World Disasters Report 2010 - International Federation of Red Cross ...

to peak if the planet is to have a chance of limiting temperature increase to between
2 and 2.4 degrees Celsius. The general acceptance by the G8 of a 2 degrees Celsius
ceiling may still be too much for many coastal cities’ defences and this needs to be
recognized sooner rather than later when it comes to investment in disaster risk reduction.
Entrenched dichotomies between climate change adaptation and disaster risk
reduction need to be dismantled long before then to enable a focus on building urban
resilience. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies for
example, in its Strategy 2020, addresses climate change adaptation “through scaling up
disaster risk reduction measures and strengthening traditional methods of coping with
disasters that are relevant in particular environmental contexts”.
Climate change will have both a quantitative and a qualitative impact on the risks
facing urban areas in coming decades. In particular, the inability to predict future
emissions scenarios and the lack of precise knowledge about the impacts that these
will have on the global climatic system means that urban residents and authorities will
have to deal with an increasing level of uncertainty around the frequency and intensity
of extreme weather events. Many countries still have some way to go in order to catch
up with reality: a WMO survey in 2006 showed that more than 60 per cent of its 189
members are inadequately equipped to warn populations against hazards, particularly
in most vulnerable countries. It seems remarkable that it was only in April 2010 that
30 ministers in charge of meteorology in Africa met for the first time under the auspices
of WMO and the African Union, given that Africa is so poorly equipped to deal
with climate change at both urban and rural levels.
When combined with increasing levels of urbanization and ongoing social and environmental
problems in towns and cities, risk and vulnerability for many urban residents
are likely to be exacerbated. The impacts of climate change will be distributed
unevenly within urban populations, with low-income groups being particularly vulnerable
due to their greater exposure to hazards and their lower levels of adaptive
capacity. A focus on building resilience to cope with uncertainty, rather than applying
solutions based on specific scenarios, is therefore the best way of protecting the lives
and livelihoods of urban residents.
The actions taken by urban authorities, civil society organizations and humanitarian
agencies in urban areas can make a substantial difference to the ability of towns and
cities – and their residents – to respond to disasters and climate change. For city
dwellers in low-income and many middle-income countries, the biggest single issue is
the infrastructure deficit – the inability of urban systems to deal with current climate
variability. Many of the hazards and risks facing cities as a result of climate change are
modifications to existing hazards and risks – and cities that are unable to deal with
the challenges of today will be unable to deal with the new climate challenges of the
future. Improved planning for disaster risks, including better short-term forecasting
of shocks, is therefore also a key component for responding to climate change. At the
World Disasters Report 2010 – Focus on urban risk
133