PROCEEDINGS May 15, 16, 17, 18, 2005 - Casualty Actuarial Society

602 ESTIMATING THE WORKERS COMPENSATION TAILTABLE 2.5Indicated Loss Reserve at Different Maturities(dollars in millions)Other Workers MPD Reserve as a PercentageMaturity MPD Compensation of Total Workers(Years) Reserve Reserve Compensation Reserve10 $29.8 $10.4 7415 28.5 9.5 7525 25.7 5.7 8235 20.2 2.5 89TABLE 2.6WCIRB’s Indicated California Paid Tail FactorsMaturity Medical Indemnity Total Workers Compensation(Years) Tail Tail Loss Tail10 1.276 1.064 1.16815 1.217 1.041 1.12925 1.143 1.025 1.086Source: WCIRB Bulletin No. 2003-24, pp. 8—9 [7].The MPD reserve makes up an increasing percentage of thetotal WC loss reserve at later maturities.It should be borne in mind that Tables 2.4 and 2.5 provideMPD and other workers compensation indications specific toSAIF’s loss experience in the state of Oregon, and not that ofworkers compensation insurers in general.Table 2.6 provides a comparison of indicated tails at differentmaturities for California workers compensation experience,as projected by the Workers Compensation Insurance RatingBureau (WCIRB).Although the California tails are consistently smaller thanSAIF’s, it is again true that the medical tails are decidedly greater