World Disasters Report 2010 - International Federation of Red Cross ...

impacts of changing precipitation patterns and susceptibility to sea-level rise and storm
surges. However, exposure to risk is not the same as vulnerability. A 2009 WWF report
on the risks of climate change in ten Asian cities concluded that Manila, Ho Chi Minh
City, Shanghai and Dhaka were all highly exposed to climatic threats. Some cities that
are also highly exposed – including Kuala Lumpur, Hong Kong and Singapore – were
identified as being much less vulnerable, because they possess the adaptive capacity to
manage threats. The most vulnerable cities, such as Dhaka, Jakarta and Manila, are
both highly exposed and have relatively low levels of adaptive capacity.
Urban areas located in coastal areas are particularly exposed to sea-level rise. The lowelevation
coastal zone – the contiguous area along the world’s coastlines that is less than
10 metres above sea level – covers just 2 per cent of the world’s land area but contains
13 per cent of the world’s urban population. By 2007, Africa had 37 cities with more
than 1 million inhabitants and half of them are within – or have parts within – the lowelevation
coastal zone. In Cotonou, Benin, coastal erosion is already affecting residential
areas, fishing communities and the city’s industrial and tourism sectors. A sea-level rise
of 50cm would lead to over 2 million people in Alexandria, Egypt, needing to abandon
their homes and would cause financial losses associated with land, property and tourism
income of over US$ 35 billion. Much of Lagos, Nigeria is also low-lying, and the
low-income urban population there faces a worsening situation as floods become more
severe from the combination of increasing frequency of storm surges, heavy rainfall of
long duration or high intensity and inadequate drainage systems.
The East African coast is also expected to be affected by sea-level rise, resulting in
potential adaptation costs of up to 10 per cent of gross domestic product. In Dar es
Salaam, Tanzania, coastal erosion is affecting the area of Kunduchi Beach to the north
of the city. Other activities – such as the dynamiting of coral reefs for fishing, sand
extraction for construction and the removal of mangroves – will worsen the impacts of
sea-level rise in this area. In Asia, large sections of Dhaka and Shanghai are only one
to five metres above mean sea level, while much of Mumbai is built on landfill and is
likely to suffer from more serious storm surges and increased frequency and intensity
of extreme weather as a result of climate change. Perhaps not surprisingly, in all of these
cases, it is mostly low-income households living in informal or illegal settlements that
face the greatest risks from flooding. Salinization of drinking water and groundwater
is also a concern, as many coastal cities derive water from just above salt fronts. As sea
levels rise, so too does the likelihood of drawing in saline water for municipal water
supply systems.
Another geographically specific aspect of climate risk is an increase in water scarcity,
which will particularly affect cities located in semi-arid regions. As South American
glaciers retreat, many cities in the Andes will face water shortages during the dry season.
A study from the central Andes of Peru suggests that the largest city in the region,
Huancayo, with a population of approximately 325,000, is already experiencing water
World Disasters Report 2010 – Focus on urban risk
119