Rob van Hest Capture-recapture Methods in Surveillance - RePub ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

General discussion and hence positive predictive value, will often already considerably improve the knowledge of the number of patients and infectious disease incidence rates, as well as the completeness of information on specific demographic, diagnostic or epidemiological variables. An example of an infectious disease surveillance system that routinely links notification data with laboratory data is the ETS in England and Wales. This type of record-linkage should ideally be web-based for a timely reflection of trends. An example of a web-based notification system is OSIRIS in the Netherlands but this system is not linked to laboratory reports. 13 For improving quality, completeness and timeliness of infectious disease surveillance, a web-based infectious disease surveillance system that routinely links notification data with laboratory data could essentially fulfil the qualities once attributed to capture-recapture analysis. 11.3 Conclusions and recommendations Conclusions • Infectious disease incidence capture-recapture analysis requires adequate knowledge of disease, patients and registrations. • In capture-recapture analysis small variations in the quality of data and record-linkage can lead to highly variable outcomes. Therefore previous successful infectious disease capture-recapture studies cannot be repeated uncritically. • Hospital episode statistics often contain many false-positive records, which, when not identified, lead to biased capture-recapture estimates. • When categorical covariates associated with the probability of capture in an infectious disease register are present, covariate capture-recapture analysis can reduce bias as a result of heterogeneity. • In the absence of a gold standard, truncated models can be used as a heuristic tool to identify possible failure in log-linear models, especially when saturated models are selected. Recommendations • Infectious diseases capture-recapture studies should be performed with a multidisciplinary team including public health physicians, clinicians, statisticians and data managers. • For more reliable record-linkage of notifiable infectious disease registers the Dutch Infectious Disease Act 1999 should be amended and provide recording the date of birth of the patients instead of the year of birth. 171
Chapter 11 • To improve timeliness and completeness of infectious disease surveillance, webbased record-linkage between notifications and positive laboratory results should be implemented. • The value of truncated models as an alternative to or for cross-validation of capturerecapture analysis for estimating infectious disease incidence should be further explored. 11.4 References 1. LaPorte RE. Assessing the human condition: capture-recapture techniques. BMJ 1994; 308: 5-6. 2. Joseph CA. Legionnaires’disease in Europe 2000-2002. Epidemiol Infect 2004; 132: 417-24. 3. Infectious Disease Act 7 July 1998. Statute Book 394. The Hague: Netherlands Government Printing Press, 1998. 4. Klein S, Bosman A. Completeness of malaria notification in the Netherlands 1995-2003 assessed by capture-recapture method. Euro Surveill 2005; 10: 244-6. 5. Jarvis SN, Lowe PL, Avery A, Levene S, Cormack RM. Children are not goldfish-mark/recapture techniques and their application to injury data. Inj Prev 2000; 6: 46-50. 6. Nardone A, Decludt B, Jarraud S, Etienne J, Hubert B, Infuso A, Gallay A, Desenclos JC. Repeat capturerecapture studies as part of the evaluation of the surveillance of Legionnaires' disease in France. Epidemiol Infect 2003; 131: 647-54. 7. Braun JJ, de Graaff CS, de Goey, Zwinderman AH, Petit PL. [Community-acquired pneumonia: pathogens and course in patients admitted to a general hospital]. Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd 2004; 148: 836-40. 8. Tocque K, Bellis MA, Beeching NJ, Davies PD. Capture-recapture as a method of determining the completeness of tuberculosis notifications. Commun Dis Public Health 2001; 4: 141-3. 9. Baussano I, Bugiani M, Gregori D, Van Hest R, Borracino A, Raso R, Merletti F. Undetected burden of tuberculosis in a low-prevalence area. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 2006; 10: 415-21. 10. Davies AG, Cormack RM, Richardson AM. Estimation of injecting drug users in the City of Edinburgh, Scotland, and number infected with human immunodeficiency virus. Int J Epidemiol 1999; 28: 117-21. 11. Hook EB, Regal RR. Capture-recapture methods in epidemiology: methods and limitations. Epidemiol Rev 1995; 17: 243-64. 12. Regal RR, Hook EB. Marginal versus conditional versus structural source models: a rationale for an alternative to log-linear methods for capture-recapture estimates. Stat Med 1998; 17: 69-74. 13. Hook EB, Regal RR. Accuracy of alternatives to capture-recapture estimates of disease frequency: internal validity analysis of data from five sources. Am J Epidemiol 2000; 152: 771-9. 14. Den Boer JW, Friesema IH, Hooi JD. [Reported cases of Legionnaires’ disease in the Netherlands, 1987- 2000]. Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd 2002; 46: 315-20. 15. Van Loenhout-Rooijackers JH, Leufkens HG, Hekster YA, Kalisvaart NA. Pyrazinamide use as a method to estimate underreporting of tuberculosis. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 2001; 5: 1156-60. 16. World Health Organization. Global Tuberculosis Control: Surveillance, Planning, Financing. WHO Report 2003. Geneva: WHO, 2003. 17. Moro ML, Malfait P, Salamina G, D'Amato S. [Tuberculosis in Italy: available data and open questions]. Epidemiol Prev 1999; 23: 27-36. 18. Buiatti E, Acciai S, Ragni P, Tortoli E, Barbieri A, Cravedi B, Santini MG. [The quantification of tuberculous disease in an Italian area and the estimation of underreporting by means of record linkage]. Epidemiol Prev 1998; 22: 237-41. 19. Rose AM, Gatto AJ, Watson JM. Recent increases in tuberculosis notifications in England and Wales – real or artefact? J Public Health Med 2002: 24: 136-7. 20. Evans MR. Is tuberculosis taken seriously in the United Kingdom? BMJ 1995; 311: 1483-5. 21. Pillaye J, Clarke A. An evaluation of completeness of tuberculosis notification in the United Kingdom. BMC Public Health 2003; 1: 31. 22. De Greeff SC, Spanjaard L, Dankert J, Hoebe CJ, Nagelkerke N, De Melker HE. Underreporting of meningococcal disease incidence in the Netherlands: Results from a capture-recapture analysis based on three registration sources with correction for false-positive diagnoses. Eur J Epidemiol 2006; 21: 315-21. 23. Hay G. The selection from multiple data sources in epidemiological capture-recapture studies. Statistician 1997; 46: 515-20. 172
Page 1 and 2:
Capture-recapture Methods in Survei
Page 3 and 4:
Colofon Capture-recapture methods i
Page 5 and 6:
Promotiecommissie Promotor: Prof.dr
Page 8:
Contents Page 1 Introduction 9 2 Me
Page 11 and 12:
Chapter 1 1.1 Assessing completenes
Page 13 and 14:
Chapter 1 94% among AIDS patients w
Page 15 and 16:
Table 1.1 Objectives, methods, data
Page 17 and 18:
Researchers Objective Method Data-s
Page 19 and 20:
Chapter 1 source capture-recapture
Page 21 and 22:
Chapter 1 32. Bradley BL, Kerr KM,
Page 24 and 25:
2 Methodology of capture-recapture
Page 26 and 27:
Methodology of capture-recapture an
Page 28 and 29:
Page 30 and 31:
Page 32 and 33:
Page 34 and 35:
Page 36:
Page 39 and 40:
Chapter 3 3.1 Application of captur
Page 41 and 42:
Table 3.1 Published capture-recaptu
Page 43 and 44:
Disease Authors Objective Method Da
Page 45 and 46:
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Chapter 3 3.3 References 1. Hook EB
Page 51 and 52:
Chapter 3 52. Reintjes R, Termorshu
Page 53 and 54:
Chapter 4 Abstract The aim of this
Page 55 and 56:
Chapter 4 Methods Nearly all Dutch
Page 57 and 58:
Chapter 4 Table 4.2 The number of m
Page 59 and 60:
Chapter 4 diagnosis. Other patients
Page 61 and 62:
Chapter 4 stratify the population i
Page 63 and 64:
Chapter 4 25. Lambeth, Southwark an
Page 65 and 66:
Chapter 5 Abstract To estimate inci
Page 67 and 68:
Chapter 5 patients. Capture-recaptu
Page 69 and 70:
Chapter 5 Figure 5.1 Four regions o
Page 71 and 72:
Chapter 5 Hospital records From 385
Page 73 and 74:
Chapter 5 Table 5.1 Epidemiological
Page 75 and 76:
Table 5.2 Number and proportion of
Page 77 and 78:
Chapter 5 cautious about the associ
Page 79 and 80:
Chapter 5 Incidence of community-ac
Page 81 and 82:
Chapter 6 Abstract The aim of this
Page 83 and 84:
Chapter 6 3. Hospitalised patients
Page 85 and 86:
Chapter 6 Record-linkage of all 537
Page 87 and 88:
Chapter 6 Figure 6.1 Schematic view
Page 89 and 90:
Chapter 6 Table 6.2 Total and strat
Page 91 and 92:
Chapter 6 administrative discrepanc
Page 93 and 94:
Chapter 6 the patients, and complet
Page 96 and 97:
7 Undetected burden of tuberculosis
Page 98 and 99:
Introduction Underreporting of tube
Page 100 and 101:
Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 102 and 103:
Table 7.1 Total and subset numbers
Page 104 and 105:
Table 7.2 Capture-recapture estimat
Page 106 and 107:
Page 108:
Page 111 and 112:
Chapter 8 Abstract In 1999 the Enha
Page 113 and 114:
Chapter 8 bacteriological confirmat
Page 115 and 116:
Chapter 8 Results Table 8.1 shows t
Page 117 and 118:
Table 8.3 Annual and overall observ
Page 119 and 120:
Table 8.4 Annual and overall estima
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 8 interaction however, i.e.
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 8 shows that observed under
Page 126 and 127: 9 Estimating the coverage of tuberc
Page 128 and 129: Introduction Estimating targeted mo
Page 130 and 131: Estimating targeted mobile tubercul
Page 136 and 137: References Estimating targeted mobi
Page 138 and 139: 10 Estimating infectious diseases i
Page 140 and 141: Introduction Estimating infectious
Page 142 and 143: Estimating infectious disease incid
Page 144 and 145: Study Disease and number of patient
Page 146 and 147: 4. Gallay A, Vaillant V, Bouvet P,
Page 148 and 149: Table 10.3 Comparison of the variou
Page 150 and 151: Discussion Estimating infectious di
Page 156: Estimating infectious disease incid
Page 159 and 160: Chapter 11 The aim of this thesis i
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 11 overestimation of the nu
Page 163 and 164: Chapter 11 clinicians to the Public
Page 165 and 166: Chapter 11 operation with the chest
Page 167 and 168: Chapter 11 of the proportion of fal
Page 169 and 170: Chapter 11 Question 3: What is the
Page 171: Chapter 11 11.2 Some findings of th
Page 176 and 177: Summary Summary Surveillance is an
Page 178 and 179: Summary linkage of notification and
Page 180 and 181: Samenvatting Samenvatting Surveilla
Page 182 and 183: Samenvatting subgroepen binnen de b
Page 184 and 185: Acknowledgements Acknowledgements W
Page 186 and 187: Curriculum vitae Rob van Hest was b
Page 188 and 189: Publications This thesis Van Hest N
show all

Rob van Hest Capture-recapture Methods in Surveillance - RePub ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?