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The HIV prevalence among women and men age 15-49 age has decreased between 2010 and <strong>2015</strong>-<strong>16</strong> from<br />

10.6%, CI ([9.6%-11.6%]), to 8.8%, CI ([8.0%-9.5%]). The prevalence was 11.8% in 2004.To assess the<br />

trend in HIV prevalence in <strong>Malawi</strong> with more comparable HIV prevalence estimates across the three<br />

surveys, a second HIV prevalence estimate was calculated for the <strong>2015</strong>-<strong>16</strong> survey with an algorithm<br />

similar to those used in the 2004 and 2010 DHS surveys (i.e., the result of the InnoLia assay was ignored,<br />

and all specimens with positive results on two ELISAs were classified as positive). The HIV prevalence<br />

estimate for the <strong>2015</strong>-<strong>16</strong> MDHS data with this older testing algorithm was 10.4%, CI ([9.6%-11.1%]),<br />

among women and men age 15-49. The estimate with the old HIV testing algorithm for the <strong>2015</strong>-<strong>16</strong><br />

MDHS is significantly higher than the estimate of 8.8%, CI ([8.0%-9.5%]), based on the new HIV testing<br />

algorithm.<br />

The results in Figure 14.2, which show the HIV prevalence estimates for all three MDHS surveys with the<br />

old HIV testing algorithm, indicate that HIV prevalence among women and men age 15-49 decreased<br />

slightly between 2004 and <strong>2015</strong>-<strong>16</strong>. However, the confidence intervals for the HIV prevalence presented in<br />

the Figure 14.2 overlap, which indicates that there is no evidence of a statistically significant change in<br />

HIV prevalence from 2004 to 2010 and <strong>2015</strong>-<strong>16</strong>.<br />

Figure 14.2 Trends in HIV prevalence<br />

<strong>16</strong><br />

14<br />

12<br />

10<br />

8<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

11.8<br />

10.6 10.4<br />

13.3 12.9<br />

12.2<br />

10.2<br />

8.1 8.3<br />

2004 2010 <strong>2015</strong>-<strong>16</strong> 2004 2010 <strong>2015</strong>-<strong>16</strong> 2004 2010 <strong>2015</strong>-<strong>16</strong><br />

Total age<br />

15-49<br />

Percentage of women and men age 15-49 who are<br />

HIV positive, with confidence intervals<br />

Women<br />

age 15-49<br />

Men<br />

age 15-49<br />

HIV prevalence estimates presented in this chapter use the new HIV testing algorithm that includes the<br />

confirmatory assay on dual-ELISA positive specimens.<br />

Patterns by demographic characteristics<br />

• Among both women and men, HIV prevalence is<br />

twice as high in urban areas as compared to rural<br />

areas (14.6% versus 7.4%) (Table 14.4). In<br />

urban areas, HIV prevalence is 17.8% among<br />

women and 11.0% among men while the<br />

prevalence is 9.2% and 5.4%, respectively, in<br />

rural areas (Figure 14.3).<br />

Figure 14.3 HIV prevalence by residence<br />

and sex<br />

Percentage of women and men age 15-49<br />

who are HIV positive<br />

10.8<br />

17.8<br />

Total Urban Rural<br />

9.2<br />

6.4<br />

11.0<br />

5.4<br />

Women<br />

Men<br />

HIV Prevalence • 231

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