Fraser River Sockeye Fisheries and Fisheries Management - Cohen ...

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within the confidence limits. For example, in 2009 (Figure 6), none of the actual returnsfor the 19 indicator stocks and the four run timing groups fell within the bounds for themiddle 50% of the forecast estimates. This is in contrast to the 2003 (Figure 7) and 1998(Figure 8) forecasts where the actual returns for 13 of the 18 indicator stocks fell withinthe middle 50% bounds for the forecasts each year.67
Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.02.01.02010 Expected Precision of Forecast (25 to 75 percentile)0.0Early StuartBowronFennellGatesNadinaPittRaftScotchSeymourChilkoLate StuartQuesnelStellakoCultusHarrisonLate ShuswapPortageWeaverBirkenheadEarly StuartEarly SummerSummerLate SummerFraser River25% chance return above this valueForecastActual return25% chance return below this valueFigure 5 The 2010 forecasted point estimate (squares). The vertical black linesdepict the upper and lower confidence limits for the forecast predictions(upper 75 th and lower 25 th percentiles). Indicator stocks, beginning at leftfrom Early Stuart to Birkenhead, are pooled into four run timing groups totheir right (shaded area) followed by all Fraser River stocks combined.Official return values for the 2010 run were unavailable at time ofreporting.68
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Fraser River Sockeye Fisheriesand F
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. Catch Monitorin
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implement harvest rate ceilings to
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Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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List of TablesTable 1 Annual estima
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List of FiguresFigure 1 Fraser sock
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Figure 21 Estimates of total catch,
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List of AppendicesAppendix A Statem
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used to (1) estimate catch for each
Page 20 and 21: FISHERIES HARVESTINGOverview of Fis
Page 22 and 23: Figure 1 Fraser sockeye marine migr
Page 24 and 25: Table 2 Summary of available inform
Page 26 and 27: Table 3 provides the annual estimat
Page 28 and 29: Table 4 Summary of available inform
Page 30 and 31: season update teleconference meetin
Page 32 and 33: Catch Estimation MethodsThe procedu
Page 34 and 35: catch estimates was detected using
Page 36 and 37: of precision. The overall rating fo
Page 38 and 39: 1998-00 - No agreements with Sto:lo
Page 40 and 41: initiation of the AFS Agreements in
Page 42 and 43: Table 12 Comparison of annual socke
Page 44 and 45: Table 13 Annual estimates of the ha
Page 46 and 47: Canadian Commercial FisheriesThe pr
Page 48 and 49: logbook systems. In addition to the
Page 50 and 51: Table 15 Fraser River sockeye salmo
Page 52 and 53: Available catch estimates for the r
Page 54 and 55: Table 17 Summary of available infor
Page 56 and 57: anged from less than 100 to over 30
Page 58 and 59: Washington State Recreational Fishe
Page 60 and 61: equirements have been applied to se
Page 62 and 63: salmon were biopsied or tagged with
Page 64 and 65: Stellako-Late Stuart and 531 Adams)
Page 66 and 67: FISHERIES MANAGEMENTOverview of Pre
Page 68 and 69: parents of the recruits). Effective
Page 72 and 73: Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
Page 74 and 75: Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
Page 76 and 77: Table 20 Pre-season forecast models
Page 78 and 79: different from the straight line),
Page 80 and 81: Prediction ability of ForecastsProp
Page 82 and 83: Stock MAPEReturn Explainedby Foreca
Page 84 and 85: test fisheries are analyzed in-seas
Page 86 and 87: Inputs to the cumulative-normal mod
Page 88 and 89: eginning of the runs, but by mid-ru
Page 90 and 91: Median Absolute Percent Error (1997
Page 92 and 93: variety of hydroacoustic techniques
Page 94 and 95: enefited from improved technologies
Page 96 and 97: Post-season estimates of Escapement
Page 98 and 99: precision achieved was considerably
Page 100 and 101: m 3 /sec during the sockeye run. Fi
Page 102 and 103: Escapement TargetsOur evaluations r
Page 104 and 105: 20% of the average of the 4-year se
Page 106 and 107: Table 24 Low escapement benchmarks
Page 108 and 109: Table 25 Comparison of post-season
Page 110 and 111: fisheries have been permitted to ta
Page 112 and 113: sub-dominant cycle years (e.g., 200
Page 114 and 115: SummaryLow Escapement Benchmarks (L
Page 116 and 117: Extent of OverharvestingThe estimat
Page 118 and 119: 2,000,0001,800,000Early StuartCatch
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Cultus Lake Sockeye Recovery Effort
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Figure 23 Number of adult sockeye e
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Recovery ObjectivesIn anticipation
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2008 the escapement estimate was 34
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BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA SOCKEYE FISHERY
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accurate, precise, and timely, (2)
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The Bay is subjected to large tidal
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activity (Bocking and Peterman 1988
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% of total run45%40%35%30%25%20%15%
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Harvest estimation methodsTotal har
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Millions of sockeyeYearFigure 27 Hi
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management structure complements th
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1.5Togiak4.03.5NushagakMillions of
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Millions of sockeye7.06.05.04.03.02
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logical given the dynamics of the r
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1.61.4Number of fish (millions)1.21
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Pre-season forecastsAs noted above,
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8.0y = 0.79x + 1.59R² = 0.417.8Log
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12010080MAPE60402001971-1980 1981-1
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Median percent error (MPE)3020100-1
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Table 28 Average age composition of
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dampeners to reduce surface turbule
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current year’s run is accounted f
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and 1999 Revised Annexes. This inte
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Bristol Bay was in 1997 when there
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upon by managers to determine when
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STATE OF THE SCIENCECatch Monitorin
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2006) due to concerns regarding the
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RECOMMENDATIONS1. DFO needs to ensu
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LITERATURE CITEDAdkison, M.D. and R
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Beacham, T.D., M. Lapointe, J.R. Ca
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CSAS. 2007 Pre-season run size fore
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Evans, D.G., J.B. Browning and B.G.
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Hardie, D.C., D.A. Nagtegaal, K. He
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Pacific Salmon Commission. 1998. Re
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Robichaud, D., J.J. Smith, K. K. En
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Valderrama, D. and J.L. Anderson. 2
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Appendix A Statement of Work.Cohen
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All sectors3.7 The Contractor will
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“State of the Science”. Comment
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3.3 The Contractor will review and
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Appendix BList of requests to DFO b
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DFO Request 15: Recent CSAS documen
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Item Description DateRequestedReque
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Appendix CFirst Nation catch monito
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Table C-1 Summary of information re
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Table C-2 Weekly catch monitoring e
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Table D-1 Summary of information re
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community of Port Renfrew. The area
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IPrecision ( + % of the estimate)10
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Table E-2 Annual Strait of Georgia
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Table E-4 Annual Johnstone Strait e
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Table E-6 Lower Fraser River recrea
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0 would mean that the forecast does
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the general ups and downs of the ob
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Appendix G Graphical representation
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Early Stuart Timing GroupEarly Stua
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Summer-run Timing GroupSummer run7.
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Fraser River Indicator Stocks (list
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Appendix H Pre-season forecast: sum
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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Appendix I Methods of In-season Sto
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Marine Gillnet Test FisheriesThe gi
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Expansion line (x1000)9080706050403
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Table I-2 Mean values for purse sei
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Figure I-5 Map of test fishing loca
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Appendix J The Hydroacoustics progr
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An SEF project was secured in 2007
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Conservation action Comments Partne
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Table K-2 Summary of actions to rec
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Table L-1 Catch and escapement of s
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Table L-3 Performance criteria of p
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Ratio of annual return to the avera
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Appendix M Reviewer comments on the
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Request #5: Sockeye allocations by
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utility of pre-season forecasts. Pr
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3. Are there additional quantitativ
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made via tagging and experimentatio
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Page 60: The authors make extensive
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ensure the reader does not assume t
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The reported excerpts from Bradford
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(budgets, legal issues, pseudo-cons
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REVIEW 3/3Reviewer Name: Dr Sean Co
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season forecasts that eventually co
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allocation shows "No agreement", an
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size.Figures showing errors for pre
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Goals can easily generate confusion
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Total rows from all these tables be
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Exploitation Rate100%90%80%70%60%50
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Exploitation RateEarly Stuart90%80%
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