Fraser River Sockeye Fisheries and Fisheries Management - Cohen ...

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Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.02.01.01998 Expected Precision of Forecast (25 to 75 percentile)0.0Early StuartBowronFennellGatesNadinaPittRaftScotchSeymourChilkoLate StuartQuesnelStellakoCultusHarrison (n/a)Late ShuswapPortageWeaverBirkenheadEarly StuartEarly SummerSummerLate SummerFraser River25% chance return above this valueForecastActual return25% chance return below this valueFigure 8 The 1998 forecasted point estimate (squares) and actual returns(horizontal bars). The vertical black lines depict the upper and lowerconfidence limits for the forecast predictions (upper 75 th and lower 25 thpercentiles). Indicator stocks, beginning at left from Early Stuart toBirkenhead, are pooled into four run timing groups to their right (shadedarea) followed by all Fraser River stocks combined.71
Table 19 List of candidate models and data requirements for Fraser sockeye preseasonforecasts (2006-2010) (adapted from Cass et al. 2006).Data AppliedEscapement& Adult JuvenileNo. Model Name Model Type Model Method Returns Recruitment Estimates Environment1 R1C Naïve2 R2C Naïve3 RAC NaïveSame returns as 4 yearspreviousAverage of returns 4 & 8years previousAverage returns on cycleline4 TAC Naïve Time Series Average Return XXXX5 Power Biological6 Power-cyc Biological7 Ricker Biological8 Ricker-cyc BiologicalPower function combiningall cyclesPower function based on 1cycle lineRicker function combiningall cyclesRicker function based on 1cycle line9 Power-fry Biological X10 Smolt-Jack Biological Bayesian X11 Ricker-disc12 Ricker-peak13Ricker-eiRicker-pi14 Ricker-PDO15 Ricker-KFBiological &EnvironmentalBiological &EnvironmentalBiological &EnvironmentalBiological &EnvironmentalBiological &EnvironmentalMultiple regressionMultiple regressionMultiple regressionMultiple regressionXXXXAverage springFraser DischargePeak spring FraserDischargeAverage springsummerLighthouseSSTWinter PacificDecadal OscillationIndexKalman filter usedto est. Ricker 'a'16 RS1Recruits perspawnerR/S from last generation andeffective females in broodyearX17 RS4yrRecruits perspawnerR/S from last 4 generationsand effective females inbrood yearX18 RS8yrRecruits perspawnerR/S from last 8 generationsand effective females inbrood yearX19 RJ4yrRecruits perspawnerR/S from last 4 generationsand smolts in brood yearX72
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Fraser River Sockeye Fisheriesand F
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. Catch Monitorin
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implement harvest rate ceilings to
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Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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List of TablesTable 1 Annual estima
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List of FiguresFigure 1 Fraser sock
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Figure 21 Estimates of total catch,
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List of AppendicesAppendix A Statem
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used to (1) estimate catch for each
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FISHERIES HARVESTINGOverview of Fis
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Figure 1 Fraser sockeye marine migr
Page 24 and 25: Table 2 Summary of available inform
Page 26 and 27: Table 3 provides the annual estimat
Page 28 and 29: Table 4 Summary of available inform
Page 30 and 31: season update teleconference meetin
Page 32 and 33: Catch Estimation MethodsThe procedu
Page 34 and 35: catch estimates was detected using
Page 36 and 37: of precision. The overall rating fo
Page 38 and 39: 1998-00 - No agreements with Sto:lo
Page 40 and 41: initiation of the AFS Agreements in
Page 42 and 43: Table 12 Comparison of annual socke
Page 44 and 45: Table 13 Annual estimates of the ha
Page 46 and 47: Canadian Commercial FisheriesThe pr
Page 48 and 49: logbook systems. In addition to the
Page 50 and 51: Table 15 Fraser River sockeye salmo
Page 52 and 53: Available catch estimates for the r
Page 54 and 55: Table 17 Summary of available infor
Page 56 and 57: anged from less than 100 to over 30
Page 58 and 59: Washington State Recreational Fishe
Page 60 and 61: equirements have been applied to se
Page 62 and 63: salmon were biopsied or tagged with
Page 64 and 65: Stellako-Late Stuart and 531 Adams)
Page 66 and 67: FISHERIES MANAGEMENTOverview of Pre
Page 68 and 69: parents of the recruits). Effective
Page 70 and 71: within the confidence limits. For e
Page 72 and 73: Ratio of Return to Forecast5.04.03.
Page 76 and 77: Table 20 Pre-season forecast models
Page 78 and 79: different from the straight line),
Page 80 and 81: Prediction ability of ForecastsProp
Page 82 and 83: Stock MAPEReturn Explainedby Foreca
Page 84 and 85: test fisheries are analyzed in-seas
Page 86 and 87: Inputs to the cumulative-normal mod
Page 88 and 89: eginning of the runs, but by mid-ru
Page 90 and 91: Median Absolute Percent Error (1997
Page 92 and 93: variety of hydroacoustic techniques
Page 94 and 95: enefited from improved technologies
Page 96 and 97: Post-season estimates of Escapement
Page 98 and 99: precision achieved was considerably
Page 100 and 101: m 3 /sec during the sockeye run. Fi
Page 102 and 103: Escapement TargetsOur evaluations r
Page 104 and 105: 20% of the average of the 4-year se
Page 106 and 107: Table 24 Low escapement benchmarks
Page 108 and 109: Table 25 Comparison of post-season
Page 110 and 111: fisheries have been permitted to ta
Page 112 and 113: sub-dominant cycle years (e.g., 200
Page 114 and 115: SummaryLow Escapement Benchmarks (L
Page 116 and 117: Extent of OverharvestingThe estimat
Page 118 and 119: 2,000,0001,800,000Early StuartCatch
Page 120 and 121: Cultus Lake Sockeye Recovery Effort
Page 122 and 123: Figure 23 Number of adult sockeye e
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Recovery ObjectivesIn anticipation
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2008 the escapement estimate was 34
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BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA SOCKEYE FISHERY
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accurate, precise, and timely, (2)
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The Bay is subjected to large tidal
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activity (Bocking and Peterman 1988
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% of total run45%40%35%30%25%20%15%
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Harvest estimation methodsTotal har
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Millions of sockeyeYearFigure 27 Hi
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management structure complements th
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1.5Togiak4.03.5NushagakMillions of
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Millions of sockeye7.06.05.04.03.02
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logical given the dynamics of the r
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1.61.4Number of fish (millions)1.21
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Pre-season forecastsAs noted above,
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8.0y = 0.79x + 1.59R² = 0.417.8Log
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12010080MAPE60402001971-1980 1981-1
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Median percent error (MPE)3020100-1
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Table 28 Average age composition of
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dampeners to reduce surface turbule
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current year’s run is accounted f
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and 1999 Revised Annexes. This inte
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Bristol Bay was in 1997 when there
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upon by managers to determine when
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STATE OF THE SCIENCECatch Monitorin
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2006) due to concerns regarding the
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RECOMMENDATIONS1. DFO needs to ensu
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LITERATURE CITEDAdkison, M.D. and R
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Beacham, T.D., M. Lapointe, J.R. Ca
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CSAS. 2007 Pre-season run size fore
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Evans, D.G., J.B. Browning and B.G.
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Hardie, D.C., D.A. Nagtegaal, K. He
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Pacific Salmon Commission. 1998. Re
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Robichaud, D., J.J. Smith, K. K. En
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Valderrama, D. and J.L. Anderson. 2
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Appendix A Statement of Work.Cohen
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All sectors3.7 The Contractor will
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“State of the Science”. Comment
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3.3 The Contractor will review and
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Appendix BList of requests to DFO b
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DFO Request 15: Recent CSAS documen
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Item Description DateRequestedReque
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Appendix CFirst Nation catch monito
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Table C-1 Summary of information re
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Table C-2 Weekly catch monitoring e
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Table D-1 Summary of information re
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community of Port Renfrew. The area
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IPrecision ( + % of the estimate)10
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Table E-2 Annual Strait of Georgia
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Table E-4 Annual Johnstone Strait e
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Table E-6 Lower Fraser River recrea
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0 would mean that the forecast does
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the general ups and downs of the ob
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Appendix G Graphical representation
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Early Stuart Timing GroupEarly Stua
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Summer-run Timing GroupSummer run7.
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Fraser River Indicator Stocks (list
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Appendix H Pre-season forecast: sum
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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ManagementGroup(IndicatorStock)MAPE
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Appendix I Methods of In-season Sto
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Marine Gillnet Test FisheriesThe gi
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Expansion line (x1000)9080706050403
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Table I-2 Mean values for purse sei
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Figure I-5 Map of test fishing loca
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Appendix J The Hydroacoustics progr
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An SEF project was secured in 2007
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Conservation action Comments Partne
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Table K-2 Summary of actions to rec
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Table L-1 Catch and escapement of s
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Table L-3 Performance criteria of p
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Ratio of annual return to the avera
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Appendix M Reviewer comments on the
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Request #5: Sockeye allocations by
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utility of pre-season forecasts. Pr
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3. Are there additional quantitativ
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made via tagging and experimentatio
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Page 60: The authors make extensive
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ensure the reader does not assume t
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The reported excerpts from Bradford
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(budgets, legal issues, pseudo-cons
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REVIEW 3/3Reviewer Name: Dr Sean Co
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season forecasts that eventually co
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allocation shows "No agreement", an
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size.Figures showing errors for pre
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Goals can easily generate confusion
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Total rows from all these tables be
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Exploitation Rate100%90%80%70%60%50
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Exploitation RateEarly Stuart90%80%
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