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Perceptions of personal risk from sexual transmission of HIV 37
or circumstances. This is illustràted in the research of Macdonald
(1982) and Jedlick and Robinson (1987) who found that young adults
had difficulty conceptualizing of se x, described as an "act of love", as
associated with disease. Finally, in the third, the anchor-point
heu ris tic, one's own susceptibility is assessed relative to a personal
"safe baseline" of behavior, which may or may not be objectively safe.
Tyndale' s research on contraception (1981) and Joseph et al.' s on
responses to AlOS (1987) demonstrate the use of peer and own
experience as anchoring points. Tyndale found that individu aIs who
had not themselves ever been pregnant and who were not aware of
any friends who had been, perceived their own and their friends'
actions as not likely to produce pregnancy. Their actions became the
anchoring points for judging whether contraception was required.
Similarly, Joseph et al. found that prior or baseline sexual behavior
functioned as a "safe" anchoring point for evaluating whether
changes were required (1987, p. 247). Prior research on AlOS suggests
that the judgmental heuristics are used to produce what Weinstein
refers to as an "optimistic bias", i.e. a belief that one is not susceptible
(Posterski and Bibby, 1988, p. 44; Bauman and Siegel, 1987, p. 340-343;
Results Group, 1987, p. 24).
Taken together, the approaches of the Health Belief Model and of
Classical Decision Theory lead to questions of the relative influence
and potential integration of cues and judgmental heuristics in
understanding the development of personal risk perception.
Hypotheses and Models
The separate influences of cues and heuristics on risk perception
were tested in three hypotheses. The first, based on the Health Belief
Model, addressed cues:
HYPOTHESIS 1: Exposure to cues (measured by participation in AIDS
education, having heard of Safer-Sex, having been tested for HIV, and
knowing others who have been tested) increases the likelihood of
perceiving of oneself as at risk to HIV infection.
The second was based on the anchoring point heuristic:
HYPOTHESIS 2: Having already engaged in risky actions (measured as
participation in coitus or anal intercourse and having had more than one
coital partner) reduces the likelihood of perceiving of oneself as at risk.
The third was based on the representativeness and availability
heuristics: