PROCEEDINGS May 15, 16, 17, 18, 2005 - Casualty Actuarial Society

ESTIMATING THE WORKERS COMPENSATION TAIL 583Organization of PaperThis paper is divided into 10 sections:1. Summary and Introduction2. Using Prior Incremental Paid Data to Extend the PLDFTriangle3. Incorporating the Static Mortality Model into the IncrementalPaid to Prior Open Claim Method4. Mortality Improvement5. The Trended Mortality Model6. A Comparison of Indicated Tail Factors7. Sensitivity Considerations8. Estimating the Expected Value of MPD Reserves9. Estimating the Variability of the MPD Reserve with aMarkov Chain Simulation10. Concluding RemarksThe paper also includes five appendices:A. The Mueller Incremental Tail MethodB. Historical PLDFs for All Other Workers CompensationC. Incorporating the Static Mortality Model into the IncrementalPaid to Prior Open Claim MethodD. Incorporating the Trended Mortality Model into the IncrementalPaid to Prior Open Claim MethodE. Quantifying the Elder Care Cost Bulge