Rob van Hest Capture-recapture Methods in Surveillance - RePub ...

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Summary linkage of notification and laboratory registers, as performed in ETS, improves the accuracy of surveillance data as well as the completeness of case-ascertainment of tuberculosis. The validity of capture-recapture analysis, especially when the saturated model is selected, and truncated population estimation models, in the context of infectious disease surveillance, should be further examined. In the context of the third research question of this thesis in Chapter 9 we estimate the coverage of a periodic radiological mobile tuberculosis screening programme among illicit drug users and homeless persons in Rotterdam, using truncated population estimation models. We extracted the total and annual number and frequency counts of chest X-rays taken in this screening programme from a single data source. According to the two truncated models used, the tuberculosis screening programme reached approximately two-third of the estimated target population at least once per year and the coverage of the intended aim, at least two chest X-rays per person per year, was estimated at approximately 23%. We conclude that truncated models can be used relatively easily on available single source routine data to estimate the coverage of tuberculosis screening among illicit drug users and homeless persons. In Chapter 10 we re-examine nineteen datasets of published and current three-source log-linear model capture-recapture studies on infectious disease incidence with three truncated models for incomplete count data: a binomial model, a Poisson mixture model and a Poisson heterogeneity model. Specific attention was given to the ratio between the number of clients registered once (f1) and twice (f2) and the kind of log-linear model selected. We discuss the (dis)agreement between the various estimates and possible violation of the underlying assumptions, especially the equiprobability assumption. We conclude that for estimating infectious disease incidence independent and parsimonious three-source log-linear capture-recapture models are preferable but truncated models can be used as a heuristic tool to identify possible failure in the log-linear model, especially when saturated models produce unexpectedly high and implausible estimates. The General Discussion in Chapter 11 reviews the research questions and the results of the studies in this thesis. It discusses aspects of the feasibility and validity of three-source log-linear capture-recapture analysis and related truncated models for estimating the incidence of tuberculosis and other infectious diseases. The conclusions and recommendations that follow from the research in this thesis are formulated and are described below. Conclusions • Infectious disease incidence capture-recapture analysis requires adequate knowledge of disease, patients and registrations. • In capture-recapture analysis small variations in the quality of data and record-linkage can lead to highly variable outcomes. • Hospital episode statistics often contain many false-positive records, leading to biased capture-recapture estimates. 177
Summary • When categorical covariates associated with the probability of capture in an infectious disease register are present, covariate capture-recapture analysis can reduce bias as a result of heterogeneity. • Truncated models can be used as a heuristic tool to identify possible failure in loglinear models, especially when saturated models are selected. Recommendations • Infectious diseases capture-recapture studies should be performed with a multidisciplinary team. • For more reliable record-linkage of notifiable infectious disease registers the Dutch Infectious Disease Act 1999 should be amended and provide recording the date of birth of the patients. • To improve infectious disease surveillance, web-based record-linkage between notifications and positive laboratory results should be implemented. • The value of truncated models for cross-validation of capture-recapture analysis for estimating infectious disease incidence should be further explored. 178
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Capture-recapture Methods in Survei
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Colofon Capture-recapture methods i
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Promotiecommissie Promotor: Prof.dr
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Contents Page 1 Introduction 9 2 Me
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Chapter 1 1.1 Assessing completenes
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Chapter 1 94% among AIDS patients w
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Table 1.1 Objectives, methods, data
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Researchers Objective Method Data-s
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Chapter 1 source capture-recapture
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Chapter 1 32. Bradley BL, Kerr KM,
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2 Methodology of capture-recapture
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Methodology of capture-recapture an
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Chapter 3 3.1 Application of captur
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Table 3.1 Published capture-recaptu
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Disease Authors Objective Method Da
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Chapter 3 3.3 References 1. Hook EB
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Chapter 3 52. Reintjes R, Termorshu
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Chapter 4 Abstract The aim of this
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Chapter 4 Methods Nearly all Dutch
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Chapter 4 Table 4.2 The number of m
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Chapter 4 diagnosis. Other patients
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Chapter 4 stratify the population i
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Chapter 4 25. Lambeth, Southwark an
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Chapter 5 Abstract To estimate inci
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Chapter 5 patients. Capture-recaptu
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Chapter 5 Figure 5.1 Four regions o
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Chapter 5 Hospital records From 385
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Chapter 5 Table 5.1 Epidemiological
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Table 5.2 Number and proportion of
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Chapter 5 cautious about the associ
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Chapter 5 Incidence of community-ac
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Chapter 6 Abstract The aim of this
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Chapter 6 3. Hospitalised patients
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Chapter 6 Record-linkage of all 537
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Chapter 6 Figure 6.1 Schematic view
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Chapter 6 Table 6.2 Total and strat
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Chapter 6 administrative discrepanc
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Chapter 6 the patients, and complet
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7 Undetected burden of tuberculosis
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Introduction Underreporting of tube
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Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
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Table 7.1 Total and subset numbers
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Table 7.2 Capture-recapture estimat
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Chapter 8 Abstract In 1999 the Enha
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Chapter 8 bacteriological confirmat
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Chapter 8 Results Table 8.1 shows t
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Table 8.3 Annual and overall observ
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Table 8.4 Annual and overall estima
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Chapter 8 interaction however, i.e.
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Chapter 8 shows that observed under
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9 Estimating the coverage of tuberc
Page 128 and 129: Introduction Estimating targeted mo
Page 130 and 131: Estimating targeted mobile tubercul
Page 136 and 137: References Estimating targeted mobi
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Page 140 and 141: Introduction Estimating infectious
Page 142 and 143: Estimating infectious disease incid
Page 144 and 145: Study Disease and number of patient
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Page 150 and 151: Discussion Estimating infectious di
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Page 163 and 164: Chapter 11 clinicians to the Public
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Page 169 and 170: Chapter 11 Question 3: What is the
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Page 180 and 181: Samenvatting Samenvatting Surveilla
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Page 186 and 187: Curriculum vitae Rob van Hest was b
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