PROCEEDINGS May 15, 16, 17, 18, 2005 - Casualty Actuarial Society

ESTIMATING THE WORKERS COMPENSATION TAIL 675TABLE D.4Calendar Year of Payments and Applicable MortalityTable for Each Accident Year and Development YearYear of DevelopmentAY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91996 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041997 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051998 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20061999 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20072000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082001 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010TABLE D.5Comparison of the Estimation of the Number of LivingClaimants with Age-at-Injury of 50 for Accident Year2002 at Successive Year-Ends Under the Static andTrended Mortality MethodsStatic Mortality MethodCalendar Year2031 2032 2033 2034 2035Number of Surviving Claimants 100.00 93.63 87.05 80.30 73.42CY of Mortality Table 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000Survival Probability .93633 .92972 .92242 .91439 .90562Trended Mortality MethodCalendar Year2031 2032 2033 2034 2035Number of Surviving Claimants 100.00 95.12 90.05 84.79 79.30CY of Mortality Table 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035Survival Probability .95121 .94671 .94152 .93526 .92769