Rob van Hest Capture-recapture Methods in Surveillance - RePub ...

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Underreporting of tuberculosis in the Piedmont Region, Italy estimated crude annual incidence of tuberculosis (16.7/100 000) was about twice that of all Italy (8/100 000) and was also higher than reported for the Piedmont region (12/100 000). 5,7,21 Record-linkage with additional capture-recapture analysis is a valuable means for quantifying underreporting and can provide relatively accurate estimates of the annual incidence of tuberculosis in areas where multiple recording systems are available. 22 The incidence estimates found are representative of low tuberculosis prevalence areas. The overall crude annual incidence rate is similar to those of neighbouring countries such as Austria, France and Switzerland, which range from 11 to 16/100 000. 7 Inaccurate estimates of the annual incidence of tuberculosis, particularly among high-risk subsets of the population such as immigrants from HTBCs and urban dwellers, vitiate the implementation of appropriate prevention and control measures. Our analyses for different subsets of the population in this study confirmed that persons from HTBCs have a much higher risk of developing tuberculosis than the local population. A similar phenomenon has been reported among immigrants and asylum seekers elsewhere. 23 The estimated annual tuberculosis rate in the Turin urban area is 32.1/100 000, which is three times higher than the rate in the rest of the Piedmont Region. A comparable trend has been reported in other metropolitan areas of Europe, such as Amsterdam, London and Rotterdam. 23,24 These rates reflect larger risk groups for tuberculosis in the population of large cities, such as certain ethnic groups, illegal immigrants, homeless persons and drug addicts. 25 The high rate among the elderly (97% of whom originated from LTBCs) is typical of tuberculosis epidemiology in low-incidence countries. Few young people are infected and develop active disease, while older persons can experience endogenous reactivation of latent tuberculosis infection or of a previous episode of tuberculosis in the era before effective chemotherapy. Although HIV infection is a well-known predisposing factor for active tuberculosis, 26 it makes a minor contribution to the burden of tuberculosis in Piedmont, as 5% of all cases were found to be HIV-seropositive. This proportion is consistent with the estimates of TB-HIV in the WHO European Region. 27 Our finding of a sensitivity of around 85% for the ‘physician notification system’, currently implemented in the Piedmont Region, for detecting tuberculosis in immigrants from HTBCs, pulmonary tuberculosis and confirmed cases (the most important groups in terms of tuberculosis transmission control) is encouraging. This might reflect heightened awareness among both clinicians and public health authorities about the notification and surveillance of potentially infectious tuberculosis. Our observation confirms that tuberculosis patients aged ≥ 60 years are at risk of underdetection (25% for ‘physician notification system’). 28,29 The sensitivity of hospital discharge records, ranging from 50.9% for persons from HTBCs to more than 90% for extrapulmonary tuberculosis cases, is presumably affected by a different need for hospitalisation of the two groups, the former preferably being managed as out-patients and the latter usually being admitted to hospital for diagnostic workup. We have described how assessment of tuberculosis incidence and case detection of tuberculosis in areas where multiple recording systems are available, such as the Piedmont Region in Italy, can be improved considerably by record-linkage of different data sources, such as the ‘physician notification system’ and laboratories. Implementation 105
Chapter 7 of routine independent reporting from laboratories should be enforced to reduce underascertainment and improve the quality of information on diagnostic practices and criteria. Subsequent capture-recapture analysis, despite its inherent methodological limitations, 30 can be used to estimate total tuberculosis incidence and the completeness of registration, thus contributing to more accurate surveillance of local tuberculosis epidemiology. A detailed subset analysis can further identify gaps in the surveillance system and indicate adequate corrective interventions, such as improving the education of health care providers about reporting requirements or modifying reporting procedures. Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Prof B Terracini, Prof A Biggeri, Prof N Pearce and Dr C Sacerdote for helpful comments and support in the research. The study was supported by ‘Ricerca Finalizzata’ Regione Piemonte/CIPE. The capture-recapture methods were developed within the framework of the Special Project ‘Oncology’, Compagnia San Paolo FIRMS, and of a grant from the Italian Association for Cancer Research References 1. Rieder HL, Watson JM, Raviglione MC, Forssbohm M, Migliori GB, Schwoebel V, Leitch AG, Zellweger JP. Surveillance of tuberculosis in Europe. Working Group of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Region of the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (IUATLD) for uniform reporting on tuberculosis cases. Eur Respir J 1996; 9: 1097-104. 2. Migliori GB, Spanevello A, Ballardini L, Neri M, Gambarini C, Moro ML, Trnka L, Raviglione MC. Validation of the surveillance system for new cases of tuberculosis in a province of northern Italy. Varese Tuberculosis Study Group. Eur Respir J 1995; 8: 1252-8. 3. Pillaye J, Clarke A. An evaluation of completeness of tuberculosis notification in the United Kingdom. BMC Public Health 2003; 3: 31. 4. Tocque K, Bellis MA, Beeching NJ, Davies PD. Capture-recapture as a method of determining the completeness of tuberculosis notifications. Commun Dis Public Health 2001; 4: 141-3. 5. World Health Organization. Global Tuberculosis Control: Surveillance, Planning, Financing. WHO Report 2003. Geneva: WHO, 2003. 6. Moro ML, Malfait P, Salamina G, D'Amato S. [Tuberculosis in Italy: available data and open questions]. Epidemiol Prev 1999; 23: 27-36. 7. Buiatti E, Acciai S, Ragni P, Tortoli E, Barbieri A, Cravedi B, Santini MG. [The quantification of tuberculous disease in an Italian area and the estimation of underreporting by means of record-linkage]. Epidemiol Prev 1998; 22: 237-41. 8. Hook EB, Regal RR. Capture-recapture methods in epidemiology: methods and limitations. Epidemiol Rev 1995; 17: 243-64. 9. International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting. Capture-recapture and multiplerecord systems estimation I: History and theoretical development. International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting. Am J Epidemiol 1995; 142: 1047-58. 10. International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting. Capture-recapture and multiplerecord systems estimation II: Applications in human diseases. International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting. Am J Epidemiol 1995; 142: 1059-68. 11. Bruno G, LaPorte RE, Merletti F, Biggeri A, McCarty D, Pagano G. National diabetes programs. Application of capture-recapture to count diabetes? Diabetes Care 1994; 17: 548-56. 12. Tilling K, Sterne JA, Wolfe CD. Estimation of the incidence of stroke using a capture-recapture model including covariates. Int J Epidemiol 2001; 30: 1351-9. 13. Pezzotti P, Piovesan C, Michieletto F, Zanella F, Rezza G, Gallo G. Estimating the cumulative number of human immunodeficiency virus diagnoses by cross-linking from four different sources. Int J Epidemiol 2003; 32: 778-83. 14. Van Hest NA, Smit F, Verhave JP. Underreporting of malaria incidence in the Netherlands: results from a capture-recapture study. Epidemiol Infect 2002; 129: 371-7. 106
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Capture-recapture Methods in Survei
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Colofon Capture-recapture methods i
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Promotiecommissie Promotor: Prof.dr
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Contents Page 1 Introduction 9 2 Me
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Chapter 1 1.1 Assessing completenes
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Chapter 1 94% among AIDS patients w
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Table 1.1 Objectives, methods, data
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Researchers Objective Method Data-s
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Chapter 1 source capture-recapture
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Chapter 1 32. Bradley BL, Kerr KM,
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2 Methodology of capture-recapture
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Methodology of capture-recapture an
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Chapter 3 3.1 Application of captur
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Table 3.1 Published capture-recaptu
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Disease Authors Objective Method Da
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Chapter 3 3.3 References 1. Hook EB
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Chapter 3 52. Reintjes R, Termorshu
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Chapter 4 Abstract The aim of this
Page 55 and 56: Chapter 4 Methods Nearly all Dutch
Page 57 and 58: Chapter 4 Table 4.2 The number of m
Page 59 and 60: Chapter 4 diagnosis. Other patients
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 4 stratify the population i
Page 63 and 64: Chapter 4 25. Lambeth, Southwark an
Page 65 and 66: Chapter 5 Abstract To estimate inci
Page 67 and 68: Chapter 5 patients. Capture-recaptu
Page 69 and 70: Chapter 5 Figure 5.1 Four regions o
Page 71 and 72: Chapter 5 Hospital records From 385
Page 73 and 74: Chapter 5 Table 5.1 Epidemiological
Page 75 and 76: Table 5.2 Number and proportion of
Page 77 and 78: Chapter 5 cautious about the associ
Page 79 and 80: Chapter 5 Incidence of community-ac
Page 81 and 82: Chapter 6 Abstract The aim of this
Page 83 and 84: Chapter 6 3. Hospitalised patients
Page 85 and 86: Chapter 6 Record-linkage of all 537
Page 87 and 88: Chapter 6 Figure 6.1 Schematic view
Page 89 and 90: Chapter 6 Table 6.2 Total and strat
Page 91 and 92: Chapter 6 administrative discrepanc
Page 93 and 94: Chapter 6 the patients, and complet
Page 96 and 97: 7 Undetected burden of tuberculosis
Page 98 and 99: Introduction Underreporting of tube
Page 100 and 101: Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 102 and 103: Table 7.1 Total and subset numbers
Page 104 and 105: Table 7.2 Capture-recapture estimat
Page 108: Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 111 and 112: Chapter 8 Abstract In 1999 the Enha
Page 113 and 114: Chapter 8 bacteriological confirmat
Page 115 and 116: Chapter 8 Results Table 8.1 shows t
Page 117 and 118: Table 8.3 Annual and overall observ
Page 119 and 120: Table 8.4 Annual and overall estima
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 8 interaction however, i.e.
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 8 shows that observed under
Page 126 and 127: 9 Estimating the coverage of tuberc
Page 128 and 129: Introduction Estimating targeted mo
Page 130 and 131: Estimating targeted mobile tubercul
Page 136 and 137: References Estimating targeted mobi
Page 138 and 139: 10 Estimating infectious diseases i
Page 140 and 141: Introduction Estimating infectious
Page 142 and 143: Estimating infectious disease incid
Page 144 and 145: Study Disease and number of patient
Page 146 and 147: 4. Gallay A, Vaillant V, Bouvet P,
Page 148 and 149: Table 10.3 Comparison of the variou
Page 150 and 151: Discussion Estimating infectious di
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Estimating infectious disease incid
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Chapter 11 The aim of this thesis i
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Chapter 11 overestimation of the nu
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Chapter 11 clinicians to the Public
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Chapter 11 operation with the chest
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Chapter 11 of the proportion of fal
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Chapter 11 Question 3: What is the
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Chapter 11 11.2 Some findings of th
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Chapter 11 • To improve timelines
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Summary Summary Surveillance is an
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Summary linkage of notification and
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Samenvatting Samenvatting Surveilla
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Samenvatting subgroepen binnen de b
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements W
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Curriculum vitae Rob van Hest was b
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Publications This thesis Van Hest N
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