Rob van Hest Capture-recapture Methods in Surveillance - RePub ...

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Introduction models was introduced in the 1970's, associated with the names of Anderson, Burnham, Otis, White and others. 13 For human conditions two-source capture-recapture analysis was first applied to census data. By taking another data source in addition to the census the undercount can be estimated. 14 The first use of capture-recapture analysis to human health was Sekar and Deming’s estimation of completeness of birth and death registers in 1949, 15 translating being captured in wildlife samples into being observed in two incomplete data sources or registers. Personal identifiers such as identification numbers and/or names are used as marks or tags. The use of capture-recapture analysis within epidemiology came relatively late and was introduced by Wittes and colleagues in 1968 and generalised to three registers, 16 four registers, 17 and five registers, 18 benefiting from advanced capturerecapture knowledge and improved (computerised) statistical methods. In 1972 Fienberg approached the problem of violation of some underlying assumptions through the use of a log-linear model, as it had emerged from the analysis of multidimensional contingency tables, 19,20 and since then other models have been added. 21,22 A detailed description of the methodology and mathematical framework of capture-recapture analysis and its application in epidemiological studies is given in chapter 2. In various disciplines, for example ecology, demography or epidemiology, capture-recapture analysis is known under different names, such as the Petersen estimator, mark-recapture and multiple-recapture method, dual-record system and multiple-record system method, or Bernoulli census estimates and ascertainment corrected rates. 1.3 Application of capture-recapture methods in tuberculosis surveillance Tuberculosis under-notification Already in 1952 Rene Dubos wrote, based on medical and social arguments, that “for all these reasons, it is impossible to obtain accurate data concerning the prevalence of tuberculous infection even during recent times”. 23 In 1981 Styblo and Rouillon said that “for Africa, Asia and Latin America the reported tuberculosis incidence figures were, with a few exceptions, totally unreliable and incomplete, and should not be extrapolated to areas with no notification of tuberculosis and, most important, should not be taken into consideration to assess the trend of the incidence of tuberculosis in the world”. 24 A conventional surveillance system for tuberculosis is (mandatory) notification but tuberculosis under-notification is suspected universally, not only in high tuberculosisburden countries, although the level can differ considerably. 25,26 In various low tuberculosis-burden countries under-notification of tuberculosis has been reported, estimated through other methods than capture-recapture analysis. In the USA undernotification of tuberculosis was estimated at 37% in 1977 27 but more recent studies in several states found under-notification in the range of 7% to 0.5%. 28-30 In Europe, failure to notify tuberculosis patients has best been demonstrated in the United Kingdom, varying in different settings from 7% to 70% of the patients, 31-39 and as high as 68% to 11
Chapter 1 94% among AIDS patients with tuberculosis. 40,41 In France, local studies suggested undernotification of tuberculosis in the range of 30% to 63%. 42-44 The under-notification of tuberculosis in Italy has been estimated by the World Health Organization at 12%, but may reach between 30% and 54% in some areas of the country. 45-49 In Spain undernotification of tuberculosis has been estimated at 50%. 50,51 In the Netherlands tuberculosis under-notification was estimated at 8% between 1994 and 1998 whilst according to the World Health Organization 100% of the cases were notified in 2002. 26,52 Under-notification obscures the true burden of tuberculosis, it frustrates proper planning of the human and financial resources needed for adequate tuberculosis control, it hinders meaningful interpretation of figures and trends for surveillance and identifying priorities, it will compromise early signs of location and magnitude of outbreaks and it will also fail to reliably evaluate the effect of interventions. Compared to noncommunicable diseases, for tuberculosis under-notification has an important additional consequence. The most serious public health aspect of tuberculosis under-notification, especially for culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis patients, is that it prevents possibly indicated contact investigations around potentially infectious patients. Methods of estimating tuberculosis incidence or prevalence Apart from (mandatory) notification different methods can be used to estimate the burden of disease of tuberculosis. As for other diseases a whole population can be examined, but often this is not feasible, expensive and only representative for the area explored, 53 or the ascertainment of the number of tuberculosis patients can be achieved through exhaustive surveys. 54-58 A specific surrogate marker for the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis is the annual rate of tuberculin skin test conversion. This method assumes that a one percent annual risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis corresponds to an incidence of approximately 50 smear-positive cases of pulmonary tuberculosis per 100 000 population. 59,60 However, these risks were originally drawn from developed nations and, because of variations in the quality of intervention and varying risks of progression from latent tuberculosis infection to the active disease, it is unclear whether these figures can be reliably projected elsewhere. 61 Specific pharmacoepidemiological studies on anti-tuberculous drug use, especially daily defined doses of pyrazinamide, have been used to estimate tuberculosis incidence. 51,52,62 One of the limitations of using drug prescriptions as a marker for tuberculosis incidence is the difficulty to distinguish between chemoprophylaxis and chemotherapy. 35 The general indirect estimation technique of record-linkage has also been applied to tuberculosis. Through record-linkage it is possible to assess the case-ascertainment and come closer to the true number of cases than by using one source only. 37,45,46,48,63 For tuberculosis and other infectious diseases most often microbiology laboratory records or hospital episode registers are used to supplement notification data. However, proportions of miscoded (false-positive) tuberculosis patients in hospital episode registers of up to 62% and 27% have been reported in the USA and the United Kingdom respectively. 64-66 Pathology records compatible with tuberculosis have been mentioned as an alternative source. 32,33,36,67 Other options are pharmacy data, such as prescriptions, 30,35,38,67-69 death certificates, 28,30,33,34 AIDS registries 30,70 and billing records. 64 12
Page 1 and 2: Capture-recapture Methods in Survei
Page 3 and 4: Colofon Capture-recapture methods i
Page 5 and 6: Promotiecommissie Promotor: Prof.dr
Page 8: Contents Page 1 Introduction 9 2 Me
Page 11: Chapter 1 1.1 Assessing completenes
Page 15 and 16: Table 1.1 Objectives, methods, data
Page 17 and 18: Researchers Objective Method Data-s
Page 19 and 20: Chapter 1 source capture-recapture
Page 21 and 22: Chapter 1 32. Bradley BL, Kerr KM,
Page 24 and 25: 2 Methodology of capture-recapture
Page 26 and 27: Methodology of capture-recapture an
Page 36: Methodology of capture-recapture an
Page 39 and 40: Chapter 3 3.1 Application of captur
Page 41 and 42: Table 3.1 Published capture-recaptu
Page 43 and 44: Disease Authors Objective Method Da
Page 49 and 50: Chapter 3 3.3 References 1. Hook EB
Page 51 and 52: Chapter 3 52. Reintjes R, Termorshu
Page 53 and 54: Chapter 4 Abstract The aim of this
Page 55 and 56: Chapter 4 Methods Nearly all Dutch
Page 57 and 58: Chapter 4 Table 4.2 The number of m
Page 59 and 60: Chapter 4 diagnosis. Other patients
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 4 stratify the population i
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Chapter 4 25. Lambeth, Southwark an
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Chapter 5 Abstract To estimate inci
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Chapter 5 patients. Capture-recaptu
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Chapter 5 Figure 5.1 Four regions o
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Chapter 5 Hospital records From 385
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Chapter 5 Table 5.1 Epidemiological
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Table 5.2 Number and proportion of
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Chapter 5 cautious about the associ
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Chapter 5 Incidence of community-ac
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Chapter 6 Abstract The aim of this
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Chapter 6 3. Hospitalised patients
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Chapter 6 Record-linkage of all 537
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Chapter 6 Figure 6.1 Schematic view
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Chapter 6 Table 6.2 Total and strat
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Chapter 6 administrative discrepanc
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Chapter 6 the patients, and complet
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7 Undetected burden of tuberculosis
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Introduction Underreporting of tube
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Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
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Table 7.1 Total and subset numbers
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Table 7.2 Capture-recapture estimat
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Chapter 8 Abstract In 1999 the Enha
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Chapter 8 bacteriological confirmat
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Chapter 8 Results Table 8.1 shows t
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Table 8.3 Annual and overall observ
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Table 8.4 Annual and overall estima
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Chapter 8 interaction however, i.e.
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Chapter 8 shows that observed under
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9 Estimating the coverage of tuberc
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Introduction Estimating targeted mo
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Estimating targeted mobile tubercul
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References Estimating targeted mobi
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10 Estimating infectious diseases i
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Introduction Estimating infectious
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Estimating infectious disease incid
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Study Disease and number of patient
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4. Gallay A, Vaillant V, Bouvet P,
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Table 10.3 Comparison of the variou
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Discussion Estimating infectious di
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Chapter 11 The aim of this thesis i
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Chapter 11 overestimation of the nu
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Chapter 11 clinicians to the Public
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Chapter 11 operation with the chest
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Chapter 11 of the proportion of fal
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Chapter 11 Question 3: What is the
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Chapter 11 11.2 Some findings of th
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Chapter 11 • To improve timelines
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Summary Summary Surveillance is an
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Summary linkage of notification and
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Samenvatting Samenvatting Surveilla
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Samenvatting subgroepen binnen de b
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements W
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Curriculum vitae Rob van Hest was b
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Publications This thesis Van Hest N
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