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The Potential for Scale and Sustainability in Weather Index Insurance

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THE POTENTIAL FOR SCALE AND SUSTAINABILITY IN WEATHER INDEX INSURANCE<br />

FOR AGRICULTURE AND RURAL LIVELIHOODS<br />

evaporation <strong>and</strong> soil temperature every three hours from 06.00 to 18.00. <strong>The</strong> rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />

430 weather stations are ma<strong>in</strong>ly Class 3 stations: they collect data on ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>and</strong><br />

temperature only. <strong>The</strong>re have been a few trials with other types of automatic weather<br />

stations, but these have not yet been scaled up, let alone ma<strong>in</strong>streamed.<br />

Other weather stations that are not part of the NMA network are also available, s<strong>in</strong>ce<br />

NMA is not the only governmental agency manag<strong>in</strong>g weather stations. However, there is no<br />

comprehensive overview of all the stations <strong>in</strong> terms of number, models <strong>and</strong> quality.<br />

NMA records are open to the public. However, accord<strong>in</strong>g to the agency’s data policy,<br />

users do not have the right to give meteorological data to a third party. All rout<strong>in</strong>e <strong>and</strong> daily<br />

weather <strong>for</strong>ecasts may be requested by telephone. Data quality is also a concern. Most<br />

weather station records have major gaps, sometimes exceed<strong>in</strong>g several months. <strong>Insurance</strong><br />

premiums need to take <strong>in</strong>to account the uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty that miss<strong>in</strong>g data create – <strong>and</strong> <strong>for</strong><br />

stations miss<strong>in</strong>g 20 per cent or more data from the last 30 years, the necessary adjustment<br />

to premiums would be cost-prohibitive. Given this criterion, only about 64 stations can be<br />

used to develop weather <strong>in</strong>surance products.<br />

<strong>The</strong> HARITA pilot worked on ways to overcome limited weather data <strong>for</strong> the region. As<br />

mentioned previously, IRI has led the exploration of new techniques to enhance sparse local<br />

datasets through a comb<strong>in</strong>ation of satellite data, ra<strong>in</strong>fall simulators <strong>and</strong> statistical tools <strong>for</strong><br />

<strong>in</strong>corporat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>mation from stations nearby. Satellite data will also be used to better<br />

underst<strong>and</strong> the correlation between ra<strong>in</strong> gauges <strong>and</strong> losses on specific farms.<br />

Another <strong>in</strong>itiative seeks to purchase 20 Class 1 weather stations <strong>for</strong> pastoralist areas, either<br />

to replace outdated models or <strong>in</strong>troduce all new ones. <strong>The</strong>se new, low-cost high-quality<br />

stations will replace old or malfunction<strong>in</strong>g ones (or they will be <strong>in</strong>stalled <strong>in</strong> pastoralist areas,<br />

s<strong>in</strong>ce one of the aims is to improve the early warn<strong>in</strong>g system <strong>for</strong> these areas, which have been<br />

neglected). <strong>The</strong> Ethiopian <strong>Insurance</strong> Company is also keen to exp<strong>and</strong> the network of weather<br />

stations <strong>in</strong> the country <strong>and</strong> has already held talks with the World Bank to this end.<br />

Regulation<br />

A general, <strong>in</strong>ternationally-recognized regulation <strong>for</strong> <strong>in</strong>dex <strong>in</strong>surance products does not exist<br />

<strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. Nevertheless, <strong>in</strong>dex <strong>in</strong>surance is grow<strong>in</strong>g. However, cont<strong>in</strong>u<strong>in</strong>g such product<br />

development without appropriate regulation would be a risk <strong>for</strong> its future scalability <strong>and</strong><br />

susta<strong>in</strong>ability. Consumers should be <strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>med of the products <strong>and</strong> of how they can reduce<br />

their risks. Build<strong>in</strong>g the weather risk-management product without regulatory support<br />

would develop either risk of product <strong>in</strong>comprehension or reduced product appreciation.<br />

Appropriate support <strong>and</strong> commitment, enhanced by the regulator, will encourage the<br />

partnership of high-level counterparts <strong>in</strong> this sphere, hopefully lead<strong>in</strong>g to an official riskmanagement<br />

environment, as well as to market growth. 30<br />

30 United Nations. 2007. Develop<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>dex-based <strong>in</strong>surance <strong>for</strong> agriculture <strong>in</strong> develop<strong>in</strong>g countries, by E. Bryla <strong>and</strong><br />

J. Syroka. Susta<strong>in</strong>able Development Innovation Briefs No. 2, March. New York: Policy Integration <strong>and</strong> Analysis<br />

Branch, Division <strong>for</strong> Susta<strong>in</strong>able Development, Department of Economic <strong>and</strong> Social Affairs,<br />

www.un.org/esa/sustdev/publications/<strong>in</strong>novationbriefs/no2.pdf.<br />

ANNEX<br />

93

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