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Defining CCS Ready: An Approach to An International Definition

Defining CCS Ready: An Approach to An International Definition

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Appendix C: Policy Considerations and Assessments of <strong>CCS</strong> <strong>Ready</strong> EconomicsExhibit C-13: Tabular Results: Sensitivity Case with Lower Natural Gas PricesRetrofit TechnologySimulated Frequency of Retrofit for <strong>CCS</strong> <strong>Ready</strong> OptionsOption 1: Throttle Option 2: ClutchBAU Reference Plant Valve CaseCaseOption 3: OversizedBoiler CaseNo <strong>CCS</strong> Retrofit 39% 26% 20% 1%Retrofit <strong>to</strong> Current <strong>CCS</strong> 0% 5% 11% 52%Retrofit <strong>to</strong> Advanced <strong>CCS</strong> 61% 70% 69% 47%StatisticYear GHGRestrictionsBeginOption Zero: BAU Reference PlantNPV OriginalPlant w/o <strong>CCS</strong>Year <strong>CCS</strong>isAdoptedNPV Overall including <strong>CCS</strong>pub discpriv disc raterateNPV OriginalPlant w/o <strong>CCS</strong>Option 1: Throttle Valve CaseYear <strong>CCS</strong>isAdoptedNPV Overall including <strong>CCS</strong>pub discpriv disc raterateAverage 2020.3 (83,609) 2044.5 (63,512) 842,578 (118,922) 2043.6 (88,184) 860,631Min 2016.0 (459,487) 2037.0 (413,823) 221,217 (494,801) 2035.0 (441,408) 205,690Max 2025.0 351,039 2053.0 351,039 1,409,553 315,726 2053.0 315,726 1,372,894Median 2020.0 (81,576) 2044.0 (66,534) 848,801 (116,890) 2043.0 (92,694) 874,576Stand Dev. 2.8 143,502 4.2 132,957 179,160 143,502 4.8 130,476 182,507StatisticYear GHGRestrictionsBeginNPV OriginalPlant w/o <strong>CCS</strong>Option 2: Clutch CaseYear <strong>CCS</strong>isAdoptedNPV Overall including <strong>CCS</strong>pub discpriv disc raterateNPV OriginalPlant w/o <strong>CCS</strong>Option 3: Oversize CaseYear <strong>CCS</strong>isAdoptedNPV Overall including <strong>CCS</strong>pub discpriv disc raterateAverage 2020.3 (190,410) 2042.3 (151,948) 827,781 (665,193) 2036.8 (573,947) 540,412Min 2016.0 (566,320) 2033.0 (508,309) 142,574 (1,041,072) 2028.0 (959,961) (278,713)Max 2025.0 244,281 2053.0 244,281 1,298,407 (230,546) 2054.0 (230,546) 1,100,087Median 2020.0 (188,335) 2041.0 (155,995) 847,202 (663,161) 2036.0 (573,911) 584,924Stand Dev. 2.8 143,517 5.3 129,461 190,263 143,502 5.1 130,492 250,102Exhibit C-14: Distribution of NPV Results: Sensitivity Casewith Lower Natural Gas Prices (private discount rate)23 February 2010 121

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