PROCEEDINGS May 15, 16, 17, 18, 2005 - Casualty Actuarial Society

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578 ARCHITECTURE FOR RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY INSURANCE RATEMAKINGEXHIBIT 17ContinuedCalculation of Adjusted Base PremiumOp. Value $ Impact Description¡ (0.05) (24) Claim Free Credit (to Total)¡ (0.11) (35) Protective Device Credit (to AOP + Fire)+ 0 0 Seasonal Occupancy modifier (to AOP + Fire + Liab)¡ 0 0 Wind Exclusion Credit (to Hurr + Other Wind)+ 0 0 Screen Enclosure Charge (flat charge)¡ (0.04) (13) Age of Home Credit (to AOP + Fire)–HO+ 0 0 Multi-Unit or Town/Rowhouse mod (to AOP + Fire)–HO+ 0.16 73 Replacement Cost Provisions mod (to non-Liab)–HO¡ 0 0 Law/Ordinance Exclusion Credit (to non-Liab)–HO¡ 0 0 In-Construction Credit (to Total)–HO¡ (0.06) (8) BCEGS Credit (to Hurr + Other Wind)–HO+=¡ 0 0 Loss Settlement Options mod (to non-Liab)–MH¡ 0 0 ANSI/ASCE Credit (to non-Liab)–MH= 481 Adjusted Base Premium+ 55 Expense Fee= 536 Total Policy Premium
ESTIMATING THE WORKERS COMPENSATION TAILRICHARD E. SHERMAN AND GORDON F. DISSAbstractThe workers compensation tail largely consists ofthe medical component of permanent disability claims(MPD). Yet the nature of MPD payments is not widelyunderstood and is counter to that presumed in commonactuarial methods.This paper presents an analysis of medical paymentsbased on 160,000 permanently disabled claimants over77 accident years. It introduces a method for utilizingincremental payment data prior to the standard triangleto extend development factors beyond the end of thetriangle (for any casualty line).A model is presented that explicitly reflects the opposingeffects of medical cost escalation and the forceof mortality. It demonstrates that² paid loss development factors (PLDFs) tend to increaseover many successive, “mature” years of development,² PLDFs and tails will trend upward over time dueto expected future improvement in mortality–that is,people will be living longer, and² average medical costs for elderly claimants are substantiallyhigher than for younger claimants.The paper also demonstrates that case reserves basedon inflating payments until the expected year of deathare significantly less than the expected value of suchreserves. A method is introduced for realistically simulatingthe high expected value and variability of MPDreserves. It is based on a Markov chain model of annualpayments on individual claims.579
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VOLUME XCII NUMBERS 176 and 177PROC
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FOREWORDActuarial science originate
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2005 PROCEEDINGSCONTENTS OF VOLUME
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2005 PROCEEDINGSCONTENTS OF VOLUME
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Editorial Committee, Proceedings Ed
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2 AN EXAMINATION OF THE INFLUENCE O
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10 AN EXAMINATION OF THE INFLUENCE
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AN EXAMINATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELSRODNEY KRE
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 33There a
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 35where f
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 37where a
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 39Various
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 55We also
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 59APPENDI
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DISCUSSION OF A PAPER PRESENTED AT
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 63known t
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 65to be a
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 67implies
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 69bad res
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 71a maxim
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 734. INTE
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 79REFEREN
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 81EXHIBIT
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 83
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WHY LARGER RISKS HAVE SMALLER INSUR
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS 151ateship a
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS 153You shoul
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS 155strength
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MINUTES OF THE 2005 CAS SPRING MEET
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MINUTES OF THE 2005 SPRING MEETING
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Volume XCII, Part 2 No. 177PROCEEDI
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MODELING FINANCIAL SCENARIOS 179Bab
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MODELING FINANCIAL SCENARIOS 213FIG
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MODELING FINANCIAL SCENARIOS 237[30
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WHEN CAN ACCIDENT YEARS BE REGARDED
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THE APPLICATION OF FUNDAMENTAL VALU
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A NEW METHOD OF ESTIMATING LOSS RES
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ARCHITECTURE FOR RESIDENTIAL PROPER
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INCORPORATION OF FIXED EXPENSESGEOF
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INCORPORATION OF FIXED EXPENSES 681
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DISCUSSION OF PAPER PUBLISHED INVOL
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APPLICATION OF THE OPTION MARKET PA
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THE “MODIFIED BORNHUETTER-FERGUSO
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS-NOVEMBER 14,
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS 743Now to an
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PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS-NOVEMBER 14, 2
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PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS 747use of thes
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PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS 749just lookin
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PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS 751The quantif
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PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS 753me keep my
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MINUTES OF THE 2005 CAS ANNUAL MEET
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MINUTES OF THE 2005 ANNUAL MEETING
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REPORT OF THE VICE PRESIDENT—ADMI
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REPORT OF THE VICE PRESIDENT-ADMINI
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2005 EXAMINATIONS—SUCCESSFUL CAND
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OBITUARIESROBERT GRANT ESPIECLYDE H
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OBITUARIES 825SIDNEY M. HAMMER1931
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OBITUARIES 827J. GARY LaROSE1947—
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OBITUARIES 829PAUL J. SCHEEL SR.193
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OBITUARIES 831LEO M. STANKUSCirca 1
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INDEX TO VOLUME XCIIPage2005 EXAMIN
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835GRAVES, CLYDE H.INDEX—CONTINUE
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837INDEX—CONTINUEDREPORT OF THE V
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PROCEEDINGS May 15, 16, 17, 18, 2005 - Casualty Actuarial Society

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