PROCEEDINGS May 15, 16, 17, 18, 2005 - Casualty Actuarial Society

592 ESTIMATING THE WORKERS COMPENSATION TAILFIGURE 1.3Washington State FundMedical TailSolid points = actual data; shaded = fitted data.would be expected on the basis of earlier DYs, because of theincreasing infirmities of surviving claimants and their spouses.The adverse pattern evident in Figure 1.2 is also quite pronouncedin the medical PLDFs for the Washington State Fund,as shown in Figure 1.3. This graph was provided by WilliamVasek, FCAS.Table 1.3 provides a direct comparison of the tail factors (toultimate) at 15 years produced by various extrapolation techniqueswith that based on SAIF’s historical experience.Clearly, the extrapolated MPD loss reserves at 15 years ofmaturity are only a small fraction of the MPD reserve indicatedby SAIF’s development history.