PROCEEDINGS May 15, 16, 17, 18, 2005 - Casualty Actuarial Society

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642 ESTIMATING THE WORKERS COMPENSATION TAILclaimants may have been quite young when injured, and becausethe total expected future payment for workers injured ata young age is dramatically higher than for those injured at anolder age. An appreciation for this can be gained by reviewingeither Columns (B) or (C) of Table 8.2. For example, the totalexpected future payout for a female who is 20 at the accidentdate is $16.7 million, while it is only $3.0 million if she is 40.The Markov chain method presented in this section is basedon the common assumption that the current level incrementalseverities of each claimant remain constant regardless of the ageof the claimant during each future year. Clearly, if the tendencyof incremental medical severities to increase with age were incorporatedinto this method, future medical payments for eachtrial of the simulation would be higher.10. CONCLUDING REMARKSIn this paper we have seen that common actuarial methodswill tend to underestimate the true MPD loss reserve. This isalso the case for typical methods of estimating MPD reservesat higher confidence levels based on commonly used size-oflossdistributions. The need to develop and apply new methodsthat directly reflect the characteristics of MPD payments issubstantial.
ESTIMATING THE WORKERS COMPENSATION TAIL 643REFERENCES[1] Adler, M., and C. D. Kline Jr., “Evaluating Bodily InjuryLiabilities Using a Claims Closure Model,” Evaluating InsuranceCompany Liabilities, Casualty Actuarial Society DiscussionPaper Program, 1988, pp. 1—66.[2] Blumsohn, Gary, “Levels of Determinism in Workers’ CompensationReinsurance Commutations,” PCAS LXXXVI,1999, pp. 1—79.[3] Fisher, W. H., and J. T. Lange, “Loss Reserve Testing: AReport Year Approach,” PCAS LX, 1973, pp. 189—207.[4] Gillam, William R., “Injured Worker Mortality,” CasualtyActuarial Society Forum, Winter 1991, pp. 89—114.[5] Sherman, Richard E., “Extrapolating, Smoothing, and InterpolatingDevelopment Factors,” PCAS LXXI, 1984, pp. 122—155.[6] Venter, Gary G., Barbara Schill, and Jack Barnett, “Reviewof Report of Committee on Mortality for Disabled Lives,”Casualty Actuarial Society Forum, Winter 1991, pp. 115—137.[7] Workers’ Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau of CaliforniaBulletin No. 2003-24, p. 1—38.
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VOLUME XCII NUMBERS 176 and 177PROC
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FOREWORDActuarial science originate
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2005 PROCEEDINGSCONTENTS OF VOLUME
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2005 PROCEEDINGSCONTENTS OF VOLUME
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Editorial Committee, Proceedings Ed
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2 AN EXAMINATION OF THE INFLUENCE O
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AN EXAMINATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELSRODNEY KRE
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 59APPENDI
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DISCUSSION OF A PAPER PRESENTED AT
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 79REFEREN
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 81EXHIBIT
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS 151ateship a
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS 153You shoul
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS 155strength
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MINUTES OF THE 2005 CAS SPRING MEET
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MINUTES OF THE 2005 SPRING MEETING
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Volume XCII, Part 2 No. 177PROCEEDI
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MODELING FINANCIAL SCENARIOS 179Bab
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MODELING FINANCIAL SCENARIOS 209TAB
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WHEN CAN ACCIDENT YEARS BE REGARDED
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A NEW METHOD OF ESTIMATING LOSS RES
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ARCHITECTURE FOR RESIDENTIAL PROPER
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DISCUSSION OF PAPER PUBLISHED INVOL
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APPLICATION OF THE OPTION MARKET PA
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THE “MODIFIED BORNHUETTER-FERGUSO
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS-NOVEMBER 14,
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS 743Now to an
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PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS-NOVEMBER 14, 2
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MINUTES OF THE 2005 CAS ANNUAL MEET
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MINUTES OF THE 2005 ANNUAL MEETING
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REPORT OF THE VICE PRESIDENT-ADMINI
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2005 EXAMINATIONS—SUCCESSFUL CAND
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OBITUARIESROBERT GRANT ESPIECLYDE H
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OBITUARIES 825SIDNEY M. HAMMER1931
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OBITUARIES 827J. GARY LaROSE1947—
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OBITUARIES 829PAUL J. SCHEEL SR.193
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OBITUARIES 831LEO M. STANKUSCirca 1
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INDEX TO VOLUME XCIIPage2005 EXAMIN
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835GRAVES, CLYDE H.INDEX—CONTINUE
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837INDEX—CONTINUEDREPORT OF THE V
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PROCEEDINGS May 15, 16, 17, 18, 2005 - Casualty Actuarial Society

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