Rob van Hest Capture-recapture Methods in Surveillance - RePub ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Estimating infectious disease incidence estimates finding their way into the scientific literature. The role of the f 1/f 2 ratio in the agreement or disagreement between three-source log-linear capture-recapture and truncated model estimates for the number of infectious disease patients, especially when a parsimonious log-linear model is selected, should be subject of further mathematical or statistical studies. Appendix Equations for the truncated population estimators Truncated binomial model: est(N) = obs(N) + (f 1) 2 /3f 2 Truncated Poisson mixture model: est(N) = obs(N)/[1–exp(-2f 2 /f 1)] Truncated Poisson heterogeneity model: est(N) = obs(N) + (f1) 2 /2f 2 Equiprobability If the truncated binomial model is true, i.e. if the sources are independent and equiprobable with probability of capturing any case = p, our estimator (f1) 2 /3f2 is correct in the sense that the expected number of unlisted cases is given by 3 ( Ef 1 ) E f 0 Nq = 3Ef 2 2 . = (1) If we introduce a small departure from equiprobability so that the list probabilities are (p − h, p, p + h) instead of (p, p, p), the estimation error can be defined as ( Ef 1 ) g( h, p) = − Ef 0. (2) 3Ef Differentiating with respect to h, we find that g 2 2 ∂g ∂ g 2N( 1 − p) 0, p) = ( 0, p) = 0; ( 0, p) = , (3) 2 ∂h ∂h 3p ( 2 so that we overestimate, at least for small h. The same happens if we consider an asymmetrical departure, (p − h, p, p). In that case, and there is again an overestimate. g 2 ∂g ∂ g 2N( 1 − p) 0, p) = ( 0, p) = 0; ( 0, p) = , (4) 2 ∂h ∂h 9p ( 2 2 153
Chapter 10 References 1. International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting. Capture-recapture and multiplerecord estimation I: History and theoretical development. Am J Epidemiol 1995; 142: 1047-58. 2. LaPorte RE, Dearwater SR, Chang YF, Songer TJ, Aaron DJ, Anderson RL, Olsen T. Efficiency and accuracy of disease monitoring systems: application of capture-recapture methods to injury monitoring. Am J Epidemiol 1995; 15; 142: 1069-77. 3. Orton H, Richard R, Miller L. Using active medical record review and capture-recapture methods to investigate the prevalence of Down Syndrome among live-born infants in Colorado. Teratology 2001; 64: S14-9. 4. EURODIAB ACE Study Group. Variation and trends in incidence of childhood diabetes in Europe. Lancet 2000; 355: 873-6. 5. McClish D, Penbertthy L. Using Medicare data to estimate the number of cases missed by a cancer registry: a 3-source capture-recapture model. Med Care 2004; 42: 1111-6. 6. Tilling K, Sterne JA, Wolfe CD. Estimation of the incidence of stroke using a capture-recapture model including covariates. Int J Epidemiol 2001; 30: 1351-9. 7. Mahr A, Guillevin L, Poisonnet M, Avme S. Prevalences of polyarteritis nodosa, microscopic polyangiitis, Wegener's granulomatosis, and Churg-Strauss syndrome in a French urban multiethnic population in 2000: a capture-recapture estimate. Arthritis Rheum 2004; 51: 92-9. 8. Fienberg SE. The multiple-recapture census for closed populations and the 2k incomplete contingency table. Biometrika 1972; 59: 591-603. 9. Bishop YM, Fienberg SE, Holland PW. Discrete Multivariate Analysis. Cambridge: MIT-Press, 1975. 10. Hook EB, Regal RR. Capture-recapture methods in epidemiology: methods and limitations. Epidemiol Rev 1995; 17: 243-63. 11. International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting. Capture-recapture and multiplerecord estimation II: Applications in human diseases. Am J Epidemiol 1995; 142: 1059-68. 12. Desenclos JC, Hubert B. Limitations to the universal use of capture-recapture methods. Int J Epidemiol 1994; 23: 1322-3. 13. Brenner H. Use and limitations of the capture-recapture method in disease monitoring with two dependent sources. Epidemiology 1995; 6: 42-8. 14. Cormack RM. Problems with using capture-recapture in epidemiology: an example of a measles epidemic. J Clin Epidemiol 1999; 52: 909-14. 15. Papoz L, Balkau B, Lellouch J. Case counting in epidemiology: limitations of methods based on multiple data sources. Int J Epidemiol 1999; 25: 474-8. 16. Hook EB, Regal RR. Accuracy of alternative approaches to capture-recapture estimates of disease frequency: internal validity analysis of data from five sources. Am J Epidemiol 2000; 152: 771-9. 17. Jarvis SN, Lowe PL, Avery A, Levene S, Cormack RM. Children are not goldfish-mark/recapture techniques and their application to injury data. Inj Prev 2000; 6: 46-50. 18. Tilling K. Capture-recapture methods-useful or misleading? Int J Epidemiol 2001; 30: 12-4. 19. Chao A, Tsay PK, Lin SH, Shau WY, Chao DY. The applications of capture-recapture models to epidemiological data. Stat Med 2001; 20: 3123-57. 20. Van Hest NA, Smit F, Baars HW, De Vries G, De Haas PE, Westenened PJ, Nagelkerke NJ, Richardus JH. Completeness of notification of tuberculosis in the Netherlands: how reliable is record-linkage and capture-recapture analysis? Epidemiol Infect 2006; Published online: 7 December 2006. doi:10.1017/S0950268806007540 21. Van Hest NA, Smit F, Verhave JP. Improving malaria notification in the Netherlands: results from a capture-recapture study. Epidemiol Infect 2002; 129: 371-7. 22. Zelterman D. Robust estimation in truncated discrete distributions with application to capture-recapture experiments. J Stat Plann Inf 1988; 18: 225-37. 23. Chao A. Estimating the population size for capture-recapture data with unequal catchability. Biometrics 1987; 43: 783-91. 24. Chao A. Estimating animal abundance with capture frequency data. J Wildl Manage 1988; 52: 295-300. 25. Hook EB, Regal RR. Validity of Bernouilli census, log-linear and truncated binomial models for correcting for underestimates in prevalence studies. Am J Epidemiol 1982; 116: 168-76. 26. Van der Heijden PG, Cruyff MJ, Van Houwelingen, H. Estimating the size of a criminal population from police registrations using the truncated Poisson regression model. Stat Neerl 2003; 57: 289-304. 27. Smit F, Toet J, Van der Heijden PG. Estimating the number of opiate users in Rotterdam using statistical models for incomplete count data. In: Hay G, McKeganey N, Birks E, eds. Final report EMCDDA project Methodological Pilot Study of Local Level Prevalence Estimates. Lisbon: EMCDDA, 1997: pp 47-66. 154
Page 1 and 2:
Capture-recapture Methods in Survei
Page 3 and 4:
Colofon Capture-recapture methods i
Page 5 and 6:
Promotiecommissie Promotor: Prof.dr
Page 8:
Contents Page 1 Introduction 9 2 Me
Page 11 and 12:
Chapter 1 1.1 Assessing completenes
Page 13 and 14:
Chapter 1 94% among AIDS patients w
Page 15 and 16:
Table 1.1 Objectives, methods, data
Page 17 and 18:
Researchers Objective Method Data-s
Page 19 and 20:
Chapter 1 source capture-recapture
Page 21 and 22:
Chapter 1 32. Bradley BL, Kerr KM,
Page 24 and 25:
2 Methodology of capture-recapture
Page 26 and 27:
Methodology of capture-recapture an
Page 28 and 29:
Page 30 and 31:
Page 32 and 33:
Page 34 and 35:
Page 36:
Page 39 and 40:
Chapter 3 3.1 Application of captur
Page 41 and 42:
Table 3.1 Published capture-recaptu
Page 43 and 44:
Disease Authors Objective Method Da
Page 45 and 46:
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Chapter 3 3.3 References 1. Hook EB
Page 51 and 52:
Chapter 3 52. Reintjes R, Termorshu
Page 53 and 54:
Chapter 4 Abstract The aim of this
Page 55 and 56:
Chapter 4 Methods Nearly all Dutch
Page 57 and 58:
Chapter 4 Table 4.2 The number of m
Page 59 and 60:
Chapter 4 diagnosis. Other patients
Page 61 and 62:
Chapter 4 stratify the population i
Page 63 and 64:
Chapter 4 25. Lambeth, Southwark an
Page 65 and 66:
Chapter 5 Abstract To estimate inci
Page 67 and 68:
Chapter 5 patients. Capture-recaptu
Page 69 and 70:
Chapter 5 Figure 5.1 Four regions o
Page 71 and 72:
Chapter 5 Hospital records From 385
Page 73 and 74:
Chapter 5 Table 5.1 Epidemiological
Page 75 and 76:
Table 5.2 Number and proportion of
Page 77 and 78:
Chapter 5 cautious about the associ
Page 79 and 80:
Chapter 5 Incidence of community-ac
Page 81 and 82:
Chapter 6 Abstract The aim of this
Page 83 and 84:
Chapter 6 3. Hospitalised patients
Page 85 and 86:
Chapter 6 Record-linkage of all 537
Page 87 and 88:
Chapter 6 Figure 6.1 Schematic view
Page 89 and 90:
Chapter 6 Table 6.2 Total and strat
Page 91 and 92:
Chapter 6 administrative discrepanc
Page 93 and 94:
Chapter 6 the patients, and complet
Page 96 and 97:
7 Undetected burden of tuberculosis
Page 98 and 99:
Introduction Underreporting of tube
Page 100 and 101:
Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 102 and 103:
Table 7.1 Total and subset numbers
Page 104 and 105: Table 7.2 Capture-recapture estimat
Page 106 and 107: Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 108: Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 111 and 112: Chapter 8 Abstract In 1999 the Enha
Page 113 and 114: Chapter 8 bacteriological confirmat
Page 115 and 116: Chapter 8 Results Table 8.1 shows t
Page 117 and 118: Table 8.3 Annual and overall observ
Page 119 and 120: Table 8.4 Annual and overall estima
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 8 interaction however, i.e.
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 8 shows that observed under
Page 126 and 127: 9 Estimating the coverage of tuberc
Page 128 and 129: Introduction Estimating targeted mo
Page 130 and 131: Estimating targeted mobile tubercul
Page 136 and 137: References Estimating targeted mobi
Page 138 and 139: 10 Estimating infectious diseases i
Page 140 and 141: Introduction Estimating infectious
Page 142 and 143: Estimating infectious disease incid
Page 144 and 145: Study Disease and number of patient
Page 146 and 147: 4. Gallay A, Vaillant V, Bouvet P,
Page 148 and 149: Table 10.3 Comparison of the variou
Page 150 and 151: Discussion Estimating infectious di
Page 152 and 153: Estimating infectious disease incid
Page 156: Estimating infectious disease incid
Page 159 and 160: Chapter 11 The aim of this thesis i
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 11 overestimation of the nu
Page 163 and 164: Chapter 11 clinicians to the Public
Page 165 and 166: Chapter 11 operation with the chest
Page 167 and 168: Chapter 11 of the proportion of fal
Page 169 and 170: Chapter 11 Question 3: What is the
Page 171 and 172: Chapter 11 11.2 Some findings of th
Page 173 and 174: Chapter 11 • To improve timelines
Page 176 and 177: Summary Summary Surveillance is an
Page 178 and 179: Summary linkage of notification and
Page 180 and 181: Samenvatting Samenvatting Surveilla
Page 182 and 183: Samenvatting subgroepen binnen de b
Page 184 and 185: Acknowledgements Acknowledgements W
Page 186 and 187: Curriculum vitae Rob van Hest was b
Page 188 and 189: Publications This thesis Van Hest N
show all

Rob van Hest Capture-recapture Methods in Surveillance - RePub ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?