Rob van Hest Capture-recapture Methods in Surveillance - RePub ...

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Introduction Capture-recapture studies estimating tuberculosis incidence or prevalence In addition to record-linkage of two or more tuberculosis registers, capture-recapture studies have been performed in the field of tuberculosis surveillance. 65,71-83 An overview of these studies is presented in Table1.1. Nine of the first 11 reports, published prior to the work in this thesis, used simple two-source capture-recapture models and only two studies (Liverpool, United Kingdom and Cayenne, French Guyana) applied three-source capture-recapture models. Seven studies originated from Spain. Five studies estimated the number of patients with pulmonary or respiratory tuberculosis, four studies estimated the number of patients with all forms of tuberculosis and one study estimated the number of patients with tuberculous meningitis. One study did not aim to estimate the total number of tuberculosis patients but the number of tuberculosis patients attributable to recent transmission. 78 Ten studies were performed at the local or regional level and one study was done at the national level. Nearly all studies used mandatory notification data, microbiology laboratory records or hospital episode statistics as data sources. Interviews with local residents and a national reference centre mycobacterial drug resistance survey were used as alternative data sources, apart from the study estimating the number of patients attributable to recent transmission which used an epidemiological recent transmission database and a microbiology DNA fingerprinting database. Two studies included less than 100 patients after record-linkage, eight studies between 100 and 500 patients and one study involved 1248 patients. Three studies describe a sequential analysis over multiple years. Estimated under-notification varied between 7.4% and 65%. Limitations of capture-recapture studies estimating tuberculosis incidence or prevalence The limitations to capture-recapture studies estimating tuberculosis incidence or prevalence depend, like in any capture-recapture study, on the violation of the underlying assumptions. These assumptions and methodological aspects of their violation will be discussed in detail in section 2.1.2. Briefly, for tuberculosis, as well as other diseases, violation of the perfect record-linkage assumption (i.e. no misclassification of records) is depending on the availability of a unique identifier in all registers, or sufficient proxyidentifiers. When, as most often, notification, laboratory and hospital registers are used, violation of the closed population assumption (i.e. no immigration or emigration in the time period studied) is presumably limited in countries with a well-organised tuberculosis control system, as the opportunities for notification, culture-confirmation or hospitalisation are largely determined within a short period of time. More likely is the violation of the assumption of independence between the different tuberculosis registers (i.e. the probability of being observed in one register is not affected by being –positive dependence– [or not being –negative dependence–] observed in another) as tuberculosis services are often organised around close collaboration (e.g. laboratory pre-notification, clinical isolation, contact-investigations and referrals) between clinicians, microbiologists and public health professionals such as tuberculosis physicians and tuberculosis nurses. Another more likely violation is that of the homogeneity assumption (i.e. the absence of subgroups in the population with markedly different probabilities of being observed and re-observed), e.g. age, location of disease and infectiousness can cause different probabilities of being observed in a tuberculosis-related register. A problem more specific 13
Table 1.1 Objectives, methods, data-sources, number of patients included and outcomes of published capture-recapture studies of tuberculosis Researchers Objective Method Data-source Nobs a Outcome 150 The annual incidence of TB was estimated at 34.8/100 000 population (95%CId 31.8-39.9%), resulting in a completeness of the statutory notification system of 45% (95%CI 40-50%) 1. Statutory notification system 2. Hospital microbiology register Two-source CRCc model To determine the incidence of pulmonary TBb within Health Area 15 of Valencia, Spain, Ferrer Evangelista 1990-1993 et al 71 348 The completeness of the notifiable disease surveillance system and microbiological register were estimated at 51.3% and 80.7% respectively. Both registers combined captured 90.6% of the TB cases 1. Notifiable disease surveillance system 2. Microbiological records Two-source CRC model To evaluate the respiratory TB surveillance system in the province of Seville, Spain, in Iváñez Gimeno 1996. et al 72 121 The average annual incidence of pulmonary TB per 100 000 inhabitants was estimated at 364 (95%CI 293-528) and completeness of Ministry of Health reports at 37% (95%CI 25-46%) 1. Interviews with local residents 2. Local laboratory sputum smear records Two-source CRC model To estimate the incidence of pulmonary TB in the shantytown Las Pampas de San Juan de Sanghavi et al73 Miraflores, Peru, 1989-1993 244 The number of TB patients was estimated at 272 and underreporting by the notifiable disease surveillance system at 22.4% 1. Notifiable disease surveillance system 2. Microbiological records Two-source CRC model To estimate the number of TB cases in the province of Huesca, Spain, 1995-1997 Pérez Ciorda et al74 473 The number of TB patients was estimated at 485 resulting in a case-ascertainment of 97.5%. Notifications, microbiological records and hospital in-patient discharge coding data identified 92.6%, 56.3% and 36.3% of the TB patients respectively 1. Notifications 2. Microbiological records 3. Hospital in-patient discharge coding data Three-source loglinear CRC model To determine the true number of TB cases in the catchment area of Liverpool Health Tocque et al65 Authority, United Kingdom, 1989-1996
Page 1 and 2: Capture-recapture Methods in Survei
Page 3 and 4: Colofon Capture-recapture methods i
Page 5 and 6: Promotiecommissie Promotor: Prof.dr
Page 8: Contents Page 1 Introduction 9 2 Me
Page 11 and 12: Chapter 1 1.1 Assessing completenes
Page 13: Chapter 1 94% among AIDS patients w
Page 17 and 18: Researchers Objective Method Data-s
Page 19 and 20: Chapter 1 source capture-recapture
Page 21 and 22: Chapter 1 32. Bradley BL, Kerr KM,
Page 24 and 25: 2 Methodology of capture-recapture
Page 26 and 27: Methodology of capture-recapture an
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Page 39 and 40: Chapter 3 3.1 Application of captur
Page 41 and 42: Table 3.1 Published capture-recaptu
Page 43 and 44: Disease Authors Objective Method Da
Page 49 and 50: Chapter 3 3.3 References 1. Hook EB
Page 51 and 52: Chapter 3 52. Reintjes R, Termorshu
Page 53 and 54: Chapter 4 Abstract The aim of this
Page 55 and 56: Chapter 4 Methods Nearly all Dutch
Page 57 and 58: Chapter 4 Table 4.2 The number of m
Page 59 and 60: Chapter 4 diagnosis. Other patients
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 4 stratify the population i
Page 63 and 64: Chapter 4 25. Lambeth, Southwark an
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Chapter 5 Abstract To estimate inci
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Chapter 5 patients. Capture-recaptu
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Chapter 5 Figure 5.1 Four regions o
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Chapter 5 Hospital records From 385
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Chapter 5 Table 5.1 Epidemiological
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Table 5.2 Number and proportion of
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Chapter 5 cautious about the associ
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Chapter 5 Incidence of community-ac
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Chapter 6 Abstract The aim of this
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Chapter 6 3. Hospitalised patients
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Chapter 6 Record-linkage of all 537
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Chapter 6 Figure 6.1 Schematic view
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Chapter 6 Table 6.2 Total and strat
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Chapter 6 administrative discrepanc
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Chapter 6 the patients, and complet
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7 Undetected burden of tuberculosis
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Introduction Underreporting of tube
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Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
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Table 7.1 Total and subset numbers
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Table 7.2 Capture-recapture estimat
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Chapter 8 Abstract In 1999 the Enha
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Chapter 8 bacteriological confirmat
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Chapter 8 Results Table 8.1 shows t
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Table 8.3 Annual and overall observ
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Table 8.4 Annual and overall estima
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Chapter 8 interaction however, i.e.
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Chapter 8 shows that observed under
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9 Estimating the coverage of tuberc
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Introduction Estimating targeted mo
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Estimating targeted mobile tubercul
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References Estimating targeted mobi
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10 Estimating infectious diseases i
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Introduction Estimating infectious
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Estimating infectious disease incid
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Study Disease and number of patient
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4. Gallay A, Vaillant V, Bouvet P,
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Table 10.3 Comparison of the variou
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Discussion Estimating infectious di
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Chapter 11 The aim of this thesis i
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Chapter 11 overestimation of the nu
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Chapter 11 clinicians to the Public
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Chapter 11 operation with the chest
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Chapter 11 of the proportion of fal
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Chapter 11 Question 3: What is the
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Chapter 11 11.2 Some findings of th
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Chapter 11 • To improve timelines
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Summary Summary Surveillance is an
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Summary linkage of notification and
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Samenvatting Samenvatting Surveilla
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Samenvatting subgroepen binnen de b
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements W
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Curriculum vitae Rob van Hest was b
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Publications This thesis Van Hest N
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