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ContentsvThe ContributorsAcknowledgmentsPREFACEby Anna Gelpernixxxixxiii1 U.S. Government Debt Has AlwaysBeen Different! 1Richard Sylla2 A World Without Treasuries? 13William W. Bratton3 Default and the International Role of theDollar 21Richard J. Herring4 A Macro View of Shadow Banking: Do T-BillShortages Pose a New Triffin Dilemma? 35Zoltan Pozsar5 Origins of the Fiscal Constitution 45Michael W. McConnell6 The 2011 Debt Ceiling Impasse Revisited 55Howell E. Jackson7 A Market for End-of-the-World Insurance?Credit Default Swaps on US GovernmentDebt 69Richard Squire
viContents8 Thoughts on Debt Sustainability:Supply and Demand Keynote Remarks 87Peter R. Fisher9 The Federal Debt:Assessing the Capacity to Pay 101Deborah Lucas10 The Tax Revenue Capacity of theU.S. Economy 113James R. Hines Jr.11 Can the United States AchieveFiscal Sustainability? Will We? 129James Kwak12 Burning the Furniture to Heat the House –The Potential Role of Asset Sales inFunding the Federal Government’sDeficits 151Jim Millstein13 United States Sovereign Debt:A Thought Experiment On Defaultand Restructuring 169Charles W. Mooney, Jr.14 A Comment on Professor Mooney’sThought Experiment:Can U.S. Debt Be Restructured? 237Donald S. Bernstein15 Direct and Indirect U.S.Government Debt 245Steven L. Schwarcz
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Page 9 and 10: viiiContents
Page 12 and 13: The Contributors Anna GelpernAme
Page 14 and 15: The Contributors Howell E. Jacks
Page 16 and 17: The Contributors School, as well
Page 18 and 19: The Contributors Zoltan PozsarIn
Page 20 and 21: The Contributors Richard SyllaNe
Page 22 and 23: xxiAcknowledgmentsWe would like
Page 24 and 25: xxiiiPREFACEThe Law School and t
Page 26 and 27: PREFACE academic circles. A sove
Page 28 and 29: Richard Sylla 11U.S. Government Deb
Page 30 and 31: Richard Syllasigned from office in
Page 32 and 33: Richard Syllalike the United States
Page 34 and 35: Richard SyllaAfter 1815, a generall
Page 36 and 37: Richard Syllapurchase to back their
Page 38 and 39: Richard Syllational debt and reduce
Page 40 and 41: William W. Bratton 132A World Witho
Page 42 and 43: William W. Brattonwould go from a c
Page 44 and 45: William W. Brattonthe system, than
Page 46 and 47: ConclusionWilliam W. Bratton19At th
Page 48 and 49: Richard J. Herring 213Default and t
Page 50 and 51: Richard J. Herringpay is seldom in
Page 52 and 53: Richard J. HerringFigure 2: Archety
Page 54 and 55: Richard J. Herring27Figure 4: The R
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Richard J. Herring29Figure 6: Deman
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Richard J. HerringGovernment bonds
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Richard J. HerringDuring August 201
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Zoltan Pozsar 354A Macro View of Sh
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Zoltan Pozsartions, forming an inte
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Zoltan Pozsarfunding for safe, shor
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Zoltan Pozsarfor the reduction in t
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Zoltan PozsarWhile increased rollov
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Michael W. McConnell 455Origins of
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Michael W. McConnellAlthough the Co
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Michael W. McConnellvene? Who would
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Michael W. McConnell(Social Securit
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ConclusionMichael W. McConnell53Whe
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Howell E. Jackson 556The 2011 Debt
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Howell E. Jacksonloss in liquidity.
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Howell E. Jacksonand provides resou
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Howell E. JacksonWhile assertions o
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Howell E. Jacksonof those payments.
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Howell E. Jacksonwhich payments to
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Concluding ThoughtsHowell E. Jackso
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Richard Squire 697A Market for End-
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Richard SquireSo far, there is litt
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Richard Squirethat the reference en
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Richard SquireIn fact, the gross no
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Richard Squireto only 22.6%. Thus i
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Richard Squirewill default. An econ
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Richard Squireannounced that in liq
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Richard SquireCDS on USA and Correl
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Richard Squiremean, however, that t
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Peter R. Fisher 878Thoughts on Debt
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Peter R. Fishernot really an insura
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Peter R. FisherU.K. prospered great
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Peter R. FisherSources of income be
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Peter R. Fisherlead to greater comp
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Peter R. FisherCentral bank mytholo
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Peter R. Fisherboth sides of their
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Deborah Lucas 1019The Federal Debt:
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Deborah LucasProjected Size of Defi
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Deborah Lucasrevenues. In fact, man
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Deborah Lucasly from the global des
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Deborah Lucas109Figure 2: Primary S
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Deborah Lucas111Figure 4: Medicare
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James R. Hines Jr 11310The Tax Reve
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James R. Hines Jrrevenue rely on ex
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James R. Hines JrStates is the lone
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James R. Hines Jr119Table 3: Social
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James R. Hines Jrtapped federal tax
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James R. Hines Jrer economic costs
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James R. Hines Jrtries, and consequ
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James R. Hines Jrtries from 1999 to
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James Kwak 12911Can the United Stat
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James Kwakone hundred years. 6 At t
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James Kwakthe Royal Navy had over o
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James Kwak135Figure 1: National Deb
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James Kwaka real growth rate of 2.2
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James Kwakkeep the national debt at
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James KwakRepublicans have seized o
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James Kwakreduction package. 45 Fur
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James KwakThe bottom line is that f
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James Kwakprovisions, including hea
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James KwakDespite these political c
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Jim Millstein 15112Burning the Furn
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Jim Millsteinits spending and tax c
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Jim MillsteinWhile safe-haven flows
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Jim Millsteinon reserve balances wi
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Jim Millsteinfull list of options i
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Jim Millsteinfundamental disagreeme
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Jim MillsteinHowever, other things
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Jim Millsteinwould likely command a
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Jim MillsteinThere will inevitably
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Charles W. Mooney, Jr 16913United S
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Charles W. Mooney, JrSecond, would
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrticipants, did
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Charles W. Mooney, JrThe extent and
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Charles W. Mooney, Jr“Treasury Di
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrin subpart B i
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrcount holders
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrdefault. If an
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrcould be achie
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrconsider adopt
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Charles W. Mooney, Jror gold coin.
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrpre-1933 legis
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrbegin by notin
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrformity requir
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrnation based o
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrthe Treasury d
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Charles W. Mooney, JrUnder any cohe
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrcontext of ban
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrcans in Congre
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Charles W. Mooney, JrThe government
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Charles W. Mooney, JrIf Wade’s sp
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Charles W. Mooney, Jring in Perry,
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Charles W. Mooney, JrThere would be
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Charles W. Mooney, JrBut that concl
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Charles W. Mooney, JrCourt of Feder
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrtem. 135 This
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Charles W. Mooney, Jr. b. The Race
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Charles W. Mooney, JrBut, of course
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrhave adopted r
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrtions Conventi
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrthe other hand
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Charles W. Mooney, JrIf the U.S. co
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrpursue massive
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Charles W. Mooney, Jrof multination
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Donald S. Bernstein 23714A Comment
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Donald S. Bernsteinis what most ban
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Donald S. BernsteinAmendment, simpl
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Donald S. Bernsteinfallout of alloc
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Steven L. Schwarcz 24515Direct and
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Steven L. Schwarczin Perry held tha
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Steven L. Schwarczwould apply to fe
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Steven L. Schwarczunder Section 13(
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Steven L. SchwarczD. Assessing the
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255AppendixThe 2011 Debt Limit Impa
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Jeremy Kreisberg & Kelley O’Mara
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