PROCEEDINGS May 15, 16, 17, 18, 2005 - Casualty Actuarial Society

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674 ESTIMATING THE WORKERS COMPENSATION TAILTABLE D.2Sample One-Year l(x) ValuesCalendar YearAge 1970 1980 1990 2000 2020 2040 206020 .99825 .99844 .99870 .99890 .99909 .99922 .9993435 .99761 .99813 .99783 .99828 .99846 .99870 .9989050 .99139 .99315 .99444 .99504 .99603 .9967 .9972265 .97039 .97476 .97794 .98062 .98385 .98629 .9881880 .90614 .91692 .92396 .92972 .94071 .95024 .95739TABLE D.3Shifted l(x) Array: AgeYear of DevelopmentAge at Injury 1 2 3 4 5 6 720 21 22 23 24 25 26 2721 22 23 24 25 26 27 2822 23 24 25 26 27 28 2923 24 25 26 27 28 29 3024 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Table D.5 provides a side-by-side comparison of parallel calculationsof the expected number of surviving claimants at theend of each calendar year for the static and trended mortalitymethods. The example presented is for claimants who were 50years old when they were injured (during AY 2002).In Table D.5 we started with the same number of survivingclaimants at the beginning of CY 2031 (100.00). Nevertheless,at the beginning of CY 2035, we would be expecting 73.42 suchclaimants to still be alive using a 2000 mortality table while79.30 claimants would be alive using a series of mortality tablescorresponding to CYs 2031 through 2034. In this example, wewould be expecting 8% more claimants to still be alive at the
ESTIMATING THE WORKERS COMPENSATION TAIL 675TABLE D.4Calendar Year of Payments and Applicable MortalityTable for Each Accident Year and Development YearYear of DevelopmentAY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91996 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041997 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051998 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20061999 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20072000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082001 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010TABLE D.5Comparison of the Estimation of the Number of LivingClaimants with Age-at-Injury of 50 for Accident Year2002 at Successive Year-Ends Under the Static andTrended Mortality MethodsStatic Mortality MethodCalendar Year2031 2032 2033 2034 2035Number of Surviving Claimants 100.00 93.63 87.05 80.30 73.42CY of Mortality Table 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000Survival Probability .93633 .92972 .92242 .91439 .90562Trended Mortality MethodCalendar Year2031 2032 2033 2034 2035Number of Surviving Claimants 100.00 95.12 90.05 84.79 79.30CY of Mortality Table 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035Survival Probability .95121 .94671 .94152 .93526 .92769
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VOLUME XCII NUMBERS 176 and 177PROC
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FOREWORDActuarial science originate
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2005 PROCEEDINGSCONTENTS OF VOLUME
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2005 PROCEEDINGSCONTENTS OF VOLUME
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Editorial Committee, Proceedings Ed
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2 AN EXAMINATION OF THE INFLUENCE O
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10 AN EXAMINATION OF THE INFLUENCE
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AN EXAMINATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELSRODNEY KRE
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 33There a
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 39Various
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 59APPENDI
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DISCUSSION OF A PAPER PRESENTED AT
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 63known t
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 79REFEREN
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 81EXHIBIT
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RISKINESS LEVERAGE MODELS 83
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WHY LARGER RISKS HAVE SMALLER INSUR
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS 151ateship a
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS 153You shoul
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS 155strength
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MINUTES OF THE 2005 CAS SPRING MEET
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MINUTES OF THE 2005 SPRING MEETING
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Volume XCII, Part 2 No. 177PROCEEDI
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MODELING FINANCIAL SCENARIOS 179Bab
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WHEN CAN ACCIDENT YEARS BE REGARDED
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A NEW METHOD OF ESTIMATING LOSS RES
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ARCHITECTURE FOR RESIDENTIAL PROPER
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ESTIMATING THE WORKERS COMPENSATION
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THE “MODIFIED BORNHUETTER-FERGUSO
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS-NOVEMBER 14,
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ADDRESS TO NEW MEMBERS 743Now to an
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PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS-NOVEMBER 14, 2
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MINUTES OF THE 2005 CAS ANNUAL MEET
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MINUTES OF THE 2005 ANNUAL MEETING
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2005 EXAMINATIONS—SUCCESSFUL CAND
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OBITUARIESROBERT GRANT ESPIECLYDE H
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OBITUARIES 825SIDNEY M. HAMMER1931
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OBITUARIES 827J. GARY LaROSE1947—
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OBITUARIES 829PAUL J. SCHEEL SR.193
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OBITUARIES 831LEO M. STANKUSCirca 1
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INDEX TO VOLUME XCIIPage2005 EXAMIN
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835GRAVES, CLYDE H.INDEX—CONTINUE
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837INDEX—CONTINUEDREPORT OF THE V
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PROCEEDINGS May 15, 16, 17, 18, 2005 - Casualty Actuarial Society

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