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Table 2. Predicted 6-Month Risk of AIDS according to Age and Current CD4 Cell Count and Viral Load, Based on a Poisson
Regression Model
Age 25 years
Predicted Risk (%) at Current CD4 Cell Count (x 10 6 cells/L) *
Viral Load (copies/ml) 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
3,000 6.8 3.7 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3
10,000 9.6 5.3 3.4 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4
30,000 13.3 7.4 4.7 3.2 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6
100,000 18.6 10.6 6.7 4.6 3.2 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.8
300,000 25.1 14.5 9.3 6.3 4.5 3.3 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.2
Age 35 years
3,000 8.5 4.7 3.0 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4
10,000 12.1 6.7 4.3 2.9 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5
30,000 16.6 9.3 5.9 4.0 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7
100,000 23.1 13.2 8.5 5.8 4.1 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.1
300,000 30.8 18 11.7 8.0 5.7 4.2 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.5
Age 45 years
3,000 10.7 5.9 3.7 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5
10,000 15.1 8.5 5.4 3.6 2.6 1.9 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7
30,000 20.6 11.7 7.5 5.1 3.6 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.9
100,000 28.4 16.5 10.6 7.3 5.2 3.8 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.3
300,000 37.4 22.4 14.6 10.1 7.2 5.3 4.0 3.1 2.4 1.9
Age 55 years
3,000 13.4 7.5 4.7 3.2 2.3 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6
10,000 18.8 10.7 6.8 4.6 3.3 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.8
30,000 25.4 14.6 9.4 6.4 4.6 3.3 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.2
100,000 34.6 20.5 13.3 9.2 6.5 4.8 3.6 2.8 2.2 1.7
300,000 44.8 27.5 18.2 12.6 9.1 6.7 5.0 3.9 3.0 2.4
* Shading distinguishes risk: 20%, darkest gray.
Reprinted with permission from Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins [Phillips A; CASCADE Collaboration. Short-term risk of AIDS according to current CD4 cell count and viral load in antiretroviral drug-naive individuals and
those treated in the monotherapy era. AIDS 2004; 18 (1):51-8]. Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins online: http://lww.com
References
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