Fraser River Sockeye Fisheries and Fisheries Management - Cohen ...

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Median percent error (MPE)3020100-10-20-30Median abosulte percent error(MAPE)4035302520151050Proportion of return variationexplained by forecast (R 2 )1.000.750.500.250.00Figure 36 Average in-season forecasting performance of the sockeye total run inBristol Bay, Alaska (2001-2010). The black line represents the cumulativecatch+escapement model (all districts pooled) and the gray line the PortMoller model. MPE and MAPE represents the median percent error andmedian absolute error across years. The R 2 value was based on the best-fitlinear regression line of log 10 (observed run) versus log 10 (forecasted run).155
District test fishingOn an as-needed basis and typically early in the season, ADF&G managers will charterfishing vessels to conduct test fishing with commercial gillnets in and around the fishingdistricts. This is typically used in place of fishery performance when the fishery is closedand provides a crude index of abundance to detect the degree of “build up” of fish in thedistrict. In large-run years when the fishery is happening daily there is little use fordistrict test fishing. In a small-run year to a district, AMBs may deploy district testfishing frequently. District test fishing merely gauges substantially small or large groupsof fish in the district and is generally inadequate for any sort of precise forecasting ofabundance.Commercial fishery performance with catch and age samplingA fleet of several hundred fishing vessels usually provides a reliable picture of thenumber of fish in the district and AMBs are in regular contact with fleet managers toobtain catch rates early and throughout the fishing periods. Given relatively high harvestrates, particularly sophisticated or reliable forecasting models have not been needed (ordeveloped) using fishery catch rates. The effects of weather, tides, and number of vesselswould certainly be significant factors in such relationships.ADF&G technicians sample the commercial catch from inshore fishing districts for age,sex, length, and weight information. Age composition is estimated with scales takenfrom harvested fish at processing plants throughout the Bay. Sample sizes are alwayshigh and afford minimum uncertainty due to sampling error. These data are used inseasonto compare to the pre-season forecasted age composition (to look for anomaliesthat may indicate sources of error in the pre-season forecast). A comparison of the agecomposition from Port Moller and the district catch can provide some indication of therelative strength of the different stocks at Port Moller (to augment the genetic-based stockcomposition). These age data are also used on a post-season basis to build age-specificcatch estimates for each district and subsequently all nine natal rivers. Stock-specific agecompositions averaged over the past 20 years show how stocks differ with respect to howmuch time they each spend in freshwater versus the marine environment (Table 28).Catch numbers and trends were discussed in the Harvesting section above.156
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Fraser River Sockeye Fisheriesand F
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. Catch Monitorin
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implement harvest rate ceilings to
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Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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List of TablesTable 1 Annual estima
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List of FiguresFigure 1 Fraser sock
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Figure 21 Estimates of total catch,
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List of AppendicesAppendix A Statem
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used to (1) estimate catch for each
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FISHERIES HARVESTINGOverview of Fis
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Figure 1 Fraser sockeye marine migr
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Table 2 Summary of available inform
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Table 3 provides the annual estimat
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Table 4 Summary of available inform
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season update teleconference meetin
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Catch Estimation MethodsThe procedu
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catch estimates was detected using
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of precision. The overall rating fo
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1998-00 - No agreements with Sto:lo
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initiation of the AFS Agreements in
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Table 12 Comparison of annual socke
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Table 13 Annual estimates of the ha
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Canadian Commercial FisheriesThe pr
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logbook systems. In addition to the
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Table 15 Fraser River sockeye salmo
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Available catch estimates for the r
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Table 17 Summary of available infor
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anged from less than 100 to over 30
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Washington State Recreational Fishe
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equirements have been applied to se
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salmon were biopsied or tagged with
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Stellako-Late Stuart and 531 Adams)
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FISHERIES MANAGEMENTOverview of Pre
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parents of the recruits). Effective
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within the confidence limits. For e
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Table 20 Pre-season forecast models
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different from the straight line),
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Prediction ability of ForecastsProp
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Stock MAPEReturn Explainedby Foreca
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test fisheries are analyzed in-seas
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Inputs to the cumulative-normal mod
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eginning of the runs, but by mid-ru
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Median Absolute Percent Error (1997
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variety of hydroacoustic techniques
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enefited from improved technologies
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Post-season estimates of Escapement
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precision achieved was considerably
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m 3 /sec during the sockeye run. Fi
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Escapement TargetsOur evaluations r
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20% of the average of the 4-year se
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Table 24 Low escapement benchmarks
Page 108 and 109: Table 25 Comparison of post-season
Page 110 and 111: fisheries have been permitted to ta
Page 112 and 113: sub-dominant cycle years (e.g., 200
Page 114 and 115: SummaryLow Escapement Benchmarks (L
Page 116 and 117: Extent of OverharvestingThe estimat
Page 118 and 119: 2,000,0001,800,000Early StuartCatch
Page 120 and 121: Cultus Lake Sockeye Recovery Effort
Page 122 and 123: Figure 23 Number of adult sockeye e
Page 124 and 125: Recovery ObjectivesIn anticipation
Page 126 and 127: 2008 the escapement estimate was 34
Page 128 and 129: BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA SOCKEYE FISHERY
Page 130 and 131: accurate, precise, and timely, (2)
Page 132 and 133: The Bay is subjected to large tidal
Page 134 and 135: activity (Bocking and Peterman 1988
Page 136 and 137: % of total run45%40%35%30%25%20%15%
Page 138 and 139: Harvest estimation methodsTotal har
Page 140 and 141: Millions of sockeyeYearFigure 27 Hi
Page 142 and 143: management structure complements th
Page 144 and 145: 1.5Togiak4.03.5NushagakMillions of
Page 146 and 147: Millions of sockeye7.06.05.04.03.02
Page 148 and 149: logical given the dynamics of the r
Page 150 and 151: 1.61.4Number of fish (millions)1.21
Page 152 and 153: Pre-season forecastsAs noted above,
Page 154 and 155: 8.0y = 0.79x + 1.59R² = 0.417.8Log
Page 156 and 157: 12010080MAPE60402001971-1980 1981-1
Page 160 and 161: Table 28 Average age composition of
Page 162 and 163: dampeners to reduce surface turbule
Page 164 and 165: current year’s run is accounted f
Page 166 and 167: and 1999 Revised Annexes. This inte
Page 168 and 169: Bristol Bay was in 1997 when there
Page 170 and 171: upon by managers to determine when
Page 172 and 173: STATE OF THE SCIENCECatch Monitorin
Page 174 and 175: 2006) due to concerns regarding the
Page 176 and 177: RECOMMENDATIONS1. DFO needs to ensu
Page 178 and 179: LITERATURE CITEDAdkison, M.D. and R
Page 180 and 181: Beacham, T.D., M. Lapointe, J.R. Ca
Page 182 and 183: CSAS. 2007 Pre-season run size fore
Page 184 and 185: Evans, D.G., J.B. Browning and B.G.
Page 186 and 187: Hardie, D.C., D.A. Nagtegaal, K. He
Page 188 and 189: Pacific Salmon Commission. 1998. Re
Page 190 and 191: Robichaud, D., J.J. Smith, K. K. En
Page 192 and 193: Valderrama, D. and J.L. Anderson. 2
Page 194 and 195: Appendix A Statement of Work.Cohen
Page 196 and 197: All sectors3.7 The Contractor will
Page 198 and 199: “State of the Science”. Comment
Page 200 and 201: 3.3 The Contractor will review and
Page 202 and 203: Appendix BList of requests to DFO b
Page 204 and 205: DFO Request 15: Recent CSAS documen
Page 206 and 207: Item Description DateRequestedReque
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Appendix CFirst Nation catch monito
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Table C-1 Summary of information re
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Table C-2 Weekly catch monitoring e
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Table D-1 Summary of information re
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community of Port Renfrew. The area
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IPrecision ( + % of the estimate)10
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Table E-2 Annual Strait of Georgia
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Table E-4 Annual Johnstone Strait e
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Table E-6 Lower Fraser River recrea
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0 would mean that the forecast does
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the general ups and downs of the ob
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Appendix G Graphical representation
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Early Stuart Timing GroupEarly Stua
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Summer-run Timing GroupSummer run7.
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Fraser River Indicator Stocks (list
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Appendix H Pre-season forecast: sum
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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Appendix I Methods of In-season Sto
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Marine Gillnet Test FisheriesThe gi
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Expansion line (x1000)9080706050403
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Table I-2 Mean values for purse sei
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Figure I-5 Map of test fishing loca
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Appendix J The Hydroacoustics progr
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An SEF project was secured in 2007
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Conservation action Comments Partne
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Table K-2 Summary of actions to rec
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Table L-1 Catch and escapement of s
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Table L-3 Performance criteria of p
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Ratio of annual return to the avera
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Appendix M Reviewer comments on the
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Request #5: Sockeye allocations by
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utility of pre-season forecasts. Pr
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3. Are there additional quantitativ
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made via tagging and experimentatio
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Page 60: The authors make extensive
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ensure the reader does not assume t
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The reported excerpts from Bradford
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(budgets, legal issues, pseudo-cons
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REVIEW 3/3Reviewer Name: Dr Sean Co
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season forecasts that eventually co
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allocation shows "No agreement", an
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size.Figures showing errors for pre
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Goals can easily generate confusion
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Total rows from all these tables be
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Exploitation Rate100%90%80%70%60%50
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Exploitation RateEarly Stuart90%80%
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