World Disasters Report 2010 - International Federation of Red Cross ...

fast-growing urban environment created over
recent years due to the absence of strategic
planning and informal development that has
resulted in elevated risk. In 1950, Istanbul
had a population of 1.16 million; today it is
home to 12.5 million people and produces
one-quarter of the country’s GDP. Since the
1999 Izmit earthquake, which killed more than
17,000 people and impacted partly on the
eastern edges of Istanbul, the city has been well
aware that another devastating earthquake will
happen and the next time possibly with even
greater impact and closer to Istanbul.
In addition to earthquakes, flooding is also
becoming a problem. Throughout the city, industries,
residences and even major transport
arteries are located on riverbeds and riverbanks.
Small-scale flood events are a regular
occurrence, and local news channels periodically
report that one or two people have died
in flash floods. In September 2009, the heaviest
rainfall recorded in Istanbul in 80 years caused
flash flooding leading to the deaths of at least
40 people and to US$ 550 million in damages.
The bodies of seven women were discovered
in Bagcilar, a working-class suburb. They had
drowned in a minibus that was taking them to
jobs at a textile factory.
The vulnerability of Istanbul to multiple hazards
today, in 2010, is a result of decisions
and actions about urban development made
over the last 60 years. Looking at the example
of housing production in Istanbul shows us how
a vulnerability gap is produced over time.
Starting from the first waves of immigration
into Istanbul in the 1940s and continuing
through the 1980s, housing was produced
through informal building, called gecekondu
(meaning ‘built overnight’). Different versions
of amnesty laws throughout the years (1949,
1953, 1963, 1966, 1976, 1983) effectively
gave many occupiers the ‘right to use’ of the
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land, and municipalities provided services to
these areas and undertook upgrading of public
infrastructure. In 1984, a law was passed that
allowed the building of gecekondu areas up
to four storeys, which dramatically transformed
the landscape of the city from single-storey
garden plots built by families themselves to
multi-storey apartment buildings built by smallscale
developers. Today, it is estimated that
70 per cent of the housing stock is either illegal
or legalized and much housing has been built
with no supervision for earthquake building
codes. If a 7.5 magnitude earthquake (similar
to the one in 1999) were to occur, it is estimated
that of approximately 800,000 buildings
in Istanbul, 25 per cent would have moderate
damage, 10 per cent would have extensive
damage and 5 per cent could be expected to
collapse completely.
In the past ten years, since the great earthquake
of 1999, the government has undertaken
several initiatives to try and reduce the
earthquake risk in Istanbul, including urban
master plans for earthquake risk reduction,
legislative changes regarding building supervision,
mandatory earthquake insurance and
mandates for municipalities to undertake urban
regeneration projects to replace vulnerable
buildings. Thus, on one side of the vulnerability
gap, the political will and the expertise for
risk reduction are now present in Istanbul, yet
the capacity for implementation is still lacking
as these government initiatives have had little
impact on the ground thus far.
The other side of the gap – people’s ability
to reduce risk – is limited by many factors,
including their perception of risk, their knowledge
of earthquake-safe building techniques,
complicated ownership structures and financial
constraints. For example, to make existing
buildings safer, authorities have proposed
retro fitting to meet earthquake safety standards.