Fraser River Sockeye Fisheries and Fisheries Management - Cohen ...

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current year’s run is accounted for inshore. We combined the forecasts and observedruns from all districts to facilitate comparison with the Port Moller model (Figure 36).Instead of trying to forecast possible catches, AMBs use these total run forecasts to gaugehow much room they might have to make up or get behind on escapement if they open orclose a fishing period. The less certain that these forecasts project some remainingsurplus production, the more conservative AMBs are with granting openings.Other non-government organizations make C+E forecasts available to ADF&G. FRI usesthe Port Moller test fishery and the cumulative C+E to update the pre-season forecast andpredicts system specific total runs in a more formal statistical setting. Essentially, thepre-season, Port Moller, and C+E forecasts are averaged to provide a forecast every fewdays in-season with each method being weighted by the inverse of its variance (RayHilborn, Professor, University of Washington, pers. comm.). Of course, the pre-seasonforecast and its weight remain constant, but Port Moller and C+E change, with PortMoller reaching its maximum influence midway through the season and C+E dominatingtowards the end of the run. Similar to Bristol Bay, Henderson et al. (1987) found the preseasonforecast of sockeye for Smith Sound, B.C. to outperform in-season forecasts basedon C+E until the very end of the season. Fried and Hilborn (1988) tried a Bayesianapproach to combine forecasts and update them each day but this approach is not used.In-season forecasting uncertainty remains high, accuracy low (until it is too late in theseason to be useful), and a magic bullet is yet to be found.Post-season EvaluationsFollowing each fishing season ADF&G releases four publications as a service to thepublic and user groups via email and by posting them on ADF&G’s Bristol Bay HomePage (See http://www.cf.adfg.state.ak.us/region2/finfish/salmon/bbayhome.php ). First,catch and escapement estimates are finalized immediately following the end of thefishing season and reported in a Season Summary Report. These estimates are used toupdate brood tables and forecast the run for the following year; these Pre-seasonForecasts (second publication) are always reported no later than November and in timefor the annual Pacific Marine Expo, a fishing industry trade show hosted in Seattle.Third, Area Management Reports (AMRs) are issued sometime before the beginning ofthe next fishing season. These reports summarize the fishing season in much greaterdetail than the Season Summaries and offer the catch and escapement by stock, age, andreturn year for current year and previous 20 years. Fourth, the next season’s Outlook161
Report is released in March and gives an overview of the pre-season forecast, anyregulatory changes that will be implemented, and the anticipated processing capacity.On a 3-year cycle that coincides with the BOF meetings for the Bay, an additional report,the Escapement Goal Review, is issued that details the results of updated spawner-recruitanalyses, makes recommendations for any escapement goal changes (Appendix L), andreviews management’s success in achieving these goals for each stock. The consistencywith which Bristol Bay escapement goals are met is illustrated in Figure 30 and Figure28. One exception was high escapement to the Wood River in 2006 during anabnormally large return of small-for-their-age 2-ocean fish when the fleet was incapableof exerting enough exploitation to stop the run with the gear they had available. Anotherappears to be the Alagnak River from 2003 to present. The Alagnak stock is passivelymanaged with a risk-based escapement goal to give way for actively managing theKvichak. Alagnak experienced a dramatic and substantial increase in run sizes beginningin 2003 and this coincided with an unproductive period for the Kvichak River. Note,however, that Figure 30 somewhat exaggerates the increase run size over earlier timesbecause the enumeration method on the Alagnak River switched from one based on aerialsurveys to tower counts in the early 2000s (J. Regnart, pers. comm.). These isolatedexceptions notwithstanding, the consistency with which escapement goals are met foreach stock across a wide range of run magnitudes is a testament to the quality andtimeliness of in-season data, the level of fishing power available to the managers, and theauthority with which they have to impose it.COMPARISON OF FRASER & BRISTOL BAY SOCKEYEFISHERIESThe purpose of this section is to examine the key components of the Bristol Bay andFraser River sockeye fisheries and provide the reader with the context for understandingthe perceived and actual differences in the approaches used to manage and assess thesefisheries.Management StructureThe Bristol Bay and Fraser sockeye fisheries are substantially different in the structureand complexity of the management process. Many aspects of the management of Frasersockeye stocks and fisheries are affected by the 1985 Canada/U.S. Pacific Salmon Treaty162
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Fraser River Sockeye Fisheriesand F
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. Catch Monitorin
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implement harvest rate ceilings to
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Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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List of TablesTable 1 Annual estima
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List of FiguresFigure 1 Fraser sock
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Figure 21 Estimates of total catch,
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List of AppendicesAppendix A Statem
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used to (1) estimate catch for each
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FISHERIES HARVESTINGOverview of Fis
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Figure 1 Fraser sockeye marine migr
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Table 2 Summary of available inform
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Table 3 provides the annual estimat
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Table 4 Summary of available inform
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season update teleconference meetin
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Catch Estimation MethodsThe procedu
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catch estimates was detected using
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of precision. The overall rating fo
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1998-00 - No agreements with Sto:lo
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initiation of the AFS Agreements in
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Table 12 Comparison of annual socke
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Table 13 Annual estimates of the ha
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Canadian Commercial FisheriesThe pr
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logbook systems. In addition to the
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Table 15 Fraser River sockeye salmo
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Available catch estimates for the r
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Table 17 Summary of available infor
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anged from less than 100 to over 30
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Washington State Recreational Fishe
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equirements have been applied to se
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salmon were biopsied or tagged with
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Stellako-Late Stuart and 531 Adams)
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FISHERIES MANAGEMENTOverview of Pre
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parents of the recruits). Effective
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within the confidence limits. For e
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Table 20 Pre-season forecast models
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different from the straight line),
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Prediction ability of ForecastsProp
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Stock MAPEReturn Explainedby Foreca
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test fisheries are analyzed in-seas
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Inputs to the cumulative-normal mod
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eginning of the runs, but by mid-ru
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Median Absolute Percent Error (1997
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variety of hydroacoustic techniques
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enefited from improved technologies
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Post-season estimates of Escapement
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precision achieved was considerably
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m 3 /sec during the sockeye run. Fi
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Escapement TargetsOur evaluations r
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20% of the average of the 4-year se
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Table 24 Low escapement benchmarks
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Table 25 Comparison of post-season
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fisheries have been permitted to ta
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sub-dominant cycle years (e.g., 200
Page 114 and 115: SummaryLow Escapement Benchmarks (L
Page 116 and 117: Extent of OverharvestingThe estimat
Page 118 and 119: 2,000,0001,800,000Early StuartCatch
Page 120 and 121: Cultus Lake Sockeye Recovery Effort
Page 122 and 123: Figure 23 Number of adult sockeye e
Page 124 and 125: Recovery ObjectivesIn anticipation
Page 126 and 127: 2008 the escapement estimate was 34
Page 128 and 129: BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA SOCKEYE FISHERY
Page 130 and 131: accurate, precise, and timely, (2)
Page 132 and 133: The Bay is subjected to large tidal
Page 134 and 135: activity (Bocking and Peterman 1988
Page 136 and 137: % of total run45%40%35%30%25%20%15%
Page 138 and 139: Harvest estimation methodsTotal har
Page 140 and 141: Millions of sockeyeYearFigure 27 Hi
Page 142 and 143: management structure complements th
Page 144 and 145: 1.5Togiak4.03.5NushagakMillions of
Page 146 and 147: Millions of sockeye7.06.05.04.03.02
Page 148 and 149: logical given the dynamics of the r
Page 150 and 151: 1.61.4Number of fish (millions)1.21
Page 152 and 153: Pre-season forecastsAs noted above,
Page 154 and 155: 8.0y = 0.79x + 1.59R² = 0.417.8Log
Page 156 and 157: 12010080MAPE60402001971-1980 1981-1
Page 158 and 159: Median percent error (MPE)3020100-1
Page 160 and 161: Table 28 Average age composition of
Page 162 and 163: dampeners to reduce surface turbule
Page 166 and 167: and 1999 Revised Annexes. This inte
Page 168 and 169: Bristol Bay was in 1997 when there
Page 170 and 171: upon by managers to determine when
Page 172 and 173: STATE OF THE SCIENCECatch Monitorin
Page 174 and 175: 2006) due to concerns regarding the
Page 176 and 177: RECOMMENDATIONS1. DFO needs to ensu
Page 178 and 179: LITERATURE CITEDAdkison, M.D. and R
Page 180 and 181: Beacham, T.D., M. Lapointe, J.R. Ca
Page 182 and 183: CSAS. 2007 Pre-season run size fore
Page 184 and 185: Evans, D.G., J.B. Browning and B.G.
Page 186 and 187: Hardie, D.C., D.A. Nagtegaal, K. He
Page 188 and 189: Pacific Salmon Commission. 1998. Re
Page 190 and 191: Robichaud, D., J.J. Smith, K. K. En
Page 192 and 193: Valderrama, D. and J.L. Anderson. 2
Page 194 and 195: Appendix A Statement of Work.Cohen
Page 196 and 197: All sectors3.7 The Contractor will
Page 198 and 199: “State of the Science”. Comment
Page 200 and 201: 3.3 The Contractor will review and
Page 202 and 203: Appendix BList of requests to DFO b
Page 204 and 205: DFO Request 15: Recent CSAS documen
Page 206 and 207: Item Description DateRequestedReque
Page 208 and 209: Appendix CFirst Nation catch monito
Page 210 and 211: Table C-1 Summary of information re
Page 212 and 213: Table C-2 Weekly catch monitoring e
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Table D-1 Summary of information re
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community of Port Renfrew. The area
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IPrecision ( + % of the estimate)10
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Table E-2 Annual Strait of Georgia
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Table E-4 Annual Johnstone Strait e
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Table E-6 Lower Fraser River recrea
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0 would mean that the forecast does
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the general ups and downs of the ob
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Appendix G Graphical representation
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Early Stuart Timing GroupEarly Stua
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Summer-run Timing GroupSummer run7.
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Fraser River Indicator Stocks (list
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Appendix H Pre-season forecast: sum
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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Appendix I Methods of In-season Sto
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Marine Gillnet Test FisheriesThe gi
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Expansion line (x1000)9080706050403
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Table I-2 Mean values for purse sei
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Figure I-5 Map of test fishing loca
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Appendix J The Hydroacoustics progr
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An SEF project was secured in 2007
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Conservation action Comments Partne
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Table K-2 Summary of actions to rec
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Table L-1 Catch and escapement of s
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Table L-3 Performance criteria of p
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Ratio of annual return to the avera
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Appendix M Reviewer comments on the
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Request #5: Sockeye allocations by
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utility of pre-season forecasts. Pr
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3. Are there additional quantitativ
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made via tagging and experimentatio
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Page 60: The authors make extensive
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ensure the reader does not assume t
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The reported excerpts from Bradford
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(budgets, legal issues, pseudo-cons
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REVIEW 3/3Reviewer Name: Dr Sean Co
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season forecasts that eventually co
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allocation shows "No agreement", an
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size.Figures showing errors for pre
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Goals can easily generate confusion
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Total rows from all these tables be
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Exploitation Rate100%90%80%70%60%50
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Exploitation RateEarly Stuart90%80%
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