Rob van Hest Capture-recapture Methods in Surveillance - RePub ...

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Underreporting of tuberculosis in England source-specific coverage rates of notified, culture-confirmed and hospitalised tuberculosis cases were 84.1%, 54.3% and 41.6% respectively. Overall observed under-notification was 15.9%. The annual observed Notification-specific coverage rate increased from 81.8% to 86.7% between 1999 and 2002. The annual observed Laboratory and Hospital sourcespecific coverage rates were relatively stable over the study period. Table 8.4 shows the annual and overall estimated number of unobserved and total tuberculosis cases after capture-recapture analysis. For all estimates the saturated loglinear model was preferred based on the Akaike Information Criterion. 9,12 The overall estimated completeness of case-ascertainment was 66.7% (28 678/42 969). The overall estimated source-specific coverage rates of notified, culture-confirmed and hospitalised tuberculosis cases were 56.2%, 36.2% and 27.7% respectively. Overall estimated undernotification was 43.8%. The number of unobserved tuberculosis cases reduced every year. The annual estimated Notification-specific coverage rates between 1999 and 2002 were 48.1%, 51.1%, 59.0% and 66.5% respectively. None of the approximated confidence intervals include expected values of under-notification. We assessed that the interval between the administrative reporting dates used in this study instead of the date of actual disease onset could result in a capture-recapture over-estimate of the number of unobserved cases of 1.5% (model available from the authors). Discussion Main findings This study shows that record-linkage of tuberculosis data sources and cross-validation with additional tuberculosis-related datasets improves data accuracy as well as caseascertainment. For large tuberculosis data sources sophisticated record-linkage software is required and a population mixture model to estimate the proportion of false-positive tuberculosis cases among unlinked hospital cases. Since the introduction of Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance the annual observed completeness of notification has increased. Still 10.4% of the observed tuberculosis cases in this study were laboratory-confirmed but not notified. The overall observed under-notification of 15.9% is consistent with prior reports. The 43.8% overall under-notification estimated by a saturated log-linear capturerecapture model is highly inconsistent with prior reports and the validity needs further examination. 3,17 Under-notification Increasing completeness of Notification could be influenced by improved data accuracy and record-linkage over the years. An overall observed under-notification of 15.9% suggests that in England approximately 1100 tuberculosis patients may not be not notified annually of which the majority (2990/4534) is culture-confirmed, representing 10.4% of all tuberculosis cases. This reflects the most serious public health aspect of under-notification as culture-confirmed tuberculosis cases are assumed true cases and are potentially infectious. Failure to notify laboratory-confirmed cases jeopardises control measures, including contact-tracing. Capture-recapture studies in Italy and the Netherlands show proportions of not notified culture-confirmed tuberculosis cases of 117
Table 8.4 Annual and overall estimated number of unobserved and total tuberculosis cases by saturated log-linear capture-recapture model in England between 1999 and 2002 (after using a proportion of 28% of true tuberculosis cases known to Hospital only in the corrections for falsepositive cases). Estimated total tuberculosis cases by the saturated log-linear capture-recapture model (95%ACI) Estimated unobserved tuberculosis cases by the Year saturated log-linear capture-recapture model (95%ACI*) 1999 4756 (3717-6087) 11 539 (10 500-12 870) 2000 4294 (3411-5405) 11 433 (10 550-12 544) 2001 3387 (2634-4356) 10 742 (9989-11 711) 2002 2246 (1775-2843) 9647 (9176 –10 249) All 14 291 (12 682-16 105) 42 969 (41 360 –44 783) * ACI: approximate confidence interval Table 8.5 Annual and overall estimated number of unobserved and total tuberculosis cases by structural source model and truncated Poisson mixture model in England between 1999 and 2002 (after using a proportion of 28% of true tuberculosis cases known to Hospital only in the corrections for false-positive cases). Estimated total tuberculosis cases by the truncated Poisson mixture model (95%ACI) Estimated unobserved tuberculosis cases by the truncated Poisson Estimated total tuberculosis cases by the structural source model (95%ACI) Year Estimated unobserved tuberculosis cases by the structural source model (95%ACI*) mixture model (95%ACI) 1999 9151 (3921-12 186) 15 934 (10 704-18 969) 1319 (1137-1509) 8102 (7920- 8292) 2000 3737 (2588-4090) 10 876 (9727-11 229) 2019 (1802-2247) 9158 (8941-9386) 2001 2294 (2253-3389) 9649 (9608-10 774) 1256 (1074-1445) 8611 (8429- 8800) 2002 1487 (1337-1973) 8888 (8738-9374) 917 (748-1093) 8398 (8229-8574) All 13 628 (9186-15 563) 42 306 (37 864-44 241) 5417 (5217-5737) 34 149 (33 895- 34 415) * ACI: approximate confidence interval
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Capture-recapture Methods in Survei
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Colofon Capture-recapture methods i
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Promotiecommissie Promotor: Prof.dr
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Contents Page 1 Introduction 9 2 Me
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Chapter 1 1.1 Assessing completenes
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Chapter 1 94% among AIDS patients w
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Table 1.1 Objectives, methods, data
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Researchers Objective Method Data-s
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Chapter 1 source capture-recapture
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Chapter 1 32. Bradley BL, Kerr KM,
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2 Methodology of capture-recapture
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Methodology of capture-recapture an
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Chapter 3 3.1 Application of captur
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Table 3.1 Published capture-recaptu
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Disease Authors Objective Method Da
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Chapter 3 3.3 References 1. Hook EB
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Chapter 3 52. Reintjes R, Termorshu
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Chapter 4 Abstract The aim of this
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Chapter 4 Methods Nearly all Dutch
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Chapter 4 Table 4.2 The number of m
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Chapter 4 diagnosis. Other patients
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Chapter 4 stratify the population i
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Chapter 4 25. Lambeth, Southwark an
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Chapter 5 Abstract To estimate inci
Page 67 and 68: Chapter 5 patients. Capture-recaptu
Page 69 and 70: Chapter 5 Figure 5.1 Four regions o
Page 71 and 72: Chapter 5 Hospital records From 385
Page 73 and 74: Chapter 5 Table 5.1 Epidemiological
Page 75 and 76: Table 5.2 Number and proportion of
Page 77 and 78: Chapter 5 cautious about the associ
Page 79 and 80: Chapter 5 Incidence of community-ac
Page 81 and 82: Chapter 6 Abstract The aim of this
Page 83 and 84: Chapter 6 3. Hospitalised patients
Page 85 and 86: Chapter 6 Record-linkage of all 537
Page 87 and 88: Chapter 6 Figure 6.1 Schematic view
Page 89 and 90: Chapter 6 Table 6.2 Total and strat
Page 91 and 92: Chapter 6 administrative discrepanc
Page 93 and 94: Chapter 6 the patients, and complet
Page 96 and 97: 7 Undetected burden of tuberculosis
Page 98 and 99: Introduction Underreporting of tube
Page 100 and 101: Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 102 and 103: Table 7.1 Total and subset numbers
Page 104 and 105: Table 7.2 Capture-recapture estimat
Page 106 and 107: Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 108: Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
Page 111 and 112: Chapter 8 Abstract In 1999 the Enha
Page 113 and 114: Chapter 8 bacteriological confirmat
Page 115 and 116: Chapter 8 Results Table 8.1 shows t
Page 117: Table 8.3 Annual and overall observ
Page 121 and 122: Chapter 8 interaction however, i.e.
Page 123 and 124: Chapter 8 shows that observed under
Page 126 and 127: 9 Estimating the coverage of tuberc
Page 128 and 129: Introduction Estimating targeted mo
Page 130 and 131: Estimating targeted mobile tubercul
Page 136 and 137: References Estimating targeted mobi
Page 138 and 139: 10 Estimating infectious diseases i
Page 140 and 141: Introduction Estimating infectious
Page 142 and 143: Estimating infectious disease incid
Page 144 and 145: Study Disease and number of patient
Page 146 and 147: 4. Gallay A, Vaillant V, Bouvet P,
Page 148 and 149: Table 10.3 Comparison of the variou
Page 150 and 151: Discussion Estimating infectious di
Page 156: Estimating infectious disease incid
Page 159 and 160: Chapter 11 The aim of this thesis i
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 11 overestimation of the nu
Page 163 and 164: Chapter 11 clinicians to the Public
Page 165 and 166: Chapter 11 operation with the chest
Page 167 and 168: Chapter 11 of the proportion of fal
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Chapter 11 Question 3: What is the
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Chapter 11 11.2 Some findings of th
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Chapter 11 • To improve timelines
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Summary Summary Surveillance is an
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Summary linkage of notification and
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Samenvatting Samenvatting Surveilla
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Samenvatting subgroepen binnen de b
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements W
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Curriculum vitae Rob van Hest was b
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Publications This thesis Van Hest N
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