Rob van Hest Capture-recapture Methods in Surveillance - RePub ...

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Underreporting of tuberculosis in the Netherlands demonstrated that 80% (143/179) of the local NTM isolates could be found in the national NTM register. Second, patients later diagnosed with disease other than tuberculosis or NTM were identified and excluded through record-linkage with a dataset of such patients secondary to the Netherlands Tuberculosis Register (NTR), an extensive system of voluntary reporting by tuberculosis physicians. 18 Third, non-culture-confirmed patients possibly diagnosed by histopathology examination were verified through the Pathological Anatomy Laboratory Computerised Archive (PALGA), the nation-wide network and registry of histopathology and cytopathology results in the Netherlands. Excerpts of the histopathology reports of linked patients were reviewed by a pathologist and cases with inconsistent results discarded. Finally, the total set of linked tuberculosis registers was linked to the NTR for verification of the remaining non-culture-confirmed tuberculosis patients and collection of additional variables for cases in any of the linked registers: nationality (Dutch, non-Dutch), location of tuberculosis (pulmonary, extrapulmonary) and infectiousness (sputum smear-positive, sputum smear-negative). Although more complete in data the NTR was expected to have a complete overlap with the notification register (both registers are maintained by the same tuberculosis physicians) and was deliberately used for the purpose of validation of the conventional notification, laboratory and hospital tuberculosis registers. 3 Case-ascertainment, capture-recapture analysis and observed and estimated register-specific coverage rates The total and stratified observed register-specific coverage rates are defined as the number of tuberculosis patients in each register divided by the total or stratified caseascertainment, expressed as percentage. The total number of unobserved tuberculosis cases was estimated on the basis of the cross-validated distribution of the observed cases over the Notification, Laboratory and Hospital registers. The independence of registers and other assumptions underlying capture-recapture analysis have been described previously. 10 Interdependencies between the three tuberculosis registers are probable, causing possible bias in two-source capturerecapture estimates. Three-source log-linear capture-recapture analysis was employed to take possible interdependencies into account. 12,15 Estimated register-specific coverage rates are defined as the number of tuberculosis patients in each register divided by the estimated total number of tuberculosis patients by capture-recapture analysis. Results Table 6.1 shows the initial number of cases, the number of cases excluded from the study before and after record-linkage and the final number of cases in the three tuberculosis registers in the Netherlands in 1998. The hospital admission of 12 cases in 1997 and 8 cases in 1999, all notified in 1998, was included in the data. Among the 295 near-links between the Notification and Laboratory registers, the “trusted third party” confirmed 267 candidate-pairs as true links. Among the confirmed links, 133 candidate-pairs had administrative discrepancies, predominantly (63.8%) in the postal code. 83
Chapter 6 Record-linkage of all 537 non-culture-confirmed cases to the NTM register and the subset of the NTR revealed that despite NTM infection or any other diagnosis than tuberculosis 26 out of 426 non-culture-confirmed cases on the Notification register (6.1%) were not de-notified and 25 out of 217 non-culture-confirmed cases on the Hospital register (11.5%) were still recorded with an ICD-9 tuberculosis code. Figure 6.1 shows the distribution of the final number of 1499 cases over the different tuberculosis registers. Of the 1006 culture-confirmed tuberculosis patients 108 patients (10.7%) could not be found in the Notification register. Verification through PALGA of the remaining 493 non-culture-confirmed cases in the linked registers identified 117 patients (23.7%) with a histopathology report consistent with active tuberculosis. Verification through the NTR identified 385 patients (78.1%). Both exercises combined verified 407 patients (82.6%). Figure 6.2 shows the distribution of the PALGA and NTR verified non-culture-confirmed cases over the three linked tuberculosis registers. In total 94.3% (1413/1499) of all patients were cultureconfirmed or verified but only 37.6% (35/93) of the unlinked hospital patients. Record-linkage of patients observed in any of the three linked tuberculosis registers with the NTR resulted in a coverage of 91.1%, 84.7% and 78.9% of the Notification, Laboratory and Hospital registers respectively. Of the 108 culture-confirmed tuberculosis patients not found in the Notification register 38 (35%) were voluntarily reported to the NTR. The total and stratified observed number of tuberculosis patients and registerspecific coverage rates of the three tuberculosis registers are shown in Table 6.2. Observed completeness of notification, culture-confirmation and hospitalisation is 86.6%, 67.1% and 40.7% respectively. The completeness of the Notification register is consistent over the strata, with non-culture-confirmed patients least likely to be notified. The Laboratory and Hospital registers have higher proportions of sputum smear-positive patients and both registers show a trend of culture-confirmation and hospitalisation increasing with age. If only culture-confirmed or otherwise verified cases were included the verified observed completeness of the Notification register would be 89.9%. The observed and verified observed under-notification is 13.4% and 10.1% respectively. When all 58 non-verified unlinked hospital cases are considered false-positive and the 38 culture-confirmed patients reported to the NTR considered notified, the adjusted observed under-notification is 7.3% (105/1441). Based on the Akaike Information Criterion the log-linear capture-recapture procedure initially selected the saturated model (see Discussion) as the best-fitting model which estimated 554 unobserved tuberculosis cases, resulting in an estimated total number of 2053 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1871-2443) tuberculosis cases. This translates into an estimated completeness of case-ascertainment of 73.0% (1499/2053) and estimated register-specific coverage rates of 63.2%, 49.0% and 29.7% for the Notification, Laboratory and Hospital registers respectively. The estimated undernotification is 36.8% (95%CI 30.6-46.9%). 84
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Capture-recapture Methods in Survei
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Colofon Capture-recapture methods i
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Promotiecommissie Promotor: Prof.dr
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Contents Page 1 Introduction 9 2 Me
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Chapter 1 1.1 Assessing completenes
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Chapter 1 94% among AIDS patients w
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Table 1.1 Objectives, methods, data
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Researchers Objective Method Data-s
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Chapter 1 source capture-recapture
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Chapter 1 32. Bradley BL, Kerr KM,
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2 Methodology of capture-recapture
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Methodology of capture-recapture an
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Page 34 and 35: Methodology of capture-recapture an
Page 36: Methodology of capture-recapture an
Page 39 and 40: Chapter 3 3.1 Application of captur
Page 41 and 42: Table 3.1 Published capture-recaptu
Page 43 and 44: Disease Authors Objective Method Da
Page 49 and 50: Chapter 3 3.3 References 1. Hook EB
Page 51 and 52: Chapter 3 52. Reintjes R, Termorshu
Page 53 and 54: Chapter 4 Abstract The aim of this
Page 55 and 56: Chapter 4 Methods Nearly all Dutch
Page 57 and 58: Chapter 4 Table 4.2 The number of m
Page 59 and 60: Chapter 4 diagnosis. Other patients
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 4 stratify the population i
Page 63 and 64: Chapter 4 25. Lambeth, Southwark an
Page 65 and 66: Chapter 5 Abstract To estimate inci
Page 67 and 68: Chapter 5 patients. Capture-recaptu
Page 69 and 70: Chapter 5 Figure 5.1 Four regions o
Page 71 and 72: Chapter 5 Hospital records From 385
Page 73 and 74: Chapter 5 Table 5.1 Epidemiological
Page 75 and 76: Table 5.2 Number and proportion of
Page 77 and 78: Chapter 5 cautious about the associ
Page 79 and 80: Chapter 5 Incidence of community-ac
Page 81 and 82: Chapter 6 Abstract The aim of this
Page 83: Chapter 6 3. Hospitalised patients
Page 87 and 88: Chapter 6 Figure 6.1 Schematic view
Page 89 and 90: Chapter 6 Table 6.2 Total and strat
Page 91 and 92: Chapter 6 administrative discrepanc
Page 93 and 94: Chapter 6 the patients, and complet
Page 96 and 97: 7 Undetected burden of tuberculosis
Page 98 and 99: Introduction Underreporting of tube
Page 100 and 101: Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 102 and 103: Table 7.1 Total and subset numbers
Page 104 and 105: Table 7.2 Capture-recapture estimat
Page 106 and 107: Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 108: Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 111 and 112: Chapter 8 Abstract In 1999 the Enha
Page 113 and 114: Chapter 8 bacteriological confirmat
Page 115 and 116: Chapter 8 Results Table 8.1 shows t
Page 117 and 118: Table 8.3 Annual and overall observ
Page 119 and 120: Table 8.4 Annual and overall estima
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 8 interaction however, i.e.
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 8 shows that observed under
Page 126 and 127: 9 Estimating the coverage of tuberc
Page 128 and 129: Introduction Estimating targeted mo
Page 130 and 131: Estimating targeted mobile tubercul
Page 132 and 133: Estimating targeted mobile tubercul
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Estimating targeted mobile tubercul
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References Estimating targeted mobi
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10 Estimating infectious diseases i
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Introduction Estimating infectious
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Estimating infectious disease incid
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Study Disease and number of patient
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4. Gallay A, Vaillant V, Bouvet P,
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Table 10.3 Comparison of the variou
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Discussion Estimating infectious di
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Chapter 11 The aim of this thesis i
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Chapter 11 overestimation of the nu
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Chapter 11 clinicians to the Public
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Chapter 11 operation with the chest
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Chapter 11 of the proportion of fal
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Chapter 11 Question 3: What is the
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Chapter 11 11.2 Some findings of th
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Chapter 11 • To improve timelines
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Summary Summary Surveillance is an
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Summary linkage of notification and
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Samenvatting Samenvatting Surveilla
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Samenvatting subgroepen binnen de b
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements W
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Curriculum vitae Rob van Hest was b
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Publications This thesis Van Hest N
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