World Disasters Report 2010 - International Federation of Red Cross ...

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Box 6.1 Key organizations and concepts in climate change The growing policy focus on climate change has led to the development of new institutions and the use of new terminology, some of which differs from that used in disaster risk reduction. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the global scientific body established by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It produces Assessment Reports (most recently, the Fourth Assessment Report in 2007) that summarize the state of knowledge on climate change and its potential consequences. Its preparation for the Fifth Assessment Report acknowledges a need for greater attention to adapting cities to climate change and incorporating knowledge and experience on disaster risk reduction. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides the global legislative framework for reducing global warming and responding to climate change and convenes the annual meeting for negotiating emissions reductions and adaptation financing known as the Conference of Parties, or COP (e.g., COP15 in Copenhagen, held in December 2009). 116 Changing patterns of risk : The effects of climate change Greenhouse gases are gases that ab sorb and emit radiation of specific wavelengths, leading to the trapping of heat in the earth’s atmosphere, a process known as the greenhouse effect. Although the process occurs naturally and is important in supporting life on earth, the emission of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane and other gases as a result of human activity has raised the concentration of these gases sufficiently to result in anthropogenic climate change. Adaptation is an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate change in order to reduce its harmful impacts. It may take place before the impacts are felt, may be planned through deliberate policies, or may be spontaneous. It can involve individuals, communities, local governments and nation states. In the climate change arena, mitigation refers to a reduction in atmospheric greenhouse gases, thereby limiting the extent of anthropogenic climate change. It involves both reducing the quantities of emissions and enhancing the ability of natural and human systems to absorb greenhouse gases. � Although the earth’s climate has always been dynamic, over the last 100 years global temperatures have been rising largely as a result of human activities, a process known as anthropogenic climate change. This has been driven by the production of greenhouse gases – and their increasing concentration in the atmosphere – since the industrial revolution. Observed changes include an increase in the global average temperature of 0.740 degrees Celsius, increased ocean temperature and acidity, a decline in snow coverage in the northern hemisphere, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, shifts in the distribution of animal and plant species, and a rise in global average sea levels of 17 centimetres. The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report concluded that likely future changes in climate include warmer and fewer cold days and nights, warmer and
more frequent hot days and nights, increased frequency of warm spells and heatwaves over most land areas, increased frequency of heavy precipitation events over most areas, increased areas affected by drought, increased intense tropical cyclone activity and increased incidence of extreme high sea level. These changes will result in a range of impacts on urban areas, as shown in Table 6.1. Table 6.1 Climate change impacts on urban areas Change in climate Possible impact on urban areas Changes in means Temperature �� Increased energy demands for heating / cooling �� Worsening of air quality �� Exaggerated by urban heat islands Precipitation �� Increased risk of flooding �� Increased risk of landslides �� Distress migration from rural areas as a result of crop failures �� Interruption of food supply networks Sea-level rise �� Coastal flooding �� Reduced income from agriculture and tourism �� Salinization of water sources Changes in extremes Extreme rainfall / tropical cyclones �� More intense flooding �� Higher risk of landslides �� Disruption to livelihoods and city economies �� Damage to homes and businesses Drought �� Water shortages �� Higher food prices �� Disruption of hydroelectricity �� Distress migration from rural areas Heat- or cold-waves �� Short-term increase in energy demands for heating / cooling Abrupt climate change �� Possible significant impacts from rapid and extreme sea-level rise Changes in exposure Population movements �� Movements from stressed rural habitats Biological changes �� Extended vector habitats Source: Adapted from Wilbanks et al. (2007) The extent to which urban centres are vulnerable to these changes in climate is influenced by a variety of factors. The location of cities affects the types of climate hazards to which they are exposed, and whether they are particularly likely to be affected by higher temperatures, changing patterns in precipitation, sea-level rise or more frequent or severe extreme events. However, and more importantly, vulnerability to these impacts is mediated through the social and economic circumstances of the city and its residents, and through the ability of stakeholders and institutions to address the challenges of climate change, sometimes referred to as adaptive capacity. Because of this, cities in low- and middle-income nations are particularly vulnerable to climate change – indeed, the IPCC concluded that “the distribution of impacts and vulnerabilities is World Disasters Report 2010 – Focus on urban risk 117
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The International Federation of Red
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World Disasters Report 2010 Focus o
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Contents International Federation o
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Chapter 6 Urbanization and climate
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Annex 2 Making cities resilient: A
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annually despite commendable effort
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Avoiding the urbanization of disast
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in low-income nations even though a
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The last few decades have also brou
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But only a very small proportion of
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einforce the view that disaster ris
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institutions. Poor people have a lo
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Box 1.2 Can Haiti build back better
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was ‘illegal’, makes reconstruc
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that the needs and priorities of th
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Ravallion, M., Chen, S. and Sangrau
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Urban disaster trends It is well kn
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about 65 per cent of the world’s
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With the exception of the South Asi
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fires and traffic accidents. Buildi
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large cities in low- and middle-inc
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Figure 2.5 Port cities with highest
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expansion is driving risk in many A
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know the phone number) and the fire
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However, the incentive for owners t
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The focus on assets, especially hig
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Munich Re Group. Topics Annual Revi
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Starting over: Community rights and
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on this. However, it is complicated
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all those in the evacuation centre)
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those affected, help them get organ
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disaster events. Governments often
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In urban areas, rebuilding homes an
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Page 71 and 72: However, the scope of the upgrading
Page 73 and 74: Sources and further information Ade
Page 75 and 76: Syukrizal, A., Hafidz, W. and Saute
Page 77 and 78: Urban violence As more people crowd
Page 79 and 80: Drug production and trafficking Sou
Page 81 and 82: Economic development In economic te
Page 83 and 84: Surrounding what happens in homes a
Page 85 and 86: Table 4.1 Measuring inequality Coun
Page 87 and 88: Crisis of legitimacy Many states wi
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Page 91 and 92: At the same time, many of the world
Page 93 and 94: can help, but - as the Organisation
Page 95 and 96: Fukuyama, F. ‘A Quiet Revolution:
Page 97 and 98: Tedesco, L. Latin American States -
Page 99 and 100: Urban risk to health The rapid rise
Page 101 and 102: are malnourished, compared with 16
Page 103 and 104: show that prices of imported rice a
Page 105 and 106: pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria, meas
Page 107 and 108: SARS caused near global panic for a
Page 109 and 110: Urban life affects the way people w
Page 111 and 112: The Red Cross has 90 first-aid stat
Page 113 and 114: private life. Equally significant a
Page 115 and 116: Sources and further information Bur
Page 117 and 118: World Economic Forum. Global Risks
Page 119: Urbanization and climate change ris
Page 123 and 124: impacts of changing precipitation p
Page 125 and 126: feedback have all been used to help
Page 127 and 128: Addressing the causes of climate ch
Page 129 and 130: The Green Party Minister for the En
Page 131 and 132: The inquiry dealt only with technic
Page 133 and 134: Ensuring climate and disaster prepa
Page 135 and 136: negotiations. However, there are no
Page 137 and 138: to peak if the planet is to have a
Page 139 and 140: Sources and further information Ade
Page 141 and 142: Mata, J. L. and Nobre, C. Backgroun
Page 143 and 144: Urban governance and disaster risk
Page 145 and 146: the city government has developed a
Page 147 and 148: For many cities, including those me
Page 149 and 150: many such cities is participatory b
Page 151 and 152: due to El Niño. Many other factors
Page 153 and 154: all provinces by the end of 2009. T
Page 155 and 156: in informal settlements than in the
Page 157 and 158: Conclusion As we pointed out at the
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Page 163 and 164: World Disasters Report 2010 - Disas
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Page 167 and 168: �� Miscellaneous accidents: Col
Page 169 and 170: Information systems have improved v
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Table 2 Total number of people repo
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Table 4 Total amount of disaster es
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Table 6 Total number of people repo
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Table 8 Total amount of disaster es
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During the decade: Asia accounted f
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During the decade: Medium human dev
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During the decade: Medium human dev
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During the decade: Americas account
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Total number of people reported kil
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World Disasters Report 2010 - Disas
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Making cities resilient: A ten-poin
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The UNDP Country Office interventio
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which was the 1961 flood that invol
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with semi-rural mountainous areas,
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a Federal Relief Commission and an
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Benin 96, 119, 136, 182 Bogotá 86,
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disasters 7-8, 11-16, 18, 20-22, 26
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high-income nations 12-13, 16-17, 1
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landslide(s) 21-22, 45, 56-57, 117,
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Oceania 12, 166-169, 174-176, 178,
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slum(s) 7, 11, 15, 22-23, 28, 31, 3
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urbanization 7-8, 11-12, 16-19, 27-
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The Fundamental Principles of the I
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