Rob van Hest Capture-recapture Methods in Surveillance - RePub ...

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11 General discussion
Chapter 11 The aim of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility and validity of capture-recapture methods in surveillance of tuberculosis and other infectious diseases. This chapter provides answers to the three research questions of this thesis (section 11.1), briefly discusses some findings of this thesis in the context of surveillance of tuberculosis and other infectious diseases (section 11.2) and lists the conclusions and recommendations (section 11.3). 11.1 Answering the research questions Question 1 How do the characteristics of various infectious diseases and their registers in the Netherlands influence the feasibility and validity of capture-recapture analysis? Different characteristics of disease, patients and registrations can influence the feasibility and validity of capture-recapture analysis as a method to estimate infectious disease incidence and completeness of registration. In this thesis we performed three three-source log-linear capture-recapture studies on infectious diseases in the Netherlands: malaria, Legionnaires’ disease and tuberculosis. First the feasibility of these studies will be discussed. After that the validity of the results of these studies will be addressed by discussing possible violation of the underlying capture-recapture assumptions; the closed population assumption, the perfect record-linkage assumption, the perfect positive predictive value assumption, the absence of specific interdependencies assumption and the homogeneous population assumption. Feasibility The capture-recapture study on tuberculosis incidence had the best feasibility. The Netherlands is a country with a well-organised system of tuberculosis control and seven existing tuberculosis or tuberculosis-related national registers or datasets were available for record-linkage or cross-validation. For the study on malaria incidence insufficient data sources were available for three-source log-linear capture-recapture analysis and, in the absence of a national malaria reference laboratory (as exists for tuberculosis), a survey among microbiology laboratories was necessary to create the third dataset. The capturerecapture study on Legionnaires’ disease incidence even needed three surveys. Similar to the malaria study, in the absence of a national Legionella reference laboratory, an additional (third) dataset had to be created through a laboratory survey. Due to insufficient identifiers for reliable record-linkage in the notification register and the absence of a specific International Code for Diseases (ICD-9 code) in the hospital episode statistics, two further surveys were performed: one collecting additional data, such as date of birth, of notified Legionnaires’ disease patients from the Public Health Services and a second one requesting chest-physicians to voluntarily report hospitalised Legionnaires’ disease patients. Additional surveys cost time and money. They risk poor response (the survey among the chest-physicians yielded no additional Legionnaires’ disease patients indicating that unlike laboratories, with good response rates in the two surveys mentioned, clinicians may not be a useful source of information for capture-recapture 158
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Capture-recapture Methods in Survei
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Colofon Capture-recapture methods i
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Promotiecommissie Promotor: Prof.dr
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Contents Page 1 Introduction 9 2 Me
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Chapter 1 1.1 Assessing completenes
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Chapter 1 94% among AIDS patients w
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Table 1.1 Objectives, methods, data
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Researchers Objective Method Data-s
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Chapter 1 source capture-recapture
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Chapter 1 32. Bradley BL, Kerr KM,
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2 Methodology of capture-recapture
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Methodology of capture-recapture an
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Chapter 3 3.1 Application of captur
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Table 3.1 Published capture-recaptu
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Disease Authors Objective Method Da
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Chapter 3 3.3 References 1. Hook EB
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Chapter 3 52. Reintjes R, Termorshu
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Chapter 4 Abstract The aim of this
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Chapter 4 Methods Nearly all Dutch
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Chapter 4 Table 4.2 The number of m
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Chapter 4 diagnosis. Other patients
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Chapter 4 stratify the population i
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Chapter 4 25. Lambeth, Southwark an
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Chapter 5 Abstract To estimate inci
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Chapter 5 patients. Capture-recaptu
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Chapter 5 Figure 5.1 Four regions o
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Chapter 5 Hospital records From 385
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Chapter 5 Table 5.1 Epidemiological
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Table 5.2 Number and proportion of
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Chapter 5 cautious about the associ
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Chapter 5 Incidence of community-ac
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Chapter 6 Abstract The aim of this
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Chapter 6 3. Hospitalised patients
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Chapter 6 Record-linkage of all 537
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Chapter 6 Figure 6.1 Schematic view
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Chapter 6 Table 6.2 Total and strat
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Chapter 6 administrative discrepanc
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Chapter 6 the patients, and complet
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7 Undetected burden of tuberculosis
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Introduction Underreporting of tube
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Underreporting of tuberculosis in t
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Table 7.1 Total and subset numbers
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Table 7.2 Capture-recapture estimat
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Page 113 and 114: Chapter 8 bacteriological confirmat
Page 115 and 116: Chapter 8 Results Table 8.1 shows t
Page 117 and 118: Table 8.3 Annual and overall observ
Page 119 and 120: Table 8.4 Annual and overall estima
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Page 123 and 124: Chapter 8 shows that observed under
Page 126 and 127: 9 Estimating the coverage of tuberc
Page 128 and 129: Introduction Estimating targeted mo
Page 130 and 131: Estimating targeted mobile tubercul
Page 136 and 137: References Estimating targeted mobi
Page 138 and 139: 10 Estimating infectious diseases i
Page 140 and 141: Introduction Estimating infectious
Page 142 and 143: Estimating infectious disease incid
Page 144 and 145: Study Disease and number of patient
Page 146 and 147: 4. Gallay A, Vaillant V, Bouvet P,
Page 148 and 149: Table 10.3 Comparison of the variou
Page 150 and 151: Discussion Estimating infectious di
Page 156: Estimating infectious disease incid
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 11 overestimation of the nu
Page 163 and 164: Chapter 11 clinicians to the Public
Page 165 and 166: Chapter 11 operation with the chest
Page 167 and 168: Chapter 11 of the proportion of fal
Page 169 and 170: Chapter 11 Question 3: What is the
Page 171 and 172: Chapter 11 11.2 Some findings of th
Page 173 and 174: Chapter 11 • To improve timelines
Page 176 and 177: Summary Summary Surveillance is an
Page 178 and 179: Summary linkage of notification and
Page 180 and 181: Samenvatting Samenvatting Surveilla
Page 182 and 183: Samenvatting subgroepen binnen de b
Page 184 and 185: Acknowledgements Acknowledgements W
Page 186 and 187: Curriculum vitae Rob van Hest was b
Page 188 and 189: Publications This thesis Van Hest N
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