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US Government Debt Different - Finance Department - University of ...

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180 United States Sovereign <strong>Debt</strong>: A Thought Experiment On Default And Restructuringa selective default on such obligations and the ability <strong>of</strong> the U.S.to substantially shelter its <strong>of</strong>fshore assets from execution by futurejudgment debtors. If neither <strong>of</strong> those situations could be established,by virtue <strong>of</strong> legal or practical constraints, then bilateral negotiationsmight be the only route forward. However, for this purpose, the restructuringproposals discussed in subpart B need not be airtight as alegal matter. They need only be adequate to present a credible threat<strong>of</strong> a selective default and restructuring so as to push major holders <strong>of</strong>Treasuries to the negotiating table. 16B. Anatomy <strong>of</strong> a U.S. <strong>Debt</strong> Restructuring.This subpart outlines three alternative approaches. One is a selectivedefault initiated by the U.S. in lieu <strong>of</strong> a bilateral or multilateralnegotiated restructuring process. It is combined with unilaterally imposedrestructuring terms that would replace and discharge a portion<strong>of</strong> the Treasury obligations with new non-debt securities (ProsperityShares). A second is a selective default combined with the issuance<strong>of</strong> reduced-value Prosperity Shares on account <strong>of</strong> a portion <strong>of</strong> theTreasury obligations, but without discharging or otherwise affectingthe legal status <strong>of</strong> the U.S. Treasury obligations. The third is an <strong>of</strong>ferto swap Prosperity Shares for Treasuries on a consensual basis. None<strong>of</strong> the alternatives contemplates a selective default based solely on thenationality <strong>of</strong> Treasuries holders. The Treasuries on which a selectivedefault would occur would be determined based instead on broaderobjective classifications. But the structure and logistics could be employedto effect a selective default on any objective basis.1. Alternative 1: New Prosperity Shares in Satisfaction andDischarge <strong>of</strong> <strong>Debt</strong>.The U.S. would issue to all holders <strong>of</strong> record <strong>of</strong> Treasuries in thecommercial book-entry system on the books <strong>of</strong> the Federal ReserveBanks units <strong>of</strong> new Prosperity Shares. One unit <strong>of</strong> Prosperity Shareswould be issued for each $10,000 <strong>of</strong> Treasuries. The Federal ReserveBanks would credit the Prosperity Shares on their books to the ac-16 One participant at the Conference suggested that an actual default on the maturitydate <strong>of</strong> one issue <strong>of</strong> Treasuries should be sufficient to bring the major holders tothe table. Others thought the result <strong>of</strong> that approach would be market chaos.

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