Rob van Hest Capture-recapture Methods in Surveillance - RePub ...

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10 Estimating infectious diseases incidence: validity of capture-recapture analysis and truncated models for incomplete count data N.A.H. VAN HEST 1,2 , A.D. GRANT 5 , F. SMIT 3,4 , A. STORY 6 and J.H. RICHARDUS 1,2 1 Department of Infectious Disease Control, Municipal Public Health Service Rotterdam-Rijnmond, Rotterdam 2 Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, Rotterdam 3 Trimbos Institute of Mental Health and Addiction, Utrecht 4 Department of Clinical Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam the Netherlands 5 Statistics, Modelling and Bioinformatics Department, Centre for Infections, Health Protection Agency, London 6 Respiratory Diseases Department, Centre for Infections, Health Protection Agency, London United Kingdom Epidemiol Infect 2007; Published on-line: 11 March 2007; doi:10.1017/ S0950268807008254
Chapter 10 Abstract Capture-recapture analysis has been used to evaluate infectious disease surveillance. Violation of the underlying assumptions can jeopardize the validity of the capturerecapture estimates and a tool is needed for cross-validation. We re-examined nineteen datasets of log-linear model capture-recapture studies on infectious disease incidence using three truncated models for incomplete count data as alternative population estimators. The truncated models yield comparable estimates to independent log-linear capture-recapture models and to parsimonious log-linear models when the number of patients is limited or the ratio between patients registered once and twice is between 0.5 and 1.5. Compared to saturated log-linear models the truncated models produce considerably lower and often more plausible estimates. We conclude that for estimating infectious disease incidence independent and parsimonious three-source log-linear capture–recapture models are preferable but truncated models can be used as a heuristic tool to identify possible failure in log-linear models, especially when saturated log-linear models are selected. 138
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Capture-recapture Methods in Survei
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Colofon Capture-recapture methods i
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Promotiecommissie Promotor: Prof.dr
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Contents Page 1 Introduction 9 2 Me
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Chapter 1 1.1 Assessing completenes
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Chapter 1 94% among AIDS patients w
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Table 1.1 Objectives, methods, data
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Researchers Objective Method Data-s
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Chapter 1 source capture-recapture
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Chapter 1 32. Bradley BL, Kerr KM,
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2 Methodology of capture-recapture
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Methodology of capture-recapture an
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Chapter 3 3.1 Application of captur
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Table 3.1 Published capture-recaptu
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Disease Authors Objective Method Da
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Chapter 3 3.3 References 1. Hook EB
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Chapter 3 52. Reintjes R, Termorshu
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Chapter 4 Abstract The aim of this
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Chapter 4 Methods Nearly all Dutch
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Chapter 4 Table 4.2 The number of m
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Chapter 4 diagnosis. Other patients
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Chapter 4 stratify the population i
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Chapter 4 25. Lambeth, Southwark an
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Chapter 5 Abstract To estimate inci
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Chapter 5 patients. Capture-recaptu
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Chapter 5 Figure 5.1 Four regions o
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Chapter 5 Hospital records From 385
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Chapter 5 Table 5.1 Epidemiological
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Table 5.2 Number and proportion of
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Chapter 5 cautious about the associ
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Chapter 5 Incidence of community-ac
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Chapter 6 Abstract The aim of this
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Chapter 6 3. Hospitalised patients
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Chapter 6 Record-linkage of all 537
Page 87 and 88: Chapter 6 Figure 6.1 Schematic view
Page 89 and 90: Chapter 6 Table 6.2 Total and strat
Page 91 and 92: Chapter 6 administrative discrepanc
Page 93 and 94: Chapter 6 the patients, and complet
Page 96 and 97: 7 Undetected burden of tuberculosis
Page 98 and 99: Introduction Underreporting of tube
Page 100 and 101: Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 102 and 103: Table 7.1 Total and subset numbers
Page 104 and 105: Table 7.2 Capture-recapture estimat
Page 106 and 107: Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 108: Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 111 and 112: Chapter 8 Abstract In 1999 the Enha
Page 113 and 114: Chapter 8 bacteriological confirmat
Page 115 and 116: Chapter 8 Results Table 8.1 shows t
Page 117 and 118: Table 8.3 Annual and overall observ
Page 119 and 120: Table 8.4 Annual and overall estima
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 8 interaction however, i.e.
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 8 shows that observed under
Page 126 and 127: 9 Estimating the coverage of tuberc
Page 128 and 129: Introduction Estimating targeted mo
Page 130 and 131: Estimating targeted mobile tubercul
Page 136 and 137: References Estimating targeted mobi
Page 140 and 141: Introduction Estimating infectious
Page 142 and 143: Estimating infectious disease incid
Page 144 and 145: Study Disease and number of patient
Page 146 and 147: 4. Gallay A, Vaillant V, Bouvet P,
Page 148 and 149: Table 10.3 Comparison of the variou
Page 150 and 151: Discussion Estimating infectious di
Page 156: Estimating infectious disease incid
Page 159 and 160: Chapter 11 The aim of this thesis i
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 11 overestimation of the nu
Page 163 and 164: Chapter 11 clinicians to the Public
Page 165 and 166: Chapter 11 operation with the chest
Page 167 and 168: Chapter 11 of the proportion of fal
Page 169 and 170: Chapter 11 Question 3: What is the
Page 171 and 172: Chapter 11 11.2 Some findings of th
Page 173 and 174: Chapter 11 • To improve timelines
Page 176 and 177: Summary Summary Surveillance is an
Page 178 and 179: Summary linkage of notification and
Page 180 and 181: Samenvatting Samenvatting Surveilla
Page 182 and 183: Samenvatting subgroepen binnen de b
Page 184 and 185: Acknowledgements Acknowledgements W
Page 186 and 187: Curriculum vitae Rob van Hest was b
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Publications This thesis Van Hest N
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