Fraser River Sockeye Fisheries and Fisheries Management - Cohen ...

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2008 the escapement estimate was 340 compared to the minimum target level of 500 inany year. Objective 2 calls for observed increase in escapement for at least three of fourconsecutive years; however, escapements in 2008 and 2009 were lower than thoseobserved four years earlier in 2004 and 2005. Cultus sockeye have not recovered to alevel of abundance sufficient for COSEWIC to consider de-listing this population(Objective 3) and therefore the stock is a long way from achieving Objective 4.It is too early to know whether any of the various conservation efforts will translate intolong-term population gains for the Cultus sockeye stock. For example, although hatcheryreleases are bolstering the number of returning adults, there are serious concerns aboutthe viability of hatchery produced sockeye. The failed 2008 brood was from recruitscomprising >90% hatchery fish. Smolt-to-recruit survival is also a genuine concernbecause current levels are substantially lower than historic levels: 5.8% average for theperiod 1952-1972, 2.6% average for the 1999-2005 broods, down to an average of 1.1%for the past 3 years. Some of the uncertainty associated with hatchery augmentationefforts will be reduced in the next few years, assuming the recovery and assessmentprograms continue. Given the current uncertainty associated with the outcomes ofvarious recovery actions for Cultus sockeye, these actions need to be considered“experimental” (DFO 2010) and thus require ongoing and rigorous monitoring programs.DFO is preparing a scientific review entitled “Status of Cultus Lake sockeye salmon”,which reviews (Bradford et al., in preparation): (1) recent trends in the Cultus sockeyepopulation, with focus on the last two generations, (2) the current status of the populationrelative to CSRT 2009 objectives 1 and 2 and proposed Wild Salmon Policy benchmarks,(3) the efficacy of the major recovery actions such as harvest reductions, captivebroodstock, and predator control, and (4) results of a population viability analysis, whichis a model that predicts possible future trajectories of the population as a function ofvarious combinations of recovery actions and environmental conditions. Bradford et al.conclude their review of Cultus sockeye recovery by saying “future survival rates, shortand long-term effects of the hatchery program, and the potential changes to the CultusLake food web from predator manipulation [are uncertain, thus] the prognosis for theCultus Lake sockeye population remains highly uncertain.” Finally, Bradford et al. finishby highlighting knowledge gaps and recommending direction for future populationrecovery actions, including:1. A thorough monitoring program is necessary to carefully measure the benefits andpossible risks of manipulating the Cultus sockeye population or the biologicalcommunity of Cultus Lake.123
2. The value of the captive breeding program needs to be reviewed. Long termsupplementation may be a viable alternative to a captive program but this willdepend on the relative reproductive success of hatchery fish in the wild.3. In-lake predator control appears to be increasing juvenile sockeye survival;however, the potential negative ramifications of manipulating Cultus Lake’snatural biological community is unknown and warrants further study.4. To ensure the Cultus population persists despite poor smolt-recruit survival, all ofthe current recovery measures (harvest management, predator control, hatcheryproduction) should be continued and managed adaptively.124
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Fraser River Sockeye Fisheriesand F
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. Catch Monitorin
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implement harvest rate ceilings to
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Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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List of TablesTable 1 Annual estima
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List of FiguresFigure 1 Fraser sock
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Figure 21 Estimates of total catch,
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List of AppendicesAppendix A Statem
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used to (1) estimate catch for each
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FISHERIES HARVESTINGOverview of Fis
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Figure 1 Fraser sockeye marine migr
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Table 2 Summary of available inform
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Table 3 provides the annual estimat
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Table 4 Summary of available inform
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season update teleconference meetin
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Catch Estimation MethodsThe procedu
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catch estimates was detected using
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of precision. The overall rating fo
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1998-00 - No agreements with Sto:lo
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initiation of the AFS Agreements in
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Table 12 Comparison of annual socke
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Table 13 Annual estimates of the ha
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Canadian Commercial FisheriesThe pr
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logbook systems. In addition to the
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Table 15 Fraser River sockeye salmo
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Available catch estimates for the r
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Table 17 Summary of available infor
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anged from less than 100 to over 30
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Washington State Recreational Fishe
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equirements have been applied to se
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salmon were biopsied or tagged with
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Stellako-Late Stuart and 531 Adams)
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FISHERIES MANAGEMENTOverview of Pre
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parents of the recruits). Effective
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within the confidence limits. For e
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
Page 76 and 77: Table 20 Pre-season forecast models
Page 78 and 79: different from the straight line),
Page 80 and 81: Prediction ability of ForecastsProp
Page 82 and 83: Stock MAPEReturn Explainedby Foreca
Page 84 and 85: test fisheries are analyzed in-seas
Page 86 and 87: Inputs to the cumulative-normal mod
Page 88 and 89: eginning of the runs, but by mid-ru
Page 90 and 91: Median Absolute Percent Error (1997
Page 92 and 93: variety of hydroacoustic techniques
Page 94 and 95: enefited from improved technologies
Page 96 and 97: Post-season estimates of Escapement
Page 98 and 99: precision achieved was considerably
Page 100 and 101: m 3 /sec during the sockeye run. Fi
Page 102 and 103: Escapement TargetsOur evaluations r
Page 104 and 105: 20% of the average of the 4-year se
Page 106 and 107: Table 24 Low escapement benchmarks
Page 108 and 109: Table 25 Comparison of post-season
Page 110 and 111: fisheries have been permitted to ta
Page 112 and 113: sub-dominant cycle years (e.g., 200
Page 114 and 115: SummaryLow Escapement Benchmarks (L
Page 116 and 117: Extent of OverharvestingThe estimat
Page 118 and 119: 2,000,0001,800,000Early StuartCatch
Page 120 and 121: Cultus Lake Sockeye Recovery Effort
Page 122 and 123: Figure 23 Number of adult sockeye e
Page 124 and 125: Recovery ObjectivesIn anticipation
Page 128 and 129: BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA SOCKEYE FISHERY
Page 130 and 131: accurate, precise, and timely, (2)
Page 132 and 133: The Bay is subjected to large tidal
Page 134 and 135: activity (Bocking and Peterman 1988
Page 136 and 137: % of total run45%40%35%30%25%20%15%
Page 138 and 139: Harvest estimation methodsTotal har
Page 140 and 141: Millions of sockeyeYearFigure 27 Hi
Page 142 and 143: management structure complements th
Page 144 and 145: 1.5Togiak4.03.5NushagakMillions of
Page 146 and 147: Millions of sockeye7.06.05.04.03.02
Page 148 and 149: logical given the dynamics of the r
Page 150 and 151: 1.61.4Number of fish (millions)1.21
Page 152 and 153: Pre-season forecastsAs noted above,
Page 154 and 155: 8.0y = 0.79x + 1.59R² = 0.417.8Log
Page 156 and 157: 12010080MAPE60402001971-1980 1981-1
Page 158 and 159: Median percent error (MPE)3020100-1
Page 160 and 161: Table 28 Average age composition of
Page 162 and 163: dampeners to reduce surface turbule
Page 164 and 165: current year’s run is accounted f
Page 166 and 167: and 1999 Revised Annexes. This inte
Page 168 and 169: Bristol Bay was in 1997 when there
Page 170 and 171: upon by managers to determine when
Page 172 and 173: STATE OF THE SCIENCECatch Monitorin
Page 174 and 175: 2006) due to concerns regarding the
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RECOMMENDATIONS1. DFO needs to ensu
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LITERATURE CITEDAdkison, M.D. and R
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Beacham, T.D., M. Lapointe, J.R. Ca
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CSAS. 2007 Pre-season run size fore
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Evans, D.G., J.B. Browning and B.G.
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Hardie, D.C., D.A. Nagtegaal, K. He
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Pacific Salmon Commission. 1998. Re
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Robichaud, D., J.J. Smith, K. K. En
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Valderrama, D. and J.L. Anderson. 2
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Appendix A Statement of Work.Cohen
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All sectors3.7 The Contractor will
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“State of the Science”. Comment
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3.3 The Contractor will review and
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Appendix BList of requests to DFO b
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DFO Request 15: Recent CSAS documen
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Item Description DateRequestedReque
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Appendix CFirst Nation catch monito
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Table C-1 Summary of information re
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Table C-2 Weekly catch monitoring e
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Table D-1 Summary of information re
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community of Port Renfrew. The area
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IPrecision ( + % of the estimate)10
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Table E-2 Annual Strait of Georgia
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Table E-4 Annual Johnstone Strait e
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Table E-6 Lower Fraser River recrea
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0 would mean that the forecast does
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the general ups and downs of the ob
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Appendix G Graphical representation
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Early Stuart Timing GroupEarly Stua
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Summer-run Timing GroupSummer run7.
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Fraser River Indicator Stocks (list
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Appendix H Pre-season forecast: sum
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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Appendix I Methods of In-season Sto
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Marine Gillnet Test FisheriesThe gi
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Expansion line (x1000)9080706050403
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Table I-2 Mean values for purse sei
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Figure I-5 Map of test fishing loca
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Appendix J The Hydroacoustics progr
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An SEF project was secured in 2007
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Conservation action Comments Partne
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Table K-2 Summary of actions to rec
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Table L-1 Catch and escapement of s
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Table L-3 Performance criteria of p
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Ratio of annual return to the avera
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Appendix M Reviewer comments on the
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Request #5: Sockeye allocations by
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utility of pre-season forecasts. Pr
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3. Are there additional quantitativ
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made via tagging and experimentatio
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Page 60: The authors make extensive
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ensure the reader does not assume t
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The reported excerpts from Bradford
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(budgets, legal issues, pseudo-cons
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REVIEW 3/3Reviewer Name: Dr Sean Co
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season forecasts that eventually co
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allocation shows "No agreement", an
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size.Figures showing errors for pre
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Goals can easily generate confusion
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Total rows from all these tables be
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Exploitation Rate100%90%80%70%60%50
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Exploitation RateEarly Stuart90%80%
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