PROCEEDINGS May 15, 16, 17, 18, 2005 - Casualty Actuarial Society

662 ESTIMATING THE WORKERS COMPENSATION TAILTABLE C.2.2Number of Surviving Male Claimants at the Beginningof Various Development Years for Accident Year 2002Age-at- Number of Surviving Male Claimants at the Beginning of Development YearInjury 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 40 50 60 70 8016—29 30.7 30.5 30.2 29.9 29.4 28.8 27.9 24.6 18.0 8.7 1.5 0.030—39 78.9 78.2 77.0 75.4 73.0 69.5 64.3 47.3 22.8 4.0 0.1 0.040—49 183.4 180.2 174.6 166.5 154.4 137.0 114.3 56.2 10.2 0.3 0.0 0.050—59 321.3 309.0 286.9 255.0 213.4 162.7 106.1 19.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.060+ 135.7 124.2 105.6 83.2 58.0 33.0 13.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0TOTAL 750.0 722.1 674.4 609.9 528.1 431.0 326.4 148.3 51.7 13.0 1.6 0.0SurvivalProbability ¤ 96.3 93.4 90.4 86.6 81.6 75.7 45.4 34.8 25.1 12.3 2.6¤ In %.TABLE C.2.3Indicated Male Claimant Survival ProbabilitiesAge-at-Beginning of Development YearInjury 5 10 15 20 25 30 40 50 60 70 8016—29 99.4% 99.2% 98.9% 98.5% 97.8% 96.9% 88.1% 73.4% 48.0% 17.0% 2.8%30—39 99.1% 98.5% 97.8% 96.9% 95.2% 92.5% 73.5% 48.2% 17.5% 3.0% 0.2%40—49 98.2% 96.9% 95.4% 92.7% 88.7% 83.5% 49.1% 18.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0%50—59 96.2% 92.8% 88.9% 83.7% 76.3% 65.2% 18.6% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0%60+ 91.6% 85.0% 78.8% 69.7% 56.9% 41.8% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0%Table C.2.3 displays the survival probabilities for eachage-at-injury grouping during each grouping of developmentyears.Given that survival probabilities vary significantly for differentage-at-injury groups, it is clear that the group survival probabilitieswill be highly sensitive to the distribution of claimants byage-at-injury. The greater the proportion of younger claimants,the bigger the MPD tail.