Fraser River Sockeye Fisheries and Fisheries Management - Cohen ...

timing group that could be used in-season to manage fisheries. The LRP and TRP for arun-timing group would be the sum of the values for the component stocks. The totalallowable mortality for each run-timing group should be based on the in-season assessmentof the total return, environmental conditions and status of each stock relative to its LRPand TRP.2. In some cases, the report makes observations that could be re-worded into recommendations.For example, P1L7-11 observes the "limited documentation for DFO catch monitoringprograms…leaves substantial room for improvement…". This could be re-worded to suggest,for instance, what minimal documentation levels are needed for particular assessment andmanagement functions. (One could continue this process of generating specificrecommendations throughout the Executive Summary.)LGL Response: We have modified our first recommendation as follows:1. DFO needs to ensure that all catch monitoring programs (First Nations,commercial, and recreational) have complete documentation and information oncatch and annual survey effort is maintained in easily accessible databases somanagers and decision makers are aware of changes and trends in catch andmonitoring efforts.3. I found Table 20 particularly interesting. Why do forecasting models change every year?One could argue that forecasting models are being chosen at random. Presumably, in a givenyear, the model with the best retrospective performance is chosen, but the data are random andthe past errors are random, so the "best" model will be chosen at random. This makes it hard totake any forecast seriously, not mention the challenges of predicting future forecastingperformance.LGL Response: As indicated in our report, DFO has adopted an approach whereretrospective analyses are used to evaluate the performance of the various forecast modelsand determine the “best performing model” each year. This combined with the addition ofnew models to address issues such as declining trends in productivity and the poorperformance of past models has resulted in more year to year variability in the “bestperforming model” in recent years. This is yet another reason for re-allocating theanalytical effort used to prepare annual forecasts to some other more useful function.4. The two separate issues of (1) escapement goals and (2) fishery operating procedures needs tobe clarified in DFO, especially since management of Fraser River sockeye is going to get morecomplicated, not less, in the future. The terminology alone in the section on Current EscapementM-33