye Fisheriesand F
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. Catch Monitorin
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implement harvest rate ceilings to
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Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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List of TablesTable 1 Annual estima
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List of FiguresFigure 1 Fraser sock
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Figure 21 Estimates of total catch,
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List of AppendicesAppendix A Statem
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used to (1) estimate catch for each
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FISHERIES HARVESTINGOverview of Fis
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Figure 1 Fraser sockeye marine migr
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Table 2 Summary of available inform
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Table 3 provides the annual estimat
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Table 4 Summary of available inform
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season update teleconference meetin
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Catch Estimation MethodsThe procedu
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catch estimates was detected using
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of precision. The overall rating fo
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1998-00 - No agreements with Sto:lo
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initiation of the AFS Agreements in
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Table 12 Comparison of annual socke
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Table 13 Annual estimates of the ha
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Canadian Commercial FisheriesThe pr
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logbook systems. In addition to the
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Table 15 Fraser River sockeye salmo
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Available catch estimates for the r
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Table 17 Summary of available infor
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anged from less than 100 to over 30
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Washington State Recreational Fishe
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equirements have been applied to se
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salmon were biopsied or tagged with
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Stellako-Late Stuart and 531 Adams)
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FISHERIES MANAGEMENTOverview of Pre
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parents of the recruits). Effective
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within the confidence limits. For e
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Table 20 Pre-season forecast models
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different from the straight line),
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Prediction ability of ForecastsProp
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Stock MAPEReturn Explainedby Foreca
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test fisheries are analyzed in-seas
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Inputs to the cumulative-normal mod
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eginning of the runs, but by mid-ru
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Median Absolute Percent Error (1997
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variety of hydroacoustic techniques
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enefited from improved technologies
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Post-season estimates of Escapement
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precision achieved was considerably
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m 3 /sec during the sockeye run. Fi
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Escapement TargetsOur evaluations r
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20% of the average of the 4-year se
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Table 24 Low escapement benchmarks
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Table 25 Comparison of post-season
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fisheries have been permitted to ta
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sub-dominant cycle years (e.g., 200
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SummaryLow Escapement Benchmarks (L
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Extent of OverharvestingThe estimat
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2,000,0001,800,000Early StuartCatch
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Cultus Lake Sockeye Recovery Effort
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Figure 23 Number of adult sockeye e
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Recovery ObjectivesIn anticipation
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2008 the escapement estimate was 34
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BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA SOCKEYE FISHERY
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accurate, precise, and timely, (2)
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The Bay is subjected to large tidal
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activity (Bocking and Peterman 1988
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% of total run45%40%35%30%25%20%15%
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Harvest estimation methodsTotal har
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Millions of sockeyeYearFigure 27 Hi
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management structure complements th
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1.5Togiak4.03.5NushagakMillions of
Page 146 and 147: Millions of sockeye7.06.05.04.03.02
Page 148 and 149: logical given the dynamics of the r
Page 150 and 151: 1.61.4Number of fish (millions)1.21
Page 152 and 153: Pre-season forecastsAs noted above,
Page 154 and 155: 8.0y = 0.79x + 1.59R² = 0.417.8Log
Page 156 and 157: 12010080MAPE60402001971-1980 1981-1
Page 158 and 159: Median percent error (MPE)3020100-1
Page 160 and 161: Table 28 Average age composition of
Page 162 and 163: dampeners to reduce surface turbule
Page 164 and 165: current year’s run is accounted f
Page 166 and 167: and 1999 Revised Annexes. This inte
Page 168 and 169: Bristol Bay was in 1997 when there
Page 170 and 171: upon by managers to determine when
Page 172 and 173: STATE OF THE SCIENCECatch Monitorin
Page 174 and 175: 2006) due to concerns regarding the
Page 176 and 177: RECOMMENDATIONS1. DFO needs to ensu
Page 178 and 179: LITERATURE CITEDAdkison, M.D. and R
Page 180 and 181: Beacham, T.D., M. Lapointe, J.R. Ca
Page 182 and 183: CSAS. 2007 Pre-season run size fore
Page 184 and 185: Evans, D.G., J.B. Browning and B.G.
Page 186 and 187: Hardie, D.C., D.A. Nagtegaal, K. He
Page 188 and 189: Pacific Salmon Commission. 1998. Re
Page 190 and 191: Robichaud, D., J.J. Smith, K. K. En
Page 192 and 193: Valderrama, D. and J.L. Anderson. 2
Page 194 and 195: Appendix A Statement of Work.Cohen
Page 198 and 199: “State of the Science”. Comment
Page 200 and 201: 3.3 The Contractor will review and
Page 202 and 203: Appendix BList of requests to DFO b
Page 204 and 205: DFO Request 15: Recent CSAS documen
Page 206 and 207: Item Description DateRequestedReque
Page 208 and 209: Appendix CFirst Nation catch monito
Page 210 and 211: Table C-1 Summary of information re
Page 212 and 213: Table C-2 Weekly catch monitoring e
Page 214 and 215: Table D-1 Summary of information re
Page 216 and 217: community of Port Renfrew. The area
Page 218 and 219: IPrecision ( + % of the estimate)10
Page 220 and 221: Table E-2 Annual Strait of Georgia
Page 222 and 223: Table E-4 Annual Johnstone Strait e
Page 224 and 225: Table E-6 Lower Fraser River recrea
Page 226 and 227: 0 would mean that the forecast does
Page 228 and 229: the general ups and downs of the ob
Page 230 and 231: Appendix G Graphical representation
Page 232 and 233: Early Stuart Timing GroupEarly Stua
Page 234 and 235: Summer-run Timing GroupSummer run7.
Page 236 and 237: Fraser River Indicator Stocks (list
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Fraser River Indicator Stocks (list
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Appendix H Pre-season forecast: sum
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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Appendix I Methods of In-season Sto
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Marine Gillnet Test FisheriesThe gi
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Expansion line (x1000)9080706050403
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Table I-2 Mean values for purse sei
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Figure I-5 Map of test fishing loca
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Appendix J The Hydroacoustics progr
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An SEF project was secured in 2007
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Conservation action Comments Partne
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Table K-2 Summary of actions to rec
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Table L-1 Catch and escapement of s
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Table L-3 Performance criteria of p
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Ratio of annual return to the avera
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Appendix M Reviewer comments on the
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Request #5: Sockeye allocations by
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utility of pre-season forecasts. Pr
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3. Are there additional quantitativ
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made via tagging and experimentatio
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Page 60: The authors make extensive
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ensure the reader does not assume t
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The reported excerpts from Bradford
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(budgets, legal issues, pseudo-cons
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REVIEW 3/3Reviewer Name: Dr Sean Co
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season forecasts that eventually co
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allocation shows "No agreement", an
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size.Figures showing errors for pre
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Goals can easily generate confusion
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Total rows from all these tables be
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Exploitation Rate100%90%80%70%60%50
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Exploitation RateEarly Stuart90%80%
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