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40 Revue sexologique / Sexological Review
coital experience were modeled. The cues with the best fit between
expected and observed frequencies were then modeled together with
the remaining indicators of prior sexual activity and current
relationship status. In each of the analyses, a hierarchy of models was
tested to assess the size and significance of the exclusive effec of each
independent variable, the main effects of several or aIl the
independent variables combined, and the interaction effects of
various independent variables. Expected ceIl frequencies were
compared to observed frequencies under each set of conditions using a
likelihood ratio X2 test to determine the preferred model (Alba, 1987;
Knoke and Burke, 1980). Data were analyzed separately for men and
women in all logit procedures.
Analysis of interviews followed the method of constant comparison
of Glaser and Strauss (1967). The focus of analysis was on
understanding interviewees' common-sense knowledge about HIV
risk, the heuristics applied to establishing a perception of risk, and the
strategies employed for risk reduction.
SURVEY RESULTS
As seen i Table 1, there was no evidence of a general optimistic
bias in the young adults responding to the survey. For the en tire
sample, as wel1 as for those who had participated in coitus or anal
intercourse, there was a near equal number who perceived they were
and were not at risk. Perception of susceptibility was, however,
significantly associated with two of the four cues, contact with others
who had been tested for HIV infection, and having been tested
oneself. Though 63% of respondents had participated in AIDS
education programmes and 64% had heard of Safer-Sex, neither of
these were associated with risk perception. As already noted, there was
no association with coital experience, but for those who were coitally
active, perceived susceptibility was associated with having had more
than one partner. Finally, there was a negative association between
currently being in a relationship and perceived susceptibility. From
these bivariate analyses there is support for the first and third
hypotheses but not for the second. In fact, the number of partners
appears to be functioning as a cue (more than one partner triggering a
perception of personal risk) rather than an anchor point (Hypothesis 1
rather than 2). Of note in Table 1, are the low percentages reporting
anal intercourse and testing for HIV, necessitating the exclusion of
these variables from multivariate logit analysis.