World Disasters Report 2010 - International Federation of Red Cross ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

CHAPTER 2 40 The index is most heavily influenced first of all by values of exposed assets and their degree of vulnerability. Figure 2.4 shows that Tokyo is, by far, the city at highest risk, followed by San Francisco. Of the 20 highest-risk cities in the index, 17 are in highincome countries. This makes sense given that the index is trying to gauge the risk for insurers and thus the value of exposed assets, which is greater in high-income countries and is an important factor in understanding the potential for economic losses in a disaster. The index shows that for large disasters, the economic costs are often much higher in high-income nations and much of this will be in urban areas, but this is not an indicator of how many people faced serious economic losses and did not have insurance. The index does not at all convey the reality that very large numbers of low-income urban dwellers can lose their homes and most or all their assets from disasters; the total monetary value of this is small but the hardships on individuals and families are immense. Vision two: Flood exposure in port cities An index published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ranks 136 port cities of over 1 million population with high exposure to one-in-100year, surge-induced flood events. It looks at the exposure of population and assets, in 2005 and those predicted in 2070. Future predictions account for population growth, urbanization, ground subsidence and climatic changes. Population growth and investment in urban infrastructure are the most important drivers for increase in exposure to surge-induced floods. This is especially true in developing regions, which are expected to have large growth. Overall, without any increase in water levels, asset exposure could grow eight-fold. Climate changes, as predicted by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including increased storm intensity and sea-level rise, also influence increased exposure. The influence of human-induced subsidence due to shallow groundwater extraction is especially important in deltaic cities that are rapidly developing. The index overwhelmingly shows that cities in Asia have the highest exposure to surgeinduced flooding now and in the future. Of the 20 cities with the highest population exposure in 2005, half are in low- and middle-income nations in Asia. In real numbers, out of the total 38.5 million people currently exposed, 65 per cent of them live in Asian cities. Figure 2.5 shows the top 20 world port cities with exposed populations in 2005. In the 2070s, the index predicts that 17 out of the 20 cities with the highest population exposure will be in present-day low- and middle-income countries and 14 out of 20 of the cities will be in Asia (four in China and two in Bangladesh). Asia’s increasing dominance in terms of population and asset exposure is a result of increased urbanization and economic growth during the period, compared with other regions.
Figure 2.5 Port cities with highest exposed population in 2005 to one-in-100-year, surge-induced flood events New Orleans 1.12m Miami 2m Rotterdam 0.75m Abidjan 0.51m Amsterdam 0.83m Alexandria 1.33m Mumbai 2.78m New York 1.54m Kolkata 1.92m Bangkok 0.90m Dhaka 0.84m Guangzhou, Guangdong 2.71m Shanghai 2.35m Shenzen 0.70m Haiphong 0.79m Tianjin 0.95m Ho Chi Minh City 1.93m Nagoya 0.69m World Disasters Report 2010 – Focus on urban risk Tokyo 1.11m Osaka–Kobe 1.37m As a result of projected growth and climatic change over the period, many smaller cities will also experience very rapid increases in population exposure, for example, Mogadishu in Somalia and Conakry in Guinea are expected to see population exposure increased by 12-fold (see Table 2.2). Of the 15 cities that will see the highest population exposure increase, six of them are in sub-Saharan Africa and eight are in Asia. One needs to view these findings with caution, however, because the projections for urban growth over the period may be totally distorted. Some countries, especially those in sub-Saharan Africa, may not have had a census for over 20 years. For example, Mogadishu is within a failed state, yet the index envisages it growing hugely. Nonetheless, while absolute exposure is low in some of these cities, a rapid increase in exposure to flooding can lead to increases in small-scale disasters. The potential for losses at the household level in these cities is especially acute in the fast-growing and low-lying informal settlements lacking adequate flood protection and drainage infrastructure. Furthermore, Dhaka, Chittagong and Khulna in Bangladesh, Yangon in Myanmar and Ningbo in China are all expected to experience high absolute exposure, meaning that these cities will also be at risk for large-scale flooding disasters, which could impact on large portions of the city, damaging infrastructure and economic activities. Source: Nicholls et al. (2008) 41
Page 2: The International Federation of Red
Page 5 and 6: World Disasters Report 2010 Focus o
Page 7 and 8: Contents International Federation o
Page 9 and 10: Chapter 6 Urbanization and climate
Page 11 and 12: Annex 2 Making cities resilient: A
Page 13 and 14: annually despite commendable effort
Page 15 and 16: Avoiding the urbanization of disast
Page 17 and 18: in low-income nations even though a
Page 19 and 20: The last few decades have also brou
Page 21 and 22: But only a very small proportion of
Page 23 and 24: einforce the view that disaster ris
Page 25 and 26: institutions. Poor people have a lo
Page 27 and 28: Box 1.2 Can Haiti build back better
Page 29 and 30: was ‘illegal’, makes reconstruc
Page 31 and 32: that the needs and priorities of th
Page 33 and 34: Ravallion, M., Chen, S. and Sangrau
Page 35 and 36: Urban disaster trends It is well kn
Page 37 and 38: about 65 per cent of the world’s
Page 39 and 40: With the exception of the South Asi
Page 41 and 42: fires and traffic accidents. Buildi
Page 43: large cities in low- and middle-inc
Page 47 and 48: expansion is driving risk in many A
Page 49 and 50: know the phone number) and the fire
Page 51 and 52: However, the incentive for owners t
Page 53 and 54: The focus on assets, especially hig
Page 55 and 56: Munich Re Group. Topics Annual Revi
Page 57 and 58: Starting over: Community rights and
Page 59 and 60: on this. However, it is complicated
Page 61 and 62: all those in the evacuation centre)
Page 63 and 64: those affected, help them get organ
Page 65 and 66: disaster events. Governments often
Page 67 and 68: In urban areas, rebuilding homes an
Page 69 and 70: ownership or other formalized/legal
Page 71 and 72: However, the scope of the upgrading
Page 73 and 74: Sources and further information Ade
Page 75 and 76: Syukrizal, A., Hafidz, W. and Saute
Page 77 and 78: Urban violence As more people crowd
Page 79 and 80: Drug production and trafficking Sou
Page 81 and 82: Economic development In economic te
Page 83 and 84: Surrounding what happens in homes a
Page 85 and 86: Table 4.1 Measuring inequality Coun
Page 87 and 88: Crisis of legitimacy Many states wi
Page 89 and 90: and in a sense of hopelessness for
Page 91 and 92: At the same time, many of the world
Page 93 and 94: can help, but - as the Organisation
Page 95 and 96:
Fukuyama, F. ‘A Quiet Revolution:
Page 97 and 98:
Tedesco, L. Latin American States -
Page 99 and 100:
Urban risk to health The rapid rise
Page 101 and 102:
are malnourished, compared with 16
Page 103 and 104:
show that prices of imported rice a
Page 105 and 106:
pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria, meas
Page 107 and 108:
SARS caused near global panic for a
Page 109 and 110:
Urban life affects the way people w
Page 111 and 112:
The Red Cross has 90 first-aid stat
Page 113 and 114:
private life. Equally significant a
Page 115 and 116:
Sources and further information Bur
Page 117 and 118:
World Economic Forum. Global Risks
Page 119 and 120:
Urbanization and climate change ris
Page 121 and 122:
more frequent hot days and nights,
Page 123 and 124:
impacts of changing precipitation p
Page 125 and 126:
feedback have all been used to help
Page 127 and 128:
Addressing the causes of climate ch
Page 129 and 130:
The Green Party Minister for the En
Page 131 and 132:
The inquiry dealt only with technic
Page 133 and 134:
Ensuring climate and disaster prepa
Page 135 and 136:
negotiations. However, there are no
Page 137 and 138:
to peak if the planet is to have a
Page 139 and 140:
Sources and further information Ade
Page 141 and 142:
Mata, J. L. and Nobre, C. Backgroun
Page 143 and 144:
Urban governance and disaster risk
Page 145 and 146:
the city government has developed a
Page 147 and 148:
For many cities, including those me
Page 149 and 150:
many such cities is participatory b
Page 151 and 152:
due to El Niño. Many other factors
Page 153 and 154:
all provinces by the end of 2009. T
Page 155 and 156:
in informal settlements than in the
Page 157 and 158:
Conclusion As we pointed out at the
Page 159 and 160:
Fay, M., Ghesquiere, F. and Solo, T
Page 161 and 162:
Satterthwaite, D. et al. ‘Adaptin
Page 163 and 164:
World Disasters Report 2010 - Disas
Page 165 and 166:
(eight windstorms, one flood, one w
Page 167 and 168:
�� Miscellaneous accidents: Col
Page 169 and 170:
Information systems have improved v
Page 171 and 172:
Table 2 Total number of people repo
Page 173 and 174:
Table 4 Total amount of disaster es
Page 175 and 176:
Table 6 Total number of people repo
Page 177 and 178:
Table 8 Total amount of disaster es
Page 179 and 180:
During the decade: Asia accounted f
Page 181 and 182:
During the decade: Medium human dev
Page 183 and 184:
During the decade: Medium human dev
Page 185 and 186:
During the decade: Americas account
Page 187 and 188:
Total number of people reported kil
Page 189 and 190:
Page 191 and 192:
Page 193 and 194:
World Disasters Report 2010 - Disas
Page 195 and 196:
Making cities resilient: A ten-poin
Page 197 and 198:
The UNDP Country Office interventio
Page 199 and 200:
which was the 1961 flood that invol
Page 201 and 202:
with semi-rural mountainous areas,
Page 203 and 204:
a Federal Relief Commission and an
Page 205 and 206:
Benin 96, 119, 136, 182 Bogotá 86,
Page 207 and 208:
disasters 7-8, 11-16, 18, 20-22, 26
Page 209 and 210:
high-income nations 12-13, 16-17, 1
Page 211 and 212:
landslide(s) 21-22, 45, 56-57, 117,
Page 213 and 214:
Oceania 12, 166-169, 174-176, 178,
Page 215 and 216:
slum(s) 7, 11, 15, 22-23, 28, 31, 3
Page 217 and 218:
urbanization 7-8, 11-12, 16-19, 27-
Page 219 and 220:
The Fundamental Principles of the I
show all

World Disasters Report 2010 - International Federation of Red Cross ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?