Rob van Hest Capture-recapture Methods in Surveillance - RePub ...

Chapter 1
source capture-recapture analysis, resulting in a covariate log-linear model in order to
reduce bias due to expected and observed geographical heterogeneity among the
Legionnaires’ disease patients. In Chapter 6 we estimate the completeness of notification
of incident tuberculosis cases in the Netherlands. We describe a systematic process of
record-linkage of three tuberculosis registers, cross-validation with four other
tuberculosis-related registers, case-ascertainment and conventional capture-recapture
analysis, initially resulting in a saturated log-linear model, and demonstrate the effect of
possible violation of the perfect record-linkage and perfect positive predictive value of
registers assumptions.
To address the second research question of this thesis, we show in Chapter 6
how a well-organised system of tuberculosis control in the Netherlands allows us to
correct an implausible high number of tuberculosis patients estimated by a saturated loglinear
model in a capture-recapture study at the national level for one year. We introduce
the application of a truncated Poisson model, related to capture-recapture analysis, to
cross-validate the conventional capture-recapture estimates. In Chapter 7 we describe a
relatively uncomplicated conventional three-source capture-recapture study to estimate
tuberculosis incidence and completeness of the tuberculosis registration systems at the
regional level in the Piedmont Region in Italy for one year, resulting in a parsimonious
log-linear model. We show how the regional scale of the study, a limited number of
patients and favourable privacy regulations made inspection of all clinical files possible
and allowed for identification of a considerable number of false-positive cases in the
hospital register. In Chapter 8 we show the advantage of two routinely linked
tuberculosis registers, as part of Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance in England, in a
three-source capture-recapture study at the national level for four years. Due to the scale
of this study as a disadvantage sophisticated record-linkage software was needed to link
the hospital records as a third data source and a population mixture model had to be
specified to estimate the proportion of false-positive cases among the unlinked hospitalderived
tuberculosis records. The final tuberculosis incidence estimates of the saturated
capture-recapture models are cross-validated with a structural source model, a truncated
Poisson model and a truncated Poisson mixture model.
To address the third research question of this thesis in Chapter 9 we estimate
the coverage of a mobile targeted digital X-ray tuberculosis screening programme for
illicit drug users and homeless persons in Rotterdam with Chao’s truncated heterogeneity
model and Zelterman’s truncated Poisson mixture model. We show how truncated
population estimation models can be used relatively easily when only one data source is
available. In Chapter 10 we re-examine 19 published and current international threesource
log-linear capture-recapture datasets on estimating tuberculosis and other
infectious disease incidence and completeness of registration, with various truncated
population estimation models and discuss the performance of these alternative models.
The General Discussion (Chapter 11) provides answers to the research
questions of this thesis and discusses aspects of the feasibility and validity of three-source
log-linear capture-recapture analysis and related truncated population estimators for
estimating the incidence of tuberculosis and other infectious diseases, and lists the
conclusions and recommendations.
18